2025 armed conflict in the Middle East

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The Iran–Israel war (13 June – 24 June 2025), also known as the Twelve-Day War, was an armed conflict in the Middle East. The war began when Israel bombed military and nuclear … Wikipedia
Factsheet
Belligerents
Israel United States Iran
Houthis
Iraq
Jordan
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
France
Factsheet
Belligerents
Israel United States Iran
Houthis
Iraq
Jordan
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
France
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Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Iran–Israel_war
Iran–Israel war
9 hours ago - The latter Israeli strikes destroyed Iran's Russian-supplied defensive S-300 missile system, which Iran denied, paving the way for potential future Israeli strikes. Iran had consistently said that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes and that it has never intended to develop nuclear weapons. However, since 2019, it had repeatedly violated the terms of the previous nuclear deal of 2015, and in June 2025 the IAEA reported that Iran had acquired enough enriched uranium to produce nine nuclear warheads.
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Brookings
brookings.edu › home › the road to the israel-iran war
The road to the Israel-Iran war | Brookings
2 weeks ago - Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire agreement; the initial stage involves the exchange of Israeli hostages held by Hamas for Palestinian prisoners by Israel and the surge of aid into Gaza. ... Trump returns to office in Washington. After winning the November 2024 presidential election, Trump again takes office in the White House. January 29 Ahmed al-Sharaa appointed president of Syria. The rebel leader formerly known by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, is appointed president of Syria, formalizing his place as the country’s leader.
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Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs
jcpa.org › home › winners and losers of the 12-day israel-iran war
Winners and Losers of the 12-Day Israel-Iran War
June 25, 2025 - Israel compelled Iran to stop. The United States reinforced that outcome. Iran, for all its threats and weapons, could not impose its will on anyone. The true winner of this war is not only Israel or the United States.
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+972 Magazine
972mag.com › home › israel’s euphoric ‘victory’ over iran is quickly giving way to disillusionment
Israel's euphoric 'victory' over Iran is giving way to disillusionment
July 1, 2025 - But as they were already en route, Trump publicly warned Israel on his Truth Social account, “DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS,” forcing the planes to turn back. On the surface, Netanyahu appears to be the big winner of this war in Israel.
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The Guardian
theguardian.com › world › 2025 › jun › 24 › israel-us-and-iran-all-claim-to-have-won-the-war-but-who-has-really-gained
Israel, US and Iran all claim to have won the war, but who has really gained? | Iran | The Guardian
June 25, 2025 - Jeffrey Lewis, a CNS professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, said that if Iran did decide to make a dash for a bomb it would take about five months to make enough fissile material for a small nuclear arsenal. US intelligence agencies and the IAEA agree that before the Israeli attack, there was no sign that the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had ordered the construction of a warhead. The risk posed by the Israeli and US bombing campaign is that it could now change his mind, finally persuading him that only a nuclear weapon can deter Iran’s enemies.
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Chatham House
chathamhouse.org › 2025 › 06 › iran-israel-conflict-iran-has-run-out-good-options
Iran–Israel conflict: Iran has run out of good options
July 16, 2025 - Current events also demonstrate, yet again, the Islamic Republic’s strategic loneliness: it is facing the militarily superior Israel – backed by the US and some of its allies, and with tacit support from several Arab powers – completely alone.
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Reddit
reddit.com › r/askmiddleeast › if there was war between iran and israel who would win?
r/AskMiddleEast on Reddit: If there was war between Iran and Israel who would win?
June 1, 2025 -

Who would win if a war breaks out between Iran and Israel I think that Iran would destroy Israel there army is way more large and more advanced than Israel's and I think if you think otherwise you probably have not really seen Iran's army real size What are your thoughts?

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TL;DR: Iran would absolutely devastate Israel in the first hour, Israel would nuke Iran, but Iran's 85 million people spread across a massive country would survive while Israel's 9 million in a tiny area wouldn't. It's not even close. The Reality Check Everyone's Missing People seriously underestimate Iran's missiles because of propaganda or ignorance. Iran now has the largest missile arsenal in the Middle East - over 3,000 hyper-sonic missiles, and their new stuff is genuinely terrifying. Iran's Hypersonic Game-Changers The Fattah missiles are absolutely insane: Mach 15 speed (that's 11,400 mph for context) Can maneuver in and out of the atmosphere - not like traditional missiles that just follow an arc, 1,400km range covers all of Israel easily October 2024 attack proved it works: 32+ missiles got through Israel's "impenetrable" defenses The Kheibar missile is even scarier - 1,500kg warhead (absolutely massive) with 2,000km range. Why Iron Dome is Useless Here This is the part that blows my mind. Iron Dome was built for Hamas's garage-made rockets, not hypersonic ballistic missiles. It's like bringing a fly swatter to stop bullets. Iron Dome: works on slow rockets under 70km range Iran's missiles: Mach 15, maneuverable, 1,400km range It's not even the same category of weapon David's Sling and Arrow systems are better but still can't handle missiles that change direction at hypersonic speeds. The Math is Brutal Even if Israel intercepts 90% (which they can't), that's still: 100 missiles getting through in a 1,000-missile attack Each missile = 500kg+ warhead hitting cities/military bases Israel is only 20,000 square kilometers - there's nowhere to hide The Nuclear Option Doesn't Save Israel Sure, Israel could nuke Iran, but then what? Iran: 1.6 million square kilometers, 85 million people, multiple major cities Israel: 20,000 square kilometers, 9 million people, basically all in a few cities Iran could lose 20 million people and still function. Israel loses Tel Aviv and it's game over. Plus Iran would still have thousands of missiles left to turn Israel into rubble even after getting nuked. Why Iran Doesn't Even Want This War Here's the crazy part - Iran is winning without fighting. They're just sitting back watching Israel, burn through money on endless conflicts, losing (lost) international support, dealing with internal problems and emigration that's not even to mention that Israel is facing manpower and munitions issues. If this "war" has shown us anything it's how inept and amateurish the IDF is. They're STILL after a year and a half of carpet bombing getting B!tch slapped by Hamas on the daily. Why start a war when your enemy is slowly destroying itself? The October Reality Check October 2024 wasn't some failed attack - it was Iran showing they can hit whatever they want in Israel. 32 direct hits on Israeli airbases including near F-35 hangars. That was Iran being gentle. In a real war, they'd launch 500+ missiles in the first wave. Israel's defense systems would be overwhelmed in minutes. Bottom Line This isn't about who has better pilots or tactics. It's pure physics and geography. Iran has missiles that can't be stopped hitting a country too small to absorb the damage. Israel's only real defense is that Iran doesn't actually want to fight this war. The scariest part? We already saw a preview in October, and Iran was clearly holding back. In a real conflict, it would be over before Israel could even respond effectively. Edit: For people saying "but Israel has nukes!" - yes, that's literally the point. Israel would have to use nukes because conventional defense is impossible. But using nukes against a country 80x your size with 9x your population is still losing, just slower.
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Hamas alone exhausted Israel, Israel is barely fighting only due to trillions from the west
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Israel Hayom
israelhayom.com › home › commentary
Iran is already preparing for the next war with Israel
2 weeks ago - All of this, of course, made it possible for Israel, together with the US, to inflict serious damage on the enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow, as well as the conversion facility in Isfahan. However, these operational successes did not translate into a true strategic achievement, because from Tehran's perspective, Iran did not actually lose the war.
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Iran International
iranintl.com › en › 202507243824
Senior commander says Iran defeated Israel, could've fought on for 12 years | Iran International
July 24, 2025 - A senior commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and aide to the IRGC’s chief said the 12-day war with Israel ended with an absolute win for Tehran, adding Iran could have carried on the fight for years if necessary.
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JINSA
jinsa.org › home › america and israel won the battle—but iran is already plotting the next war
America and Israel Won the Battle—But Iran Is Already Plotting the Next War - JINSA
November 3, 2025 - Decades of tensions with Iran culminated in the short but sharp 12-Day War in June. The United States and Israel won the battle, but this is just one round in the war Tehran still intends to win.Iran’s atomic infrastructure is entombed in rubble.
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Foreign Affairs
foreignaffairs.com › israel-iran conflict › israel’s squandered victory
Israel’s Squandered Victory: Gains Against Iran Won’t Translate Into Regional Peace
August 5, 2025 - After its 12-day war with Iran in June, Israel is in a far superior military and regional position than it was in 1967. It has neutered its most serious regional threats, and it has been decades since an Arab state fought a war with Israel.
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War on the Rocks
warontherocks.com › home › lessons observed from the war between israel and iran
Lessons Observed from the War Between Israel and Iran
July 16, 2025 - The war demonstrated that deterrence in modern warfare is no longer a static binary. It is fluid, multifaceted, and cumulative. Israel’s ability to deliver high-impact strikes while defending its population centers showcased a powerful deterrent capacity. However, Iran’s survival, retaliation, and proxy endurance highlight the difficulty of achieving strategic resolution through force alone.
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ACLED
acleddata.com › qa › qa-twelve-days-shook-region-inside-iran-israel-war
Q&A | Twelve days that shook the region: Inside the Iran-Israel war | ACLED
Although the interception rate was reportedly around 80-90%,10 the sophistication of Iran’s missile arsenal posed a more lethal threat to Israel during these 12 days than in any previous phases since the start of the Gaza war: Rocket, missile, and drone fire from Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen over more than 600 days resulted in just over 40 Israeli civilian deaths and over 3,000 injuries.11 While the war underscored the clear superiority of Israel’s military capabilities, it also revealed the country’s limitations when confronting a distant but powerful adversary. The Israel-Iran conflict is rooted not in territorial or ethnic disputes, but in ideological hostility dating back to Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.
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Royal United Services Institute
my.rusi.org › resource › why-israel-and-iran-had-decided-to-avoid-a-long-war.html
Why Israel and Iran had Decided to Avoid a Long War
Israel had to be careful not to ... able to fight, but the IAF would have been weaker, which might have made it difficult for the IDF to win at a low cost. Meanwhile, it is ......
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European Union Institute for Security Studies
iss.europa.eu › publications › briefs › israel-and-iran-brink-preventing-next-war
Israel and Iran on the brink: Preventing the next war | European Union Institute for Security Studies
October 3, 2025 - Despite an obvious tactical win, the strategic success of the US and Israeli strikes against Iran’s nuclear threat is at best uncertain, and at worst could have major blowback. The costly war failed to bring Iran and the US closer to a deal.
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France 24
france24.com › home › middle east › looking back at israel and iran's ‘12-day war’: direct conflict breaks out between arch-enemies
Looking back at Israel and Iran's ‘12-day war’: Direct conflict breaks out between arch-enemies - France 24
1 week ago - Netanyahu claimed a "historic" triumph for his country and warned that Israel would “thwart” any future attempts by Iran to revive its nuclear program. Iran's top security body, meanwhile, said the Islamic Republic's forces had "compelled" ...
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Foreign Policy Research Institute
fpri.org › articles › shallow ramparts: air and missile defenses in the june 2025 israel-iran war
Air and Missile Defenses in the June 2025 Israel-Iran War
November 17, 2025 - Given the challenge of air defense and the lessons from the Iranian missile cities, the North Koreans could easily conclude they need to disperse their forces from their underground bases early in a crisis and ensure they ...