China has not invaded Taiwan, and as of early 2026, no invasion has occurred. While China continues to assert its claim over Taiwan and has significantly increased military activities around the island—such as large-scale drills and live-fire exercises—there is no confirmed indication that a full-scale invasion is imminent.

Military Capability and Readiness:
Analyses suggest China is working to build the capability for an amphibious invasion, with a target of being ready by 2027, according to U.S. intelligence assessments. However, multiple evaluations, including a December 2024 Pentagon report, indicate that corruption, logistical shortcomings, and lack of joint-force experience currently hinder China’s ability to successfully execute such an operation.

Strategic Deterrence:
The U.S. is legally committed to helping Taiwan defend itself under the Taiwan Relations Act, and there is strong international concern over the global economic impact—especially on the semiconductor industry—if conflict erupts. Taiwan is also strengthening its defenses, adopting a "porcupine strategy" with asymmetric warfare capabilities to deter invasion.

Political Triggers:
China has stated it will use "non-peaceful means" if Taiwan formally declares independence. For now, Beijing continues a campaign of gray-zone coercion—military drills, airspace incursions, and diplomatic pressure—aimed at wearing down Taiwan’s resolve without triggering open war.

Expert and Public Opinion:
Surveys show most Taiwanese believe an invasion is unlikely in the near term, and many analysts argue that the costs of invasion far outweigh the benefits for China. Betting markets and expert assessments continue to treat an invasion before 2027 as possible but not probable.