An analysis by someone I know, what do you think about it:

Mid- to late April will be the next earnings report and I expect that it will not be good. With rare exceptions, stocks go way down on poor earnings reports. I think that I will just hold or possibly sell before the earnings report. If I sold now then I would probably not invest in Tesla again I don't think anything will improve Tesla sales in Germany or Europe. Here, Americans have short memories and will continue buying Teslas but maybe fewer than before. There will need to be price reductions which will hurt profitability and thus the stock price will go down. Long term, meaning the next 2-3 years, Tesla must execute nearly perfectly the new robo-taxi service and then the android. Both are extremely risky and will have competition from other companies. The auto business alone is not enough to justify even the current (lower) stock price. However, their energy business is continuing to grow in the US although it's not as "sexy" as the other parts.

Currently TSLA is trading close to $265/share, or about an $880B market cap.

It's a reasonable argument that if an asset can beat the S&P 500 CAGR, then it's a good investment. Given that the S&P typically provides a 5% CAGR, let's see what would be needed for Tesla to achieve a 10% CAGR by, let's say.. end of 2030.

$880B * 1.10^7 = $1.71T market cap, or about $512/share

So how does Tesla make it to a $1.7T market cap in 2030? I'm going to assume a 30 P/E, which everyone will bitch and complain about beause they hate Tesla, but I think there's reasonable arguments for and against 30. The "for" argument being that I believe they'll still be growing EV sales and energy storage products. If a 30 P/E, then Tesla needs:

$1710B / 30 = $57B in gaap earnings

So how much gaap earnings does Tesla make per EV sold? I'll link to a graph of the "TTM avg gaap earnings per EV sold" in the comments

Tesla's current earnings profitability is about $5,600 per EV sold, and it continues to go up over the long term, even if rates have caused a recent drop (earnings per EV maxed out at $10.3k in q1 2022). Let's just assume a long term profitability of $5,700 per EV (super conservative imo). Tesla will need to sell about

$57B earnings / $5,700 earnings per EV = 10M EVs annually

Conclusion: If Tesla sells 10M EVs in 2030, then it is not overvalued today, in fact.. it beats the S&P. This isn't even including profits from the energy storage sector of the business, or the wildcards of robotaxis and bots.

Hey guys, there is a lot of discussion about teslas price going up and down. But in the end its all just noise. Arguably the greatest investor of our time warren buffet used a buy and hold good companies strategy. Even if you hate elon musk the reality is tesla is a good company. The question is do you believe in their vision.

I personally think tesla is investing for a future economy where they are primary disruptors. And I wouldn't be surprised if they are the most valuable company in the world by 2030.

This is because as many of you may not fully appreciate, tesla has a moat. They own the full ecosystem of technology. They have the charging infrastructure, the manufacturing capacity to build robotaxis/humanoid robots, energy storage, software development, the data, and even lithium production. The fact that tesla owns the full stack of technology gives them a competitive advantage. The robotaxi and humanoid robot industries are going to be the key pillars of the 21st century industrial revolution ushering in a productivity and profit boom.

tl;dr, notable points and changes since last update lower down

Hey all, here's my Tesla (TSLA) Valuation Model, up until 2030:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cUzJrRJ_QtT4_zpXXkRRpuSnAR3M9t9DDkG5FX5nv1g/edit?usp=sharing

This model provides projections including and excluding AMaaS (Autonomous Mobility as a Service) revenue, allowing for comparison of potential outcomes dependant on whether full Autonomy is achieved and marketable as a Robotaxi program in the next decade.

I believe that this model is relatively conservative in both financial calculations and production growth predictions. This is in comparison to predictions and statements by Tesla, their representatives and many buy-side analysts, namely ARK Invest, Baron Funds, Jeffries Financial Group, Loup Ventures and Piper Sandler.

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tl;dr:

2030 predictions excluding AMaaS: $3709 share price from $694B revenue, $206B profit, $3.7T market cap

2030 predictions including AMaaS: $12940 share price from $1.34T revenue, $468B profit, $12.9T market cap

major notes:

• based on average 100kW/vehicle; predictions infer <2TWh battery capacity utilised 2030 (including <0.5TWh allocated to energy products), this is considerably less than Tesla's stated goal of 3TWh 2030

• in 2018, Toyota sold ~10m vehicles at ~25k ASP; my 2030 projection of 14m at $36k seems realistic when taking into account inflation and Tesla's diverse mix of higher ASP vehicles (S/X, Roadster, Semi, etc.). The ASP for all new vehicles in the US in mid-2021 was est. $40k

• predicted long-term auto production growth is 25-35% yoy, Musk has often stated that he expects YOY Auto growth of 50-100% for several years, with a long-term goal of 20mil vehicles/year

• Solar/Storage prices and margins infer that Tesla will lower prices consistently while maintaining conservatively low margins of 5-15%

• AMaaS release many years behind Musk's original timeline. % AMaaS vehicles on network and hrs/week could be 2-3x realistically once safety and owner profitability has been proven

• comparing EV/EBIT and P/S ratios to similar growth companies and the total market in general (as of Nov21) portrays the predicted 2030 valuations as relatively conservative for a fast-growing blue chip company

• vehicle and energy production costs (and thus gross margins) have been modelled in line with Wright's Law; prices have been modelled to steadily decline with costs - alternatively, Tesla could maintain prices and allow their margins to increase much faster

^these points and many others are further explained within the Notes section of the spreadsheet

Changes to model since last update in May: adjusted Auto ASPs, margins and vehicle mix for 2021-onwards; fixed up Energy tab and separated Storage and Solar; increased Software prices and take-rates due to recent improvements in capability of FSD Beta; adjusted Software 2 tab due to subscription FSD released in Q2 '21; adjusted R&D and SG&A estimates to better reflect efficiency improvements, these are slightly offset by increased depreciation cost estimates; increased valuation multiples as I believe they were excessively conservative before; decreased dilution estimates heavily due to improved efficiencies and thus less need for capital raises; added detail and new points of interest to the Notes section.

~ ~

In closing, I've a current buy-price target of USD$1300, with the expectation for that to increase roughly 2.8x to $3700 by 2030 excluding revenue from AMaaS (Autonomous Mobility as a Service). I do expect a much larger return than this in the long-term, however this would be the lowest return I'd be comfortable with. Based on TSLA's November 11th closing price of $1063, this would be a return of ~3.5x. Including AMaaS and Software projections, my model results in a 2030 price of ~$13000. This would be a return of 12x today's TSLA price. Adjusting my price target with a 10% chance of AMaaS being achieved by 2025, my buy-price target would be $1730.

Keep in mind that the entirety of my model is relatively conservative when compared to other investors and analysts that have formal investment analysis training and actually get paid to do this. For comparison, Piper Sandler have a one-year price target of $1300, Jeffries Financial Group have a one-year target of $1400, and Ark Invest have a 2025 price target of $3000, versus my $2000.

I of course must also say that I have no idea what I'm talking about and that you should take everything in these spreadsheets with a mouthful of salt water, making no investment decisions based on me nor my numbers.

funding secured

It’s all contingent on them mastering FSD, but if they do, they win the Big Prize.

Loup thinks they can generate revenue of $1 Trillion/yr just on FSD subscriptions by 2031.

ARK predicts robotaxi industry revenues of $6-7 Trillion/yr, with winners making $1T in profit by 2030.

Thus I’ll predict Tesla revenues of $3T in ten years. They are expected to earn about $50B this year, sixty times less. Ten years out, it seems pointless to predict margins and whatever else, so I’ll just multiply today’s price by 60.

Price in 2031: $43,200

Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment remains bullish on Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) and sees the electric vehicle maker racing to $2,600 per share in five years, the tech investor said in a Bloomberg interview on Tuesday.

Wood told Bloomberg that she expects Tesla’s robo taxis to be the company’s biggest value driver in the next five years, and that the share price was not even factoring in Tesla’s plans for humanoid robots.

Wood’s forecast predicts Tesla’s valuation at nearly 10 times from current levels, as the EV maker grapples with a severe drop in valuation over the past four months. The $2,600 forecast has been touted by Ark in the past. 

Tesla is the biggest component of Wood’s flagship ARK Innovation (NYSE:ARKK) exchange-traded fund, which holds about $646 million worth of shares in the EV maker. Tesla is also by far Ark’s biggest holding across its other ETFs, according to data from Cathie’s Ark. 

Tesla is trading down nearly 27% so far in 2025, having lost as much as 50% of its value since November.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/tesla-to-hit-2600-in-the-next-5-years-cathie-wood-tells-bloomberg-3945947

WTF is Cathie smoking?

I'm doing an updated DCF analysis following TSLA's recent price drop and I want clarity on some assumptions.

Currently the maximum production for TSLA's factories are:

This adds up to 2.35m. However, TSLA sold ~1.8m vehicles in 2023, of which ~500k were the Model 3 and ~1.2m were the Model Y.

Currently TSLA has excess production capacity but since Model 3/Y sales have stagnated, this is being underutilised.

TSLA currently trades at a forward P/E multiple of 40. I believe this is pricing in the next growth phase when the next-generation vehicle is released. The current rumours are that it'll begin mass production in July 2025, and I've assumed it'll take 18m to ramp up to a ~500,000 production rate (December 2026) with annual production of 1.3m by Dec 2027.

So by December 2027, I am assuming the following sales:

This totals ~3.3m and by this time, Gigafactory Mexico will be up and running so along with expansions of of other sites, TSLA should have enough capacity.

I know I'm only looking 4 years ahead, but how is TSLA expecting to ramp up to 20m in the following 3 years? Elon Musk has commented the need for 10-12 Gigafactories by 2030 but that doesn't seem sensible with these assumed sales figures. I've only included TSLA's announced vehicles but they cover a large variety of market segments so I don't personally think the next major growth driver will be a new vehicle; it'll have to be something like energy storage or FSD.

So I want to discuss my assumed vehicle sales numbers. Am I not being optimistic enough? What are the predicted sales numbers for the next generation vehicle? Baring in mind that the US is typically not a large market for hatchbacks and the top-selling hatchback of 2023 was the Toyota Corrolla, which sold ~1m. Personally, I think the biggest wildcard is the Tesla Semi, since sales of heavy truck vehicles are predicted to reach 4.76m by 2030, which not only makes 75,000 seem very low, the margins are also likely to be greater. But even if you assume ~2m Semi sales, that's still ~5m annual sales, well off 20m.

Why would another 4-6 Gigafactory's be needed and what would they produce?

Im an investor in TSLA for 6 years, and i finally made my stock prediction based on math and my own predictions/assumptions.

Please review it and give kind feedback.

N

I'm 22 and those are the first moneys I have ever owned and I decided to invest them. I have other 4k that I could invest but am unsure because TSLA stock are high right now. Should I buy other stocks? Is there a maximum they can reach?

Sorry for the stupid questions but am new in "this world"

Happy holidays fellow investors!

Let's talk what is a conservative price per share by 2030.

First off, Tesla currently has a market cap of 800B. Let's assume that CCIV/LUCID is half of Tesla's market cap by 2030. Let's also assume that Tesla add only 200B to their market cap in the next 9 years to have a total market cap of 1 Trillion. Yes I know, that is super conservative that Tesla will be 1T by 2030, but let's just keep it conservative. So Lucid will be about 500B by 2030.

Now, let's assume that Lucid gets a 15B evaluation when the CCIV merger goes through. We have 200M shares of CCIV worth 2B after warrants are exercised, so we take 2B/15B and we get 13.3% ownership of the total company.

Now, a market cap of 500B x 13.3% = 650M.

650M / 200M shares equals a share price of $325 per share.

If you buy 2,000 shares of CCIV at 23.50 per share today you will invest 47K. In 9 years I think those shares will be worth at least 650K.

But let's cater to the bears and say that Lucid achieves only 1/4 of the market share of Tesla. Fine, we have a price point of $162 in 2030. Your 2,000 shares are worth 324K.

And again, to cater to the bears let's assume that LUCID gets only 1/8th of Tesla's market share. Fine, we have a price point of $81 per share by 2030. Your 2,000 shares are worth 162K.

But let's assume for just a moment, that Lucid will get to a 35K model eventually, while still maintaining a premium model in the 150K range. Think of their base model as the iphone SE equivalent to the iphone MAX. You can still have a premium feel and look, while catering to more people.

So, let's consider their factory in AZ that has a final capacity of 400,000 vehicles. They will build a factory in Saudi Arabia and one in China. Do you really think they are only going to have 1/8th the market share of Tesla in 9 years? Lucid will continue to innovate, there's no reason to think this won't be worth at least 1/2 of the market share of Tesla by 2030.

Let's assume that Tesla made 26B revenue in 2020. 800B market cap / 26B equals a factor of about 30X.

So let's assume in 2030 that Lucid is selling 400,000 cars from their Arizona factory. And let's assume that the average price per vehicle is a 60K.( That's a mix of some high end vehicles and low end vehicles). That's 24B annually. Now remember Tesla has a 30X factor, so to appease the bears I will only give a 21x factor. 21x times 24B equals a market cap of 500B or $325 per share!

But remember my friends, that's the capacity of just one factory. Let's assume that the Chinese and Saudi factories have capacity of 200K each. Let's further assume all factories are up and running by 2030 at full capacity. Let's further assume that the average price point drops to 40K. So 40K x 800,000 vehicles equals 32B revenue! Even if you only want to give them a 16x sales valuation you still get a market cap of 500B.

I have given what I think is very reasonable estimates. $325 by 2030 is actually an extremely conservative estimate! We are probably looking at $400-$500 per share by 2030.

So, my recommendation is make sure you have at least 2,000 shares so that by 2030 you can be a Lucid millionaire or "Lucidnaire".

Bulls and bears, wake up!

If you want to comment on my post please be respectful and we can have a conversation. Fair enough?