Reddit
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r/poker on Reddit: PrimeDope Variance Calculator
February 29, 2020 -
I am currently at 71.5BB/100hands over approximately 1500 hands live.
According to this calculator site, my chances of running at or above an observed win rate of 30BB/100hands are 94%.
How much should I read into this? Does this site actually do a good calculation of finding true win rates or is it just kind of b.s.?
Top answer 1 of 4
3
Could not be falser. 1500 hands is nowhere near enough to make an accurate assumption of winrate.
2 of 4
2
If NLHE results followed a completely Gaussian distribution , it would be fairly unlikely to observe that winrate over 1500 hands if your "true" winrate was marginal or losing. That's what the calculator is implying. I've seen evidence that poker results do tend to culminate into a bell curve. The problem is it makes too many assumptions. Player pools are not consistent. The quality of your play over 1500 hands cannot be extrapolated infinitely. Maybe in the future you face harder decisions than you have thus far. Maybe you start getting bored. Maybe you'll succumb to tilt when you hit a bad downswing. The idea of true winrate is kind of bogus, which is why you can't put too much stock into confidence interval calculators.
Twoplustwo
forumserver.twoplustwo.com › two plus two forums › other topics › probability › primedope variance calculator - bb is big blinds or big bets?
Primedope Variance Calculator - BB is big blinds or big bets? - Gambling and Probability - Probability Theory Forum
September 28, 2019 - I have been using the variance calculate here: https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/ They use BB/100 which I assume mean big bets per 10
Solid players punnished - Blogs & Stories
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Do you think bankroll management should be stricter for tournaments than for cash games?
Also, the buy ins and structure of the tournaments have a big influence on variance. Ultra turbos and PKO/bounty tournaments have a much higher variance than regular speed tournaments. A bit of the influence of these key values can be seen in the primedope tournament variance calculator. More on cardschat.com
PrimeDope Variance Calculator
Could not be falser. 1500 hands is nowhere near enough to make an accurate assumption of winrate. More on reddit.com
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May 10, 2025 - Also, the buy ins and structure of the tournaments have a big influence on variance. Ultra turbos and PKO/bounty tournaments have a much higher variance than regular speed tournaments. A bit of the influence of these key values can be seen in the primedope tournament variance calculator.
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