After being brutally downvoted on this . . .

. . . I thought, "yeah, that's interesting".

So, let's see what's under the hood, and why I'm seeing a spike in call volume on Friday along with increased chatter to go along with it. Here's the quick stats:

Market Cap: $1.33 billion
Net Income: -$363 million
Profit Margin: -7.39%
Debt: $8.27 billion with $423.7 million in cash

Right up front, the most interesting thing happening with this stock right now, is that 80% of the float is being traded on the dark pool.

The company is operating at a significant loss, which definitely justifies the 10.12% short float (28.53% dark pool short ratio). There's not really much of a question as to whether or not this is a shitty company with a shitty leadership, releasing shitty numbers. On that point, I think that both bulls and bears would wholly agree. As of today, right now, the fundamentals are decisively bearish.

(And by that, I mean that there seems to be unlimited material to work with, in order to make a bearish argument . . . based on the current figures.)

To make matters worse, the main product that they're selling . . . is movies. And if you're like me, you understand that for the last several years, the movie industry has been releasing very little worth watching anymore. It's mostly garbage now. And if I had to put my finger on what, exactly, it was, that caused the entire entertainment industry as a whole to take a nose-dive . . . I'd say that it's the insertion of politics into the very things that we go to in order to escape politics in the first place. Maybe I'm wrong on that, but that seems to be the general consensus when you ask around. It's super annoying and definitely not worth paying for.

This divergence between bearish fundamentals, price action and short volume . . . and the contrarian spike in call volume on Friday . . . has received some attention. Here's an example of that, where you can listen to some confused analysts talking about it. Ultimately though, this means that bullish sentiment is speculative.

Where does this speculation come from? Why is it happening? This post will be an attempt to explain it away. There has to be an explanation for it, after all. As a chartist, of course, I'll start with the technicals.

The weekly chart (non-logarithmic) shows wedging with an an established bottom, first tested 18 months ago and was tested and held once again on Friday, closing at 2.59. As far as technicals go, it's moments like these when you can expect a strong move in either direction. Accompanying this, is increasing volume over the last 2 months. Mind you, for those of you who see technicals as "astrology", these points are no less factual than fundamental data. For the last 18 months, the price has held here. The "astrology" comes into play when we start looking at indicators and coming up with different opinions on them - so, I left that out, just for you.

My theory on the technicals, is that this long-term support has less to do with retail investors seeing a "good deal", and more to do with institutional short-covering. At this price, and as it moves closer to zero, the downside potential simply shrank. And I really have to hand it to those MMs; they definitely know how to gracefully and quietly exit short positions in the penny stock world. (And that might have something to do with 80% of the float being traded on the dark pool right now.)

Moving on to recent happenings that might help to explain away some of the speculation and serve to make bullish arguments at this point in the price action:

1. AMC remains the largest theatrical-exhibition company in the U.S., and #2 in the world. It was the largest in the world until Cineworld Group (UK) received bankruptcy restructuring (a discussion point suggesting that it might have more to do with the movies themselves, than with the businesses). This means that by sheer size and scope, any blockbuster hit will cause AMC to benefit disproportionately, and thus, can serve as a catalyst in of itself.

2. AMC has invested in upgrades, such as IMAX, improved seating, expanded concession options, setting them radically apart from basic theaters, increasing any potential disproportionate benefit to showing a movie that's actually good.

3. There's been some reported debt refinancing and burden reduction. And, in the comments section of that aforementioned . . . YouTube analysis . . . a commenter put the debt burden into perspective: "macdonalds is 58 to 60 billion in debt AMC 4billion go figure".

4. November 5th (this coming Wednesday) is the next earnings report. For perspective, Q2 revenue increased to $1.4 billion from $1.03 billion a year prior. Annual revenue (TTM) is now at $4.92 billion - up 9.4% year over year. EPS is still negative, but losses have been shrinking in some recent quarters. That's the backdrop to this incoming earnings report.

I think that the combination between recently improved (albeit marginally) fundamentals, combined with the incoming earnings report and the technical bottom + wedge, does do well to explain this sudden optimism that otherwise seems to have come out of nowhere. Thoughts? Ideas? Comments?

"AMC is $3.40, while Wall Street analysts have set a price target of $17.93, indicating a 427.35% increase from the latest stock price. This target is based on a comprehensive analysis of AMC Entertainment’s financial performance, earnings growth, market trends, and industry outlook."

Serious questions for all the people buying/holding AMC stock… Why?

Don’t they have a 5 Billion dollar debt? I also read that the interest on some of those loans are averaging 9-12% annual interest.

I don’t even want to talk about their CEO. So I see so much copium in the AMC sub it’s wild, I don’t understand what they are thinking.

I know it was a meme stock a few years ago, but it’s down a ridiculous amount. I’m very new to value investing and looking at financials so I was hoping someone could share their thoughts with me. I used a valuation calculator and it thought it was ~85% undervalued ($3.28 rn, intrinsic value around $18). Im guessing for a long term investment this is not be the best choice, but do you think it might reach its value in the next 3-5 years? Thank you!

What are you expecting in GME, AMC ( or all kind of hyped up stocks) that are missing from stocks like google, NVDA or even some boring but undervalued such as UNH or UPS?

You think GME , AMC or OPEN gonna beat them in long run?

I saw few post last week some people “investing” in these companies on automatic such as weekly or monthly.

Edit 1:- all GME holder making theories in comments like their balance sheet will “this that”but still, you really think GME will beat Google in 5 or 10 years in returns?

Thinking about starting a position here, but wanted to get opinions from some fellow regards. Per the chart and latest trends, it appears AMC might be a good buy or it’s going to $0. I know this was once a coveted meme stock and its fall from glory has been exquisite, but it seems like there might be an opportunity for some huge upside potential. From what I can tell their market cap is around $875m which is near as low as it has ever been. However, the business seems to be doing decent and has a loyal customer and investor base. Now my only concern is that they will just torch this thing to $0 because they can. It has also been going down nonstop without any green days which seems extremely odd.

Anyone think it is almost time to start a position here for some upside? This thing has taken a beating and I do not see why it can’t recuperate some. I know the debt load is large, but feel the stock is undervalued.

Thank you for your time.

AMC’s Q2 2025 earnings came in stronger than expected and show signs of a real turnaround.

• Revenue climbed 36% year-over-year to $1.4B (AMC Entertainment Holdings)

• Adjusted EBITDA hit $189M, nearly 4× last year

• Free cash flow swung positive to $88.9M

• Attendance grew 26% to 62.8M guests

• Record per-guest spending of $22.26 (tickets + concessions)

• Premium formats like IMAX and Dolby filled theaters almost 3× faster than standard auditoriums

• Debt progress: added $244M cash and pushed out 2026 maturities

The big catalyst is that Wedbush just upgraded AMC to “Outperform” with a $4 price target, its first Buy rating on AMC since 2020 (Barron’s / MarketWatch).

AMC’s management also said they believe current cash and operations are enough to cover the next 12 months.

Discussion:
Is this finally AMC shifting from meme stock to legitimate turnaround play?

I just found out that if I am an AMC stock holder I get double points when using their app as an A List Member…and I thought it would be funny to get one share considering it’s only trading at around $5.

However now I’ve gone down a rabbit hole and I’m wondering if I should pick up a few shares just in case or if anyone should. Not a bunch just a few grand.

I think movie theaters serve a function and having an air conditioned space where you can go has always made sense to me. It’s a relatively safe family environment and it’s good for people with kids. families spend money on their kids like single people spend money on their dogs or cats.

But I think I’m bias and AMC is doomed but I want to believe it’s not. My question is more about how people here feel about AMC and the debate of will movie theaters always exist. Are there any futurists that have a prediction and what is that prediction. No wrong answers. Ultimately, if theatres will in fact exist then will AMC stock be worth anything.

CoinCodex Now Predicts AMC to Soar Whopping +500% by 2024 OCTOBER 11, 2023 / 2 COMMENTS CoinCodex is now predicting AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC) to soar by a whopping +500% by 2024.

Shares of the movie theatre company are currently up more than +37% in the past month.

“AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (AMC) showcased robust market performance in the last week – the AMC stock gained roughly +25%, extending its monthly gains above 37%.

The notably positive price activity came at a turbulent time for stocks and broader financial markets.

Many of the worst apes like to accuse us of being paid bashers or shills or whatever. Obviously stupid, but I figure this post with my updated view of the box office and AMC may show that those of us bearish on AMC are just trying to give a honest view of what we think will happen.

Earlier in this year it seemed to me the Domestic Box Office (DBO) would come in very weak. Q1' 2025 was anemic as it gets and accordingly AMC lost a significant amount that quarter. But since, the DBO has performed much better than I expected and as such my projection for the year, which was initially 9-9.5B is now around 10.5B, with Q2 perhaps seeing $3.1B in DBO.

Based on my own estimates this means that AMC rather than having a loss for Q2 and an overall loss for the year, will likely have income for Q2 and for the overall year. I can now see them having 100M+ in overall income for the year. If 2026 and so on, also perform better than I was previously assuming, it is very possible in my view that AMC can meet its current and ongoing cash-flow needs via operations (at least through 2026).

There is still the big overhanging issue as to what happens with the collateral lawsuit as that risks triggering bankruptcy. Further, I suspect AMC is underinvesting in CAPEX which may result in loss of market share, thereby undermining long-term opportunities to really be successful.

End of the day, nothing has really changed for me when I look at AMC. It is still overleveraged and that will drag down the business until they can ever resolve that, but should the box office go to 11B+ a year and sustain at those levels, it is possible that AMC with time can get over its issues.

That all said, I like to compare to CNK, which is more profitable and has less debt to deal with. Every time I do a comparison between the companies I come up with that even if things work out for AMC and its market cap will double or triple at some point (apes are still down like 90%+ in that case), CNK should also go up significantly and it comes without the risks of investing in AMC.

Basically, I am bullish on CNK and decently invested in LEAP Calls there. For AMC, I sold most of my puts starting middle of April when I realized the DBO was showing signs of strength that I did not expect. I still think AMC is overvalued but like I have noted in other comments already, I think things with AMC can drag on for quite a while and trying to make money being bearish on it is far less certain now than it was earlier this year. If you do know how the lawsuit will work out, maybe there is money to be made there, but I have since admitted to myself that my grasp of the legal process is not sufficient to bet money on that. Without someone with extensive legal experience in how these cases progress investing based on that is flying blind.

In 2024 I predict AMC will hit all time highs

I also predict that multiple people involved in the extreme manipulation of quote “meme stocks” will be charged and be facing jail time.

I predict some of the things that will be exposed will finally shut the mouths of the blatant liars and gas lighters that have been vocal about AMC.

I have an incredibly bright and positive outlook for 2024.

Been in this thing since 2021 and have just set to the side and letting it run its course so I’m out of the loop now. Where are we at? Is this thing going to go up in price, what are we waiting for or are we done for

Didn't it reach beyond $10 in last month or so? Why is it not showing on any chart?

They way I see it, is it's only a matter of time before movie theaters open back up again fully, and we're pumping out massive blockbusters every year again.

In 2016, AMC stock price was hovering around $30.00, now it's around 4.00 last I checked. Seems like a great time to buy, especially as their main competitor, Cineworld, shuddered their US locations.

Of course this could also be the tipping point where we stop going to movie theaters entirely and begin to shift new releases to at home streaming, which wouldn't bode too well for AMC I imagine.

Do you guys think it's a safe buy and hold?

EDIT: Well this post aged well haha. And to answer yall, NO, I didn’t buy AMC stock because I listened to everyone who told me not to like a fucking idiot. I should’ve, but I didn’t. Oh well. I can rest easy knowing that someone probably did after reading this post and has made a bit of money.