"it is always mentioned that this bubble will inevitably burst and it is always said that is coming soon" It has been "imminent" and "inevitable" for half a decade on here and then when you do actually get a fairly major decline (December 2018, March of 2020), at the bottom people are certain it's going lower and get very frustrated when the rebound happens. 'It is instead the emergence of unknown unknowns - new and novel risk factors that investors were not previously aware of and had not factored into their expectations/risk appetites, that drive crashes. A crash occurs because it triggers a rapid and synchronous de-risking of portfolios, as people react to the new, unanticipated risk factor, and reposition their portfolios to reflect the increased degree of uncertainty, including the endogenous uncertainty associated with extreme asset price volatility itself (i.e. regardless of its cause, many investors cannot/will not tolerate extremely high degrees of volatility/price declines, and this creates the feedback loop necessary for a crash to occur - i.e. when selling and falling prices beget yet more selling, as de-risking accelerates). Investors get scared, and they decide to increase their cash allocations from (say) 5% to 20%, to 'preserve capital' in the face of the newly-uncertain environment, and 'prepare for future opportunities amidst the coming downturn'. They do this because they believe an abundance of caution to now be warranted given what has become an extremely uncertain/risky outlook, and also because they mistakenly believe that because the economic fallout is likely to last quite some time, that markets will also inevitably continue to go down/remain weak for a long time to come as well. Ego, 'future opportunities' will be significant, and cash will allow them to take advantage of them. The problem with this perspective and behaviour is that it is classic 'first-level thinking', instead of the more desirable second-level thinking necessary in markets (hat tip Howard Marks). What investors fail to understand is that it is precisely the synchronised move to higher cash allocations and a more defensive positioning mirroring their cautious outlook - which they themselves were very much a part of - that caused the market to crash in the first place. If everyone increases cash allocations from 5% to 20% at the same time, markets will crash, regardless of the cause. And that has absolutely been the case, from retail to institutional investors, to insurance companies and other institutions alike (QBE Insurance, for instance, recently came out and said they had "materially de-risked the investment book including exiting all equities, emerging market and high yield debt"; HK Exchanges similarly exited 100% of its equity exposure in March and early April). The thoughtful market observer would ask the question, so what happens next? Most of these investors don't plan to continue to hold 20% cash indefinitely. They are looking to re-deploy it back into equities at a time they perceive to be more opportune. What they really mean when they say that is 'when the outlook is less uncertain and they feel more comfortable', but what they overlook is that sellers will also feel more comfortable at this point; however, the important practical point is that it means they will be future net buyers of equities. Furthermore, they have already sold as much stock as they want/need to sell in order to feel comfortable with their remaining exposure in the face of what they expect will be considerable economic fallout in the medium term. Given their already very cautious outlook, it is therefore unlikely they will sell a whole lot more in the future. What has happened at this point is that a previously unknown unknown has now become a known unknown, and consequently is now already factored into investor risk appetite and market positioning, and so it ceases to have much impact on market prices. And this is true regardless of whether the underlying economy is weak or not, because the economy does not drive stocks prices - demand and supply do. At this point, and in contrast to the intuitions most recently-scared investors harbour, a further market crash actually becomes extremely unlikely, and those sitting in cash hoping for more of the same are very likely to have their hopes dashed. This is why markets almost always bottom well before the real economy, and recover in a manner that confounds most investors. Right when the majority of investors have just finished selling down, raising cash, and positioning themselves cautiously and in preparation for the 'coming downturn' and the 'buying opportunities' sure to emerge therefrom, markets start to rally and the opportunities they had hoped and expected to encounter swiftly disappear. The buying opportunities are not created by the economic downturn per se, but investors preparing for the economic downturn by raising cash. They are left high and dry holding a bunch of cash. They are confused, and perhaps even angry at the market for behaving so irrationally, and ignoring how bad things are in the real economy. They claim investors are ignoring economic realities. They say the rally must be a dead cat bounce. They say bear market rallies are common and investors are being fooled by it. They say investors are too optimistic on the speed of the recovery. They say it's because investors are overly acclimated to 'buying the dip', etc. They use every excuse they can muster to avoid admitting to themselves the sad reality that they may have sold at the bottom, just like patsies do every bear market. What they are really doing is hoping markets go back down so they have a second chance to buy stocks as cheap as they were recently trading, but with so many cashed-up investors similarly hoping for a further pull back, such an outcome is inherently self-defeating. There is simply too much cash on the sidelines waiting for an opportunity to buy the second dip for markets to go down enough to retest their lows." ( https://lt3000.blogspot.com/2020/05/coronavirus-update-from-unknown-unknown.html )
Think about how markets actually work Buyers and sellers exchange assets (in this case cash for stocks), and they are always matched 50-50. If you have a situation where they are more buyers than sellers, the price goes up, and vice-versa What normally happens is that, if prices go down (if there are more sellers than buyers at $x), new buyers are soon found at lower levels and at same time sellers disappear. Hence the price stabilises, or reverses and starts to rise again In a crash, that imbalance of buyers and sellers doesn't correct itself. Instead, more sellers than buyers appear as the price finds lower levels. That can cause a cascade effect, which is the crash