I just don’t think the potential can ever justify the current valuation. Let’s do some math. Currently space x holds around 90% of the US market and 60-70% of the global market, and their total revenue is $5 billion dollars (excluding starlink of course). Thats it. So even if you assume that the market for space launches let’s say triples AND that rocket labs can take a full third which is extremely optimistic as space x and blue origin have better technology, the potential yearly revenue shouldn’t be more than $5 billion. So even if they can eventually take a 10-20% net margin and earn $500 million, how can that justify the $40 billion in current valuation? How much stuff needs to be sent into space?

Hi everyone, I've been following Rocket Lab (RKLB) for over two years. The recent dramatic stock price fluctuations have made me re-evaluate the company's fundamentals. I've noticed that most discussions about RKLB on Reddit focus on emotional outbursts about "To the Moon" or the cult of personality surrounding Peter Beck, with few people actually sitting down to do the math. To verify whether the current valuation is reasonable, I spent two weeks building a very detailed DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) valuation model based on their latest earnings call, backlog conversion rates, and the potential launch cadence of the Neutron rocket. I want to share a few counterintuitive conclusions from the model, hoping to spark some rational discussion: 1. Space Systems is the real moat, not the launch business.

Everyone is focused on when Neutron will make its maiden flight, but my data shows that RKLB's Space Systems division (solar panels, reactor wheels, etc.) is actually growing faster than the potential ceiling of the launch business. The market seems to see RKLB merely as a "smaller SpaceX," ignoring its potential as a "prime of space infrastructure." My model shows that even if Neutron is delayed by 12 months, as long as the space system maintains its current growth rate, the downside potential for the stock price is locked in. 2. Burn Rate and Dilution Risk

This is the issue bulls least want to face. I simulated three scenarios:

Optimistic Scenario: Neutron successfully commercializes in 2025.

Neutral Scenario: Technical delays occur, requiring additional financing.

Pessimistic Scenario: A collapse similar to Astra's.

In my "neutral" model, RKLB may face a funding gap of approximately $300-500 million before 2026. This implies potential equity dilution. However, if they can secure a few specific government contracts (I've listed the contract codes and projected amounts in the model), this gap will disappear. 3. Institutional Investor Movements

I analyzed 13F filings from the past two quarters and found that while retail investors are panicking, some institutions focused on deep tech are actually quietly increasing their positions. This is often a bottoming signal, but it could also mean a multi-year consolidation phase. Conclusion and Discussion: Based on current price fluctuations, I believe market pricing is extremely inefficient. It's either severely undervalued (if Neutron delivers on time) or overvalued (if the bottomless pit of capital expenditures is ignored). Regarding my model data:

This Excel model is very large, containing detailed quarterly revenue forecasts, sensitivity analysis charts, and specific formulas for my assumptions regarding Neutron launch margins. Simply pasting it directly into a Reddit post would result in a messy and unreadable format. However, I strongly encourage knowledgeable individuals to challenge my assumptions (Bear Case).

If you are interested in specific backlog conversion rate data;

or want to see my projected 2026 EBITDA forecast;

or want to run my Excel model against your own assumptions;

please feel free to point this out in the comments, and we can discuss these specific figures in more depth. I'm curious about everyone's views on the actual impact of Neutron's delays on cash flow. Am I being too pessimistic?

Thanks to a fellow Redditor who introduced ASTS and RKLB earlier this year, I’ve made some significant gains. Now I’m curious what’s your next highest conviction, must have stock to hold over the next five years?

From today’s valuation, which company do you genuinely believe has a realistic chance of delivering a 10× return within the next five years?

Hey everyone,

I’ve been on a quest to figure out how people always seem to spot these super-growth companies early, like Rocket Lab (RKLB) and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS).

I’m curious: • Do you rely on screeners, news, industry research, or just sticking to certain sectors? • Any specific websites, tools, or metrics you swear by? • How do you tell the difference between a real business that’s actually making a difference and just a bunch of hype?

I’d love to hear your thoughts and learn from your experiences. Thanks a bunch!