August 2, 2023 - Definitely worse. I was quite optimistic that inflation would be transitory back at the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022—a lot of other economists were as well.

September 8, 2022 - Right now, it's too soon to know. The reason is that the eight economists associated with the National Bureau of Economic Research, or NBER, who date business cycles are still examining the data. The practice has been to rely on · their definition of a recession, which is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy and lasting more than a few months.

September 18, 2025 - The COVID-19 recession lasted two months, which makes it the shortest U.S. recession on record. The previous record was held by a six-month-long recession in 1980.

September 26, 2024 - It had previously been estimated to have shrunk at a 0.6% rate, the second of two quarters of contraction. Two straight quarters of contraction are a commonly used international rule of thumb indicating a recession.

April 30, 2025 - And even with two negative quarters, ... that here.) Back in 2022, we actually had two consecutive quarters of contraction, but no recession....

September 12, 2022 - On August 25, the second quarter growth rate was revised from -0.9% to -0.6%, indicating a smaller contraction. The next release of GDP growth for the second quarter of 2022 is scheduled on September 28. These indicators signal a robust outlook for the U.S. economy, at least for the time being, which is in line with a recovery from the Pandemic Recession.

May 30, 2025 - In the previous example, you might be thinking, "Sure, but why wouldn't I just buy back when the market bottoms out?" The answer is: It's much easier said than done. Nobody knows how far the markets will fall during tough times. The S&P 500 declined by more than 19% in 2022.

November 23, 2025 - Neuberger Berman Group LLC is a private, independent, employee-owned investment management firm. The firm manages equities, fixed income, private equity and hedge fund portfolios for global institutional investors, advisors and high-net-worth individuals.

November 16, 2025 - Figure 6 illustrates the performance of the S&P 500, measured in months since the beginning of the dot-com rally in January 1995 and since the onset of the current rally. I define the start of the current rally as October 2022, when stocks reached their post-pandemic low following a series ...

July 21, 2022 - The National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, ...

August 6, 2025 - In the case of the Pandemic Recession, ... The previous peak in economic activity occurred in February 2020. The recession lasted two months, which makes it the shortest U.S....

“As a result, we no longer see a U.S. recession, but expect material headwinds to keep growth weak through the rest of this year.” · However, future developments in U.S. policy could generate additional surprises.

September 24, 2025 - The Nikkei 225 started the year at around 29,000 but fell to 25,000 by March. It ended the year down 9%. However, by 2024, it hit all time highs. By November 2022 the Hang Seng Index was down 36% year-to-date, one of the worst performances among major stock market indices.

March 26, 2025 - It is now being cited as the top ... latest reading on consumer confidence in income, business and job prospects hitting a 12-year low....

November 19, 2025 - The shortest-ever recession was during the covid lockdown in spring 2020 only lasted two months. The longest U.S. recession ever was after the Civil War — it lasted more than five years.

Chart 5, Panel A shows the paths of our index in previous recessions and in 2022. It dipped below 100 within two months of the peak in every previous recession. By the sixth month, the average recession had a value of 98.7.

Inverted Yield Curve Inverted treasury yield curves have predicted the last five recessions. The US is currently experiencing another inverted yield curve. This means that investors taking out loans pay more for short-term loans than long-term ones. When investors put more faith in short-term loans, they convey a lack of confidence in long-term yields. Additionally, the Federal Reserve Bank has hiked rates to 5.25% since early 2022. The effects of the hike on the economy will be seen in 2024.

April 3, 2024 - New challenges to maintaining an ongoing economic expansion arose following the emergence of high inflation in 2021 and rapidly tightening monetary policy in 2022, but the economy ended 2023 with high employment and falling inflation.

3 weeks ago - We maintain our expectation of slower growth through late 2025 and early 2026 because of tariffs, even though we slightly upgraded growth in H2 2025. Fiscal policy will deliver mixed effects next year: growth support from accelerated depreciation ...

November 23, 2025 - And we are working very hard to bring it down,” he said. When Welker asked why the Trump administration was rolling back tariffs if they actually helped consumers, Bessent claimed that inflation had “nothing to do with tariffs.” He claimed Americans would see prices go down in weeks and months to come, but he was not specific about what and by how much. Earlier this month, Bessent told CNN that “sectors of the economy” are in a recession.