Videos
List and analysis of major stock market crashes in India over time
Factsheet
Americans are more inclined to anticipate a crash which can be seen from warren buffet's position nd this gentleman author -
https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-offloads-billions-in-stocks-for-12th-straight-quarter-what-does-it-signal-11762074054211.html
https://www.livemint.com/market/millions-will-be-wiped-out-rich-dad-poor-dad-author-robert-kiyosaki-warns-of-market-crash-shares-safe-bets-11762068095675.html
Now rich dad poor dad author keeps predicting a crash every alternate month but should we take him seriously this time?
Valuations of apple, nvidia, microsoft and tesla are already stretched.
But the valuations of Indian companies are just crazy. Let's forget about zomato or lenskart for minute, just look at nifty 50 companies. Trent at above 100, fmcg company hul at 54, infra companies like tata steel is at 47! I have been in the market for the last 12 years but I have never ever seen such valuations.
what's the reason for such high valuations? Mutual fund money? Or is it not high valuation at all?
Has p/e ratio become an obsolete marker in Indian stock market?
Do you think a crash is imminent despite flat returns past 1 year? Why? And if it does happen in American market, is India shielded from such crash?
Many Youtubers and experts are saying that a market Crash is about to come. They said "We are in a bubble that is itself in a bubble" and this crash will be larger than 2008. What are your views on this.
Seeing a lot of fear-mongering about the "impending market crash" on Twitter/LinkedIn. I decided to fact-check the claims and figure out what this means specifically for Indian investors.
TL;DR:
- Shiller PE is at 40.42 (elevated, but not a timing tool)
- Yield curve inverted for 2+ years (longest ever, but no recession yet)
- Magnificent 7 = 35% of S&P 500 (dangerous concentration)
- AI bubble has circular financing red flags (Nvidia → OpenAI → Nvidia)
- Buffett holding 28% cash (highest ever)
- Action: Reduce US exposure from 20% to 10%, increase gold/debt/cash
Not panic-selling. Just rebalancing based on elevated risk.
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THE CLAIMS VS REALITY
Claim 1: "Shiller PE above 32 means crash is guaranteed!"
What's TRUE: Current CAPE is 40.42, which is 47.2% above 20-year average. This is expensive.
What's FALSE: It doesn't "guarantee" a crash or give you a timing signal. Markets stayed elevated for years in the 1990s.
What it actually means: Valuations are stretched. Future returns likely to be lower than past decade. Risk of correction has increased, but timing is unpredictable.
Think of it like a fuel gauge on empty—you know you're running low, but not the exact second you'll stop.
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Claim 2: "Yield curve inversion means recession in 18 months!"
What's TRUE: US 2yr-10yr curve inverted Oct 2022 to Dec 2024 (longest inversion in modern history). Inversions have preceded every recession in past 50 years.
What's FALSE: The "18 months from Dec 2024 = crash" claim is speculation, not fact.
What happened: 24 months after Oct 2022 = No recession (yet). US economy grew 2.5% in 2024. Some economists think AI boom/fiscal stimulus extended the cycle.
The honest answer: Nobody knows exact timing. This is why risk management > market timing.
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Claim 3: "Magnificent 7 = 47% of S&P 500!"
What's TRUE: There's dangerous market concentration.
What's FALSE: The "47%" number. Actual market cap weight = 35% (still very high).
Where the confusion comes from: The Mag 7 drove ~75% of S&P gains from Oct 2022 to Nov 2024. People confused "share of gains" with "share of market cap."
Why it matters: If these 7 stocks fall 20%, entire S&P could drop 15% even if other 493 stay flat. Similar to 1999-2000 when Nasdaq crashed 78%.
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THE AI BUBBLE NOBODY'S TALKING ABOUT
This is the part that actually worries me.
The Nvidia-OpenAI circular financing scheme:
Nvidia invests $100B in OpenAI (along with Microsoft)
OpenAI uses that $100B to buy Nvidia GPUs (contractual requirement)
Nvidia reports "$20B in AI revenue growth!"
Wall Street celebrates, stock soars 200%
Reality check: Nvidia funded its own revenue
This is a closed-loop system. Not sustainable.
The math:
- $400B+ annual AI capex spending by tech giants
- $20B actual AI revenue generated (OpenAI's reported figure)
- 20:1 spending-to-revenue ratio
- OpenAI plans $1.4 trillion data center spending over 8 years
Where will this money come from? When investors realize AI companies can't generate enough revenue to justify valuations, that's when it breaks.
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WHAT WARREN BUFFETT IS DOING
Berkshire Hathaway's cash: $325 billion (28% of portfolio) — highest allocation EVER.
What this tells us:
- He can't find attractively priced investments
- He's preparing for post-crash opportunities
- He's de-risking (sold Apple, Bank of America)
- He's NOT market-timing—just being cautious
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HOW THIS AFFECTS INDIAN INVESTORS
"But I don't own US stocks!"
You probably do, indirectly:
US-focused mutual funds: Kotak Nasdaq 100, Motilal Oswal S&P 500, PPFAS Flexicap
Indian funds with US holdings: PPFAS has 30% US allocation, Parag Parikh owns Amazon/Google/Meta
Company ESOPs: Amazon India, Microsoft India employees = US parent stock
Nifty 50 contagion: In March 2020, S&P fell 34%, Nifty fell 38%. Correlation = 0.85.
Compare valuations:
- S&P 500 CAPE: 40.4 (+136% above historical average)
- Nifty 50 PE: 23.5 (+13.5% above average)
India is expensive but LESS overvalued. If US crashes 30%, India likely drops 15-25% due to FII outflows.
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MY ACTION PLAN (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE)
I'm not panic-selling. I'm rebalancing based on elevated risk.
Portfolio shift (over next 2-3 months):
Before:
- Indian Equity: 60%
- US Stocks/MFs: 20%
- Gold: 10%
- Debt: 10%
After:
- Indian Equity: 50% (reduce but don't exit—India growth story intact)
- US Stocks/MFs: 10% (cut by half—highest crash risk)
- Gold: 15% (crisis hedge, negative correlation)
- Debt/FDs: 20% (dry powder for buying dips)
- Cash: 5% (opportunity fund)
SIP changes (₹20k/month example):
Before:
- ₹12k → Indian large-cap
- ₹5k → US Nasdaq 100
- ₹3k → Mid-cap
After:
- ₹10k → Indian large-cap
- ₹2k → US fund (cut 60%)
- ₹3k → Gold ETF/SGBs
- ₹3k → Debt fund
- ₹2k → Cash (buy dip fund)
NOT stopping SIPs. Redirecting them.
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"WHAT IF YOU'RE WRONG?"
Fair question.
If crash happens (30-40% drop):
- I followed this: Portfolio drops 15-20% (manageable)
- I ignored this: Portfolio drops 30-40% (devastating)
- Winner: Me, by a mile
If markets rally another 20%:
- I followed this: I gain 12-15% (decent)
- I ignored this: I gain 20% (better)
- Winner: I lost 5-8% upside (annoying but not catastrophic)
Asymmetric risk-reward: If I'm wrong, I miss 5-8% upside. If I'm right, I avoid 30-40% downside.
That's a 4:1 risk-reward ratio. Worth taking.
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SOURCES (ALL FACT-CHECKED):
- Shiller PE data: Yale University (Robert Shiller's official dataset)
- Magnificent 7 market cap: Multiple sources confirm 35%, not 47%
- Yield curve: Fed data, inverted Oct 2022 - Dec 2024
- Buffett cash: Berkshire Q3 2024 filing
- AI bubble: Reuters, Bloomberg coverage of Nvidia-OpenAI deals
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DISCLAIMER:
This is educational analysis, not financial advice. I'm not a SEBI-registered advisor. Market timing is impossible—these are risk indicators, not crystal balls.
Do your own research. Consult a professional before making portfolio changes.
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Questions I'm expecting:
1. "Should I sell all US stocks?" → No. Reduce from 20% to 10% gradually.
2. "Is Nifty also at risk?" → Yes, but less overvalued. Will drop 15-25% if US crashes 30%.
3. "Stop SIPs?" → Never. Redirect them to safer allocations.
4. "How much gold?" → 10-15% of portfolio. It's insurance, not investment.
5. "When to go aggressive again?" → When CAPE falls below 25, market breadth improves, Fed cuts rates.
Happy to discuss in comments. What's your defensive strategy?
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[Full analysis with all calculations + tools: https://www.toolsforindia.com/blog/3-warning-signs-market-crash-indian-investors.html]