Recession is often defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction—declining real GDP. The nation’s GDP fell 1.6 percent on an annualized basis in first quarter 2022 and was followed by a 0.9 percent drop in the second quarter.

September 24, 2025 - The 2022 stock market decline was a bear market that included the decline of several stock market indices worldwide between January and October 2022. The decline was due to the highest inflation readings as part of the 2021–2023 inflation surge and the resulting increases in interest rates, ...

April 23, 2024 - It's also not the first time that two consecutive quarters of decline were not called a recession and a recession can even be shorter than 2 quarters.

September 26, 2024 - One of the adjustments: GDP is now estimated to have grown in the second quarter of 2022 at a 0.3% annual rate. It had previously been estimated to have shrunk at a 0.6% rate, the second of two quarters of contraction.

September 26, 2024 - Specifically, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the annualized pace of GDP growth was negative in Q2 of 2022, which followed a negative print in Q1. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth means the economy is in recession, ...

September 18, 2025 - The U.S. has not been in an economic recession since 2022.

September 27, 2024 - “The bottom line is that, with the announcement on July 28 of a two-quarter GDP decline, we can be highly confident that the US economy entered a recession early in 2022.” The NBER did not declare a recession.

September 15, 2022 - Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the ...

July 20, 2022 - The median probability of a recession over the next 12 months is 47.5%, up from 30% in June, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists completed last week.

October 10, 2022 - The cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook. Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023.

February 3, 2023 - The US’s GDP did decline for two consecutive quarters last year, the traditional definition of a recession. But even if the jobs market was weaker than initially reported in 2022, the latest data shows that weakness was shortlived.

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July 28, 2022 - GDP shrank for a 2nd quarter in a row. While two consecutive quarters of negative growth is often considered a recession, it's not an official definition. Parts of the economy are clearly struggling.

December 9, 2025 - The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official body that calls recessions, defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months" (listen to our Planet Money episode, "Recession Referees," for more about this).

September 12, 2022 - During economic contraction, businesses tend to cut back on production and lay off workers. Contractions can lead to recession—a decline in production, employment, and income. Recessions are typically characterized by rising levels of unemployment, declining demand for goods, and declining prices.

April 30, 2025 - And even with two negative quarters, ... that here.) Back in 2022, we actually had two consecutive quarters of contraction, but no recession....

Compared with the overall economy, ... in 2012. Through 2022, consumer spending is projected to support stable job growth with increasing expenditures on labor-intensive services like health care....

In short, we are positive about the economy’s fundamentals and believe they can provide ballast in the event of a recession. Nonetheless, the bear-market bottom for stocks may still be 5%-10% away. Investors should remain patient and consider using tax-efficient rebalancing, including by harvesting losses, to neutralize their major overweight and underweight exposures. And, as we continue to emphasize, pursue maximum asset-class diversification. This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from June 27, 2022, “Inflation-Driven Recessions are Different.” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy.

December 5, 2025 - And while there are plenty of folks ... feeling recession-like symptoms (particularly those among the hundreds of thousands of layoffs we've seen proliferate of late) are already here, the more bullish take on equities overall has played out. The question moving forward, of course, is whether 2026 will be a repeat of what we've seen the past three years (2022 was kind of ...