What is your forecast on Apple stock?

Will Apple go to 500 dollars by 2026? I'm thinking it will hit 1500 in 20 years and split 3 more times at 500. I would have 13,000 shares if it did three more 4-1 splits.

Looking at the five year chart, it looks like AAPL is almost back to all time high at $179.45 on Dec 10, 2021.

During the past two years, I don’t see Apple releasing any innovative product. Yet the economic situation and consumer spending today is obviously worse than 2021.

What do y’all think about $AAPL at $175 today? Is there more room for $AAPL to grow or is it time to trim down some positions?

What are your predictions on how much the apple stock per share will cost? I reckon it will reach 280 easily within the first 3 months and then it'll settle down.

Congrats to those that followed my last Costco post. I don’t believe anyone can really predict the ups and downs of the market, and with the current market climbing past ATH’s, the safest bets are going to be balanced long-short positions in specific equities or spread bets.

Apple

• Market cap: 3.6T

• Current P/E: ~36

• Average P/E last 5 years: 28.6

• Historical revenue growth: Flat to single digits

• Earnings growth: Low double digits

• Net Margin: 25%

 Microsoft

• Market cap: 3.2T

• Microsoft P/E: ~36

• Average P/E last 5 years: 32.8

• Historical revenue growth: 15%

• Earnings growth: 15-20%

• Net margin: 35%

Last week, Apple had a higher P/E than MSFT, before this narrowed in the last few days Relative to Microsoft. Apple is still at historically high valuations relative to MSFT, despite Microsoft having better margins and growth. And the reasons are silly. Apple is getting a massive boost due to a "potential supercycle" with no proof that it’s actually happening (even the most optimistic projections are just slightly better than last year) and mediocre software releases, while Microsoft took a large hit last quarter because it forecasted larger capex and delays in direct GenAI revenue realization.

In my view, the market is pricing in a divergent and fundamental misunderstanding of GenAI and how it makes money. The Apple bull case hypothesis is correct, it’s just applied to the wrong company. The Microsoft supercycle isn’t going to be from direct GenAI subscriptions like Co-pilot, it’s going to be share shift towards Azure and increased utilization.

To me it is hopium to believe that retail consumers will be rushing aggressively to switch or upgrade their phones over a nascent GenAI capability that is inferior to its peers (other than privacy) and unlocks nominal value, while mid-large corporates won’t be doing the exact same for Microsoft for what is widely considered a top-notch set of capabilities and proven effectiveness in several emerging use cases.

Here’s my prediction – regardless of where the market goes, I believe there is going to be a strong and continued divergence between Microsoft & Apple performance in the next few months, with at least another 5% gap between the winner and loser, with Microsoft’s P/E once against comfortably retaking the lead from Apple. Good luck and we'll see!

Tl;dr: Short Apple / Long Microsoft

P.S. Seeing a lot of people triggered by the tl;dr recommendation not having a basic understanding of what long-short position is. A balanced long-short position doesn't mean I believe Apple will go down on nominal terms, just that it will go down relative to Microsoft. Using options or a long-short position is the way to extract value when you see the spread in two equities increase.

Apple's recent 4% dividend increase signals a strong commitment to shareholder value, likely attracting renewed interest from long-term investors. The company's $100 billion stock buyback program, set to commence in 2025, should further bolster investor confidence, enhance share price stability, and support sustained demand for the stock. To mitigate risks associated with tariffs and reduce reliance on China-centric production, Apple is strategically pivoting its manufacturing operations to countries like Vietnam and India. This diversification aims to alleviate cost pressures from potential trade disruptions and improve supply chain resilience. However, Apple's heavy dependence on China for logistics and production remains a vulnerability, exposing the company to geopolitical and economic risks beyond its control. A significant external factor is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. While a potential interest rate cut could stimulate economic growth and benefit equities, an unexpected negative catalyst—such as persistent or rising inflation—could trigger market volatility and exert downward pressure on Apple's stock price. Additionally, escalating tariffs on Chinese imports pose a substantial risk, given Apple's reliance on China for its supply chain logistics. In summary, while Apple's dividend hike, buyback program, and manufacturing diversification strengthen its long-term outlook, uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve actions and China-related tariff risks warrant cautious optimism.

Apple has had 1,044% gain in 10 years; 267% in the past 5 years.

Google has had 545% in the past 10 years; 135% in the past 5 years.

Microsoft has had 725% in the past 10 years; 336% in the past 5 years.

I was thinking about it, and would it be a bad idea to just split my money in a couple stocks (still looking at the other long term companies, but probably Google and Microsoft) but just keep it there for the next 10 years or whenever I need it?

If i invest my savings of just shy of 100k, and contribute bi-weekly (each part of my paycheck I can buy more stocks) I could add about 40-50k annually.

Is this a bad idea? I understand the concept of diversifying but I also don't believe these companies will be overshadowed in the next 10 years. Is there something I'm not considering? Why do people overly diversify and routinely buy and sell? How often do people go 'ultra long' on stocks?

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think Apple is going anywhere. They aren’t going to become the next Cisco or something.

However, I am starting to get worried.

Apple is going no where, however, the hype for their products is just dwindling.

Gen Z kids are definitely addicted to Apple, but let’s be real, they are perfectly fine having a 3-4 year old IPhone and AirPods.

While I like the M series chips, that was 5 years ago at this point, and the desktop consumer market isn’t exactly a growing market.

The Vision Pro was a complete bust.

Apple services is not doing well. Apple TV is burning money. Most of the gen z people I know use Spotify, not Apple Music.

What’s next? A $2,000 foldable phone? There’s a limit to what people will spend on Apple products, and we saw that with the Vision Pro.

I don’t think a $2,000 foldable phone will do very well.

Apple will remain a trillion dollar company, however, I just don’t see much growth in the future.

Now I’m not saying to sell all of your Apple stock immediately. However, given that:

1. The Vision Pro was a dud, they’re pulling back manufacturing/production

2. iPhone sales are down almost 10%

3. Services didn’t grow as much as we thought they would

4. Apple doing a buyback instead of investing more in R&D (it seems like they’re doing a lot of buybacks lately..)

5. Slow growth in critical markets like China

6. No major product line releases in the future. The Vision Pro was a dud and was too expensive - they thought about doing a car but cancelled that. What’s the next new thing?

Do I think Apple is doomed? Absolutely not. I love their products, especially the m series MacBooks.

But these points above are a little troubling. TBH I think Microsoft has a brighter future than AAPL. They hold a bigger grip/monopoly on commercial software.

I’m just worried aapl won’t really be a growth stock anymore.

I know the Q3-Q4 guidance is what will be important for Apple, but I wanted to drop my Q2 earnings prediction:

Revenue: $97.2 billion (7% Increase YoY)

EPS: $1.71 (11.8% Increase YoY)

Services YoY growth of 14%, iPhone YoY growth of 4%, and Mac YoY growth of 11% drove this revenue growth. I estimated the mac and iPhone revenue growth based on the IDC, CounterPoint, and Canalys articles I will link below. Services gross margins at 75% was also another big factor for EPS growth. I maintained hardware margins at last year's 36.5% rate. Overall gross margin in my estimate is 47.2% which is within Apple's guidance from the Q1 call. I also linked Q2 2024 earnings for reference. I believe guidance for Q3 could be better than feared due to strong services growth and a weaker US dollar which will help offset the tariff impact to US hardware margins.

Color from Q1 call: The color we're providing today assumes that the macroeconomic outlook doesn't worsen from what we're projecting today for the current quarter. As the dollar strengthens significantly, we expect foreign exchange to be a headwind and to have a negative impact on revenue of about 2.5 percentage points on a year-over-year basis. Despite that headwind, we expect our March quarter total company revenue to grow low to mid single digits year over year. We expect services revenue to grow low double digits year over year.

When you remove the negative impact of the foreign exchange headwinds I described earlier, the year-over-year growth rate would be comparable to that of the December quarter. We expect gross margin to be between 46.5% and 47.5%. We expect operating expenses to be between $15.1 billion and $15.3 billion. We expect OI&E to be around negative $300 million, excluding any potential impact from the mark-to-market of minority investments and our tax rate to be around 16%. https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/01/30/apple-aapl-q1-2025-earnings-call-transcript/

Smartphone shipments: https://my.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS53311725

PC Shipments: https://www.counterpointresearch.com/insight/post-insight-research-notes-blogs-global-pc-shipments-up-67-yoy-in-q1-2025-amid-us-tariff-anticipation/

https://canalys.com/newsroom/worldwide-pc-shipments-q1-2025

Q2 2024 Earnings: chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.apple.com/newsroom/pdfs/fy2024-q2/FY24_Q2_Consolidated_Financial_Statements.pdf

AAPL is way down from its December high of about $200. I know there is a lot hanging over the stock, not least declining China sales and the DoJ’s intervention.

But does the current price represent good value?

After all, the DoJ investigation might drag on for so long it becomes background noise or disappear altogether, sales in China may bounce back or be balanced out by improved sales elsewhere, especially if Gemini is integrated as we’re told.

And in terms of the present, UBS maintain their price target of $190 and the stock is trading at a discounted forward p/e.

I’m tempted to get in tomorrow.

What do you think?

Basically the title. AAPL had an amazing run but has run into serious headwind these past weeks and now the downgrades from analysts.

I’ve never been one to buy into the AI hype but Apple’s implementation simply can’t work with their commitment to privacy. From a tech perspective, I believe the looser the restrictions in the name of privacy, the better the results. Which is why Siri has always sucked.

There’s only so much you can do with on-device models. Developing a pattern based on your data will help. It also helps advertisers. Again, in my opinion why Google is better at AI.

AAPL will have to just fall back on hardware and unless they unveil a folding iPhone next year, I have a bad feeling about their stock price.

The world is going into the AI era, and I just don’t see Apple in it.

It seems iPhone is close to its fullest potential, they are throwing the same phone out for many years now, and people are much less hyped about it. While back then, it was worth it to get the new one every year for the upgrades, now new iPhones are just A(n+1) processor, new colors, and a bit better camera. They look the same too, so it has lost its “status symbol” attribute too. I don’t see it changing soon. Pretty much same with iPads. Apple Watch is like.. it’s a watch, they can improve on it, but I don’t see people sitting on needles waiting when the new one will come out. They can improve battery life, make it brighter every year as the sun, make it do something with every sort of sign language hand movements (why though?) but that’s it. Macs aren’t going to save them either, they are faster for sure, but there’s not a huge market for them, or in other words, no massive growth is expected. There’s potential in VR, but in my opinion VR is very very far from being able to be an everyday wearable, and it’s for sure they won’t be the ones developing VR to that point. Why? Well, that’s my main point. Apple has never been an innovator, they were always the last to adapt something, and only when they were able to “perfect it” (even though they have massively failed many times). I’m just afraid they aren’t good positioned for either promising areas: AI, and VR. My theory is they will be afraid of AI, because it’s something that’s much harder to control, and perfect. I don’t see how Apple, being a control freak, would be able to live with something that’s not predictable. For VR, I think they will wait until they will be way late from the game. They will come out with something that’s 5 years behind, but I’m not sure they will be able to get away with it (as they were able to do with iPhones - which I cannot understand how they did till this day). They also don’t have a shovel in the AI gold rush as Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia do. I’m genuinely worried about the future of Apple, and seems like they can be the next Nokia. Just to clarify, I’m not anti Apple, I’m the one who buys all the crap they throw out (iPhone, watch, beats, Mac, iPad), that’s why I see they are getting less and less exciting. What do you think?