tl;dr, notable points and changes since last update lower down

Hey all, here's my Tesla (TSLA) Valuation Model, up until 2030:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cUzJrRJ_QtT4_zpXXkRRpuSnAR3M9t9DDkG5FX5nv1g/edit?usp=sharing

This model provides projections including and excluding AMaaS (Autonomous Mobility as a Service) revenue, allowing for comparison of potential outcomes dependant on whether full Autonomy is achieved and marketable as a Robotaxi program in the next decade.

I believe that this model is relatively conservative in both financial calculations and production growth predictions. This is in comparison to predictions and statements by Tesla, their representatives and many buy-side analysts, namely ARK Invest, Baron Funds, Jeffries Financial Group, Loup Ventures and Piper Sandler.

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tl;dr:

2030 predictions excluding AMaaS: $3709 share price from $694B revenue, $206B profit, $3.7T market cap

2030 predictions including AMaaS: $12940 share price from $1.34T revenue, $468B profit, $12.9T market cap

major notes:

• based on average 100kW/vehicle; predictions infer <2TWh battery capacity utilised 2030 (including <0.5TWh allocated to energy products), this is considerably less than Tesla's stated goal of 3TWh 2030

• in 2018, Toyota sold ~10m vehicles at ~25k ASP; my 2030 projection of 14m at $36k seems realistic when taking into account inflation and Tesla's diverse mix of higher ASP vehicles (S/X, Roadster, Semi, etc.). The ASP for all new vehicles in the US in mid-2021 was est. $40k

• predicted long-term auto production growth is 25-35% yoy, Musk has often stated that he expects YOY Auto growth of 50-100% for several years, with a long-term goal of 20mil vehicles/year

• Solar/Storage prices and margins infer that Tesla will lower prices consistently while maintaining conservatively low margins of 5-15%

• AMaaS release many years behind Musk's original timeline. % AMaaS vehicles on network and hrs/week could be 2-3x realistically once safety and owner profitability has been proven

• comparing EV/EBIT and P/S ratios to similar growth companies and the total market in general (as of Nov21) portrays the predicted 2030 valuations as relatively conservative for a fast-growing blue chip company

• vehicle and energy production costs (and thus gross margins) have been modelled in line with Wright's Law; prices have been modelled to steadily decline with costs - alternatively, Tesla could maintain prices and allow their margins to increase much faster

^these points and many others are further explained within the Notes section of the spreadsheet

Changes to model since last update in May: adjusted Auto ASPs, margins and vehicle mix for 2021-onwards; fixed up Energy tab and separated Storage and Solar; increased Software prices and take-rates due to recent improvements in capability of FSD Beta; adjusted Software 2 tab due to subscription FSD released in Q2 '21; adjusted R&D and SG&A estimates to better reflect efficiency improvements, these are slightly offset by increased depreciation cost estimates; increased valuation multiples as I believe they were excessively conservative before; decreased dilution estimates heavily due to improved efficiencies and thus less need for capital raises; added detail and new points of interest to the Notes section.

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In closing, I've a current buy-price target of USD$1300, with the expectation for that to increase roughly 2.8x to $3700 by 2030 excluding revenue from AMaaS (Autonomous Mobility as a Service). I do expect a much larger return than this in the long-term, however this would be the lowest return I'd be comfortable with. Based on TSLA's November 11th closing price of $1063, this would be a return of ~3.5x. Including AMaaS and Software projections, my model results in a 2030 price of ~$13000. This would be a return of 12x today's TSLA price. Adjusting my price target with a 10% chance of AMaaS being achieved by 2025, my buy-price target would be $1730.

Keep in mind that the entirety of my model is relatively conservative when compared to other investors and analysts that have formal investment analysis training and actually get paid to do this. For comparison, Piper Sandler have a one-year price target of $1300, Jeffries Financial Group have a one-year target of $1400, and Ark Invest have a 2025 price target of $3000, versus my $2000.

I of course must also say that I have no idea what I'm talking about and that you should take everything in these spreadsheets with a mouthful of salt water, making no investment decisions based on me nor my numbers.

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