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How to calculate confidence interval?
To calculate a confidence interval (two-sided), you need to follow these steps:
- Let's say the sample size is
100. - Find the mean value of your sample. Assume it's
3. - Determine the standard deviation of the sample. Let's say it's
0.5. - Choose the confidence level. The most common confidence level is
95%. - In the statistical table find the Z(0.95)-score, i.e., the 97.5th quantile of N(0,1) โ in our case, it's
1.959. - Compute the standard error as
ฯ/โn = 0.5/โ100 = 0.05. - Multiply this value by the z-score to obtain the margin of error:
0.05 ร 1.959 = 0.098. - Add and subtract the margin of error from the mean value to obtain the confidence interval. In our case, the confidence interval is between 2.902 and 3.098.
What will decrease the width of a confidence interval?
The width of a confidence interval decreases when the margin of error decreases, which happens when the:
- Significance level decreases;
- Sample size increases; or
- Sample variance decreases.
The sample mean has no impact on the width of a confidence interval!
What will increase the width of a confidence interval?
The width of a confidence interval increases when the margin of error increases, which happens when the:
- Significance level increases;
- Sample size decreases; or
- Sample variance increases.
Your problem is that you are subtracting the full standard deviation from the mean. When you do that, it means that you are multiplying the standard deviation by 2, since you are subtracting $1*std(x)$ and adding $1*std(x)$.
Instead, add/subtract $\frac{1}{2}*std(x)$.
Thus, your new normals are:
$$lowerNormal=26.82โ\frac{41.16}{2}=6.24$$ $$upperNormal=26.82+\frac{41.16}{2}=47.4$$
I believe above is set of random number. Standard deviation is appropriate for the numbers which are dependent such as daily road traffic. Please also consider Correlation for less dependent numbers.