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Reddit
reddit.com › r/bestof › u/mariachiarchery explains why china won't invade taiwan.
r/bestof on Reddit: u/MariachiArchery explains why China won't invade Taiwan.
3 weeks ago - A war with China will devastate Taiwan but China is unlikely to win it. Amphibious invasions are extremely bloody even under the best circumstances. More likely it will result in a stalemate that devastates both countries. I actually think China will try to invade Taiwan.
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Polymarket
polymarket.com › event › will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Betting Odds & Predictions | Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Discussions

China ‘expects to be able to fight and defeat Taiwan’ by end of 2027, Pentagon finds | Beijing sharpening military options to seize Taiwan by ‘brute force’, says report
I’m so sick of 2027 being thrown around like it’s a fact. More on reddit.com
🌐 r/LessCredibleDefence
114
75
1 month ago
Does China have the inclination and/or ability to invade Taiwan?
Short answer: Yes. Long answer: China is still upscaling it's naval capabilities as it does have enough power for an invasion but faces two major challenges. First, how big will the group of outside support for Taiwan be? Possible considerable contributions could come from not just the US which is of course the main antagonist from Beijings perspective, but also from Japan, South Korea, Australia and maybe Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines or even Vietnam. Given their dependency on Taiwanese microchip manufacturing, a limited force from the EU and the UK is to be expected as well. It's one thing to invade a (heavily armed) island, it's a complete other thing to sustain a full siege around it for an indefinite amount of time until they surrender. More on reddit.com
🌐 r/Military
94
16
April 16, 2025
What is going to prevent China from invading Taiwan?
Remember, this is a civilized space for discussion. We discourage downvoting based on your disagreement and instead encourage upvoting well-written arguments, especially ones that you disagree with. To promote high-quality discussions, we suggest the Socratic Method , which is briefly as follows: Ask Questions to Clarify: When responding, start with questions that clarify the original poster's position. Example: "Can you explain what you mean by 'economic justice'?" Define Key Terms: Use questions to define key terms and concepts. Example: "How do you define 'freedom' in this context?" Probe Assumptions: Challenge underlying assumptions with thoughtful questions. Example: "What assumptions are you making about human nature?" Seek Evidence: Ask for evidence and examples to support claims. Example: "Can you provide an example of when this policy has worked?" Explore Implications: Use questions to explore the consequences of an argument. Example: "What might be the long-term effects of this policy?" Engage in Dialogue: Focus on mutual understanding rather than winning an argument. I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns. More on reddit.com
🌐 r/PoliticalDebate
114
15
2 weeks ago
u/MariachiArchery explains why China won't invade Taiwan.
I thought the 2020s put the concept of "won't or can't happen" to bed. More on reddit.com
🌐 r/bestof
311
677
3 weeks ago
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Council on Foreign Relations
cfr.org › blog › trumps-strikes-venezuela-will-not-embolden-china-invade-taiwan
Trump’s Strikes on Venezuela Will Not Embolden China to Invade Taiwan | Council on Foreign Relations
2 weeks ago - Instead, China has not attacked Taiwan because it lacks confidence that it can succeed at an acceptable cost. If China develops a military that it believes can overrun Taiwan and defeat a U.S.-led coalition, then cross-Strait dynamics will ...
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German Marshall Fund
gmfus.org › news › if-china-attacks-taiwan
If China Attacks Taiwan | German Marshall Fund of the United States
2 weeks ago - Research on the possibility and ... in the Taiwan Strait has expanded rapidly in recent years. Studies have focused on a broad range of questions related to deterrence, potential conflict dynamics, and possible conflict outcomes. Tabletop exercises have been used to identify gaps in the capabilities of the United States, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and ...
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TIME
time.com › world › conflict › what trump’s venezuela gambit means for china and taiwan
What Trump’s Venezuela Gambit Means for China and Taiwan | TIME
2 weeks ago - Anxiety is especially high that China could now act in similar fashion against regional leaders whom it deems problematic—not least in Taiwan, the self-ruling island that Beijing claims as a renegade province and has repeatedly threatened to invade.
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Axios
axios.com › 2025 › 12 › 30 › taiwan-2027-china-invade-trump-response
Taiwan 2027: China's target date for potential takeover fast approaches
3 weeks ago - Two years later, then-CIA Director Bill Burns said intelligence showed Chinese President Xi Jinping had "instructed the People's Liberation Army to be ready by 2027 to conduct a successful invasion."
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ABC News
abc.net.au › news › 2025-12-30 › chinas-military-drills-around-taiwan-a-message-to-united-states › 106186794
China hasn't said it wants war in 2026. But it's showing the world it's ready for one - ABC News
3 weeks ago - When launching 10 hours of live-firing ... from Beijing was blindingly clear: Its military, the People's Liberation Army (PLA), is more ready than it's ever been to launch an attack on Taiwan....
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Stimson Center
stimson.org › security & strategy › defense policy & posture › rethinking the threat: why china is unlikely to invade taiwan
Rethinking the Threat: Why China is Unlikely to Invade Taiwan • Stimson Center
November 18, 2025 - While Taiwan’s natural landscape would make conquering the island difficult, the Taiwanese people would likely also strongly resist an invader. The decisionmakers in Beijing doubtlessly consider Taiwan’s capabilities as they make strategic decisions. However, if China’s leaders decide to launch an invasion, they must consider not only the geographic challenges, but also the readiness and will of Taiwanese population.
Find elsewhere
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Domino Theory
dominotheory.com › no-the-u-s-didnt-just-give-china-grounds-to-invade-taiwan
No, the U.S. Didn’t Just Give China Grounds to Invade Taiwan - Domino Theory
2 weeks ago - China considers Taiwan to be a part of its territory already and thus frames any potential military engagement here as a purely domestic affair, not subject to international challenge. Beijing reacted fiercely to comparisons between Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its own potential attempted annexation of Taiwan. It will likely move to quash any comparisons between Venezuela and Taiwan as well.
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The Guardian
theguardian.com › world › 2025 › dec › 30 › trump-not-worried-china-military-live-fire-drills-taiwan
Trump ‘not worried’ as China’s live-fire Taiwan wargame enters second day | China | The Guardian
3 weeks ago - US president says Chinese leader did not notify him of drills that have involved live missile launches into Taiwan strait ... Donald Trump has said he is not worried by China’s live-fire military drills surrounding Taiwan and that he has a great relationship with the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, who “hasn’t told me anything about it”.
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Defense Priorities
defensepriorities.org › home › "target taiwan" › target taiwan: military risk from chinese conquest
Target Taiwan: Military risk from Chinese conquest - Defense Priorities
1 month ago - This analysis concludes that a Chinese-controlled Taiwan would not significantly endanger U.S. national security. The U.S. position in the Asia-Pacific is and will remain strong, irrespective of any cross-strait conflict.
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YouTube
youtube.com › watch
Could China actually invade Taiwan? - What in the World podcast, BBC World Service - YouTube
Taiwan is an island about 180 kilometres off the coast of China - nearly 24 million people live there. Taiwan is self governed but China says it’s part of it...
Published   December 16, 2025
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Institute for the Study of War
understandingwar.org › home › china & taiwan update, november 25, 2025
China & Taiwan Update, November 25, 2025 | ISW
November 26, 2025 - The PLA has an estimated capacity to simultaneously move around 20,000 troops across the Taiwan Strait, which is well below the number that the PLA would require to invade Taiwan.[4] The PLA would likely need between 300,000 to over a million troops as well as their equipment in multiple waves of landings to seize control of Taiwan.
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Indo-Pacific Defense FORUM
ipdefenseforum.com › home › key issues › conflicts - tensions
What cost is China willing to bear to invade Taiwan? – Indo-Pacific Defense FORUM
October 28, 2025 - Most analysts contend that the PLA will not be ready to undertake such an operation soon, despite Xi’s aspirations to attain the capability by 2027. Taiwan’s terrain poses tremendous challenges for invaders, with rugged mountains, dense ...
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INSS
inss.org.il › home › publications › inss insight › the dragon and the clock—2027 as the turning point year between china and taiwan
The Dragon and the Clock—2027 as the Turning Point Year Between China and Taiwan | INSS
2 weeks ago - Many regard 2027 as the year in which the Chinese military could attack Taiwan—especially after former CIA Director William Burns said in 2023 that “as a matter of intelligence, we know that he [Xi Jinping] has instructed the People’s ...
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BBC
bbc.com › news › articles › cp94v42gmg9o
Taiwan is preparing for a Chinese attack but its people don't think war is coming soon
August 25, 2025 - Like Ben, most people in Taiwan – 65% according to a survey released in May by the military-affiliated Institute for National Defense and Strategic Research (INDSR) - believe it is unlikely that China will attack in the next five years.
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Reddit
reddit.com › r/military › does china have the inclination and/or ability to invade taiwan?
r/Military on Reddit: Does China have the inclination and/or ability to invade Taiwan?
April 16, 2025 -

The most important company that perhaps most people have never heard about is the Taiwan Semi-Conductor Company (TSMC). They have a monopoly on advanced semi-conductors. If you're reading this, you're using one of their products.

The big question mark around their stock (TSM) is "will Taiwan be invaded by China?" I wanted to get this sub's opinion. Does China have the inclination and/or the ability to invade Taiwan?

Thank you!

p.s. If this isnt the most appropriate sub for this question, I would appreciate being directed in the right direction.