Everyone thinks that a Conservative MP will floor-cross. Any bets on who it will be? Jonathan Rowe? Richard Bragdon? More on reddit.com

First of all, it is very difficult to estimate how well or poorly 2026 will go. Anything beyond that is simply compounded upon with even more factors. Both Obama and Biden during their times as president made big progress with their agenda. Obamacare still being a thorn to the GOP to date. The majority of Trump's fuckery is via executive orders. The next president can come in with all of them preprinted and undo them in an hour without blinking an eye, Coming after Trump himself will be impossible, but not after his stooges. He has sold everyone down river to save his ass, making an example out of them will have to suffice. But the big point is MAGA. MAGA will implode without Trump. MAGA is a cult focused only on him. Their effect only exists if he is running, his endorsements haven't meant a thing. When he can't run anymore, that is it for both MAGA and the GOP. That voting block will go back to being inactive. More on reddit.com

What we're asking here is "will MAGA-Fever cool off, or will Republicans continue to act insane?" (I date mainstream Republican insanity to 2018, when they experienced a huge wave of House retirements.) The prominent Democrats, except for Newsom, certainly seem to think so. I wish they'd share whatever inside knowledge they have. If Republicans succeed in gerrymandering 8 seats to the Democrats' 5, and the generic house ballot holds at D+3, and we account for no Trump On The Ballot Effect in the off-cycle, I think the Dems come out in control, 2-3 seats ahead. This by itself means little though - Trump's executive is lawless, and the Republican Senate (which is not going to flip. Dems net two seats at most) shows no interest in asserting itself. It would take impeachment and conviction to stop the rescissions, quasi-recess-appointments, and arbitrary defunding. Right now it's only the courts that are preventing the genesis of martial law. I don't know what mechanism put Jimmy Kimmel back on the air, but whatever it is, that is also still functioning. We are all waiting to see whether Trump steps down in 2028 whether MAGA falls apart without him on the ballot whether Trump can overwhelm the courts whether Democrats can activate a mass, direct-action movement, and what it is capable of achieving. More on reddit.com

Post is flaired QUESTION. Stick to the question. Keep your bias in check. Please report bad faith commenters Don’t reply to my mod post with your politics. It’s been through enough .. like me, before coffee, on a Monday. More on reddit.com