2 weeks ago - Outside of the first quarter, when the economy shrank for the first time in three years as companies rushed to import goods ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariff rollout, the U.S. economy has continued to expand at a healthy rate. That’s despite much higher borrowing rates the Fed imposed in 2022 and 2023 in its drive to curb the inflation that surged as the United States bounced back with unexpected strength from the brief but devastating COVID-19 recession of 2020.

July 28, 2022 - Concerns that the U.S. economy could be heading into a recession intensified after official figures released July 28 showed that the U.S. economy shrank for the second straight quarter, just days after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast ...

September 26, 2024 - Remember two years ago, when GDP was reported as having shrunk for two consecutive quarters, and there was an entire exhausting discourse about whether it qualified as a recession? Turns out it was a statistical illusion. Why it matters: It is a reminder, as we get caught up in debates over how to interpret economic data, of how much we don't really know in real time about the inner workings of the economy. Driving the news: The Commerce Department published on Thursday morning revised GDP data for the past several years based on more complete information.

The sharp contrast between the index’s average recession path and the six-month path in 2022 suggests that a recession is unlikely to have started in first quarter 2022, despite two consecutive quarters of declining GDP in the first half of 2022.

The good news: If it does come to pass, a recession today is likely to be shallower and less damaging to corporate earnings than recent downturns. Here’s why. ... Aside from the pandemic-induced 2020 recession, other recent recessions have been credit-driven, including the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 and the dot-com bust of 2000-2001. In those cases, debt-related excesses built up in housing and internet infrastructure, and it took nearly a decade for the economy to absorb them.

1 week ago - Remember back in October 2022, a Bloomberg headline said there was a 100% chance of recession over the next 12 months? That very certain prediction turned out to be very wrong, but the idea that the economy is perpetually ...

October 17, 2024 - Even without considering population growth and per capita GDP, the adjusted real GDP values imply that the nation entered a recession in the first quarter of 2022 and remained in that contraction through the second quarter of 2024.

An insufficient shift in policies, ... for the policy rate published at the June FOMC meeting, we expect the U.S. economy will slow in 2022-23 but narrowly ......

August 2, 2022 - After July’s red-hot inflation ... rate, reaching 3.6% by next March, up from next to zero when 2022 began. The anticipated effect: The economy slows—but, as the Fed hopes and prays, not so much that we tumble into recession....

July 20, 2022 - US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the Federal Reserve Building in Washington, DC, June 15, 2022. ... As inflation continues to increase, so does the probability of a recession, according to several recent economic forecasts.

July 26, 2022 - Housing starts are expected to decline from 1.6 million in 2022 to 1.4 million in 2023, then hover at this level through 2025. More than 11 million job openings will provide a shock absorber for the impact of the recession on the labor market.

September 18, 2025 - The U.S. has not been in an economic recession since 2022.

3 weeks ago - The legendary yield curve (which tracks US Treasury Bond yields and has correctly predicted every downturn since the 1970s) inverted in 2022, and the Sahm rule (a formula based on the unemployment rate) was triggered in 2024.

According to the BEA's advance estimate, Gross Domestic Product fell at an annualized rate of 0.9% for the second quarter—which has since been revised downward to a decline of only 0.6% following a 1.6% decline in GDP reported for the first ...

August 16, 2023 - "A number of forces have coincided ... economist at Bank of America, said in a July 2022 analysis. "We now forecast a mild recession in the U.S. economy this year ... In addition to fading of prior fiscal support ......

May 3, 2022 - Economists expect second-quarter GDP — the period running from April to June — to increase 2.9%, according to FactSet. For 2022, economists expect growth to increase by 3.3%. Most economists say the odds of a recession are low this year ...

2 weeks ago - The slowdown has been driven by higher mortgage rates earlier in the year, prices that ran well ahead of what many buyers could realistically pay, and a surge in housing supply in former boomtowns such as Florida and Texas. The explosive gains of 2022 — when some Florida and Southeast metros surged by roughly 30 percent — are firmly in the rearview mirror.

November 18, 2025 - With the federal government open after its longest shutdown on record, we will soon get a clear indication of how payrolls fared in September and October. The most recent data, through August, already showed a marked slowdown in job growth, and much of the alternative data released during the shutdown suggests that this weakness has likely continued.

Real retail sales are currently ... April 2022 (data through September 2025) Real personal income is currently 0.08% off its all-time high from April 2025 (data through August 2025) It's difficult to discuss the behavior of the big four leading up to the "COVID" recession - it likely ...

Conclusion The post-Covid economic backlash, in conjunction with faltering external economies and global conflict will directly impact US domestic interests, foreshadowing an emerging recession in the next 18 months with implications for consumers and investors both in the US and abroad. Moxie Thompson is a Master of Arts in International Relations candidate at JHU-SAIS. Her academic interests lie at the intersection of security, economics, and technology, particularly in relation to transnational organized crime.