I know that 95% of the observations under a normal distribution fall approximately under 2 standard deviations from the mean.

1.96, but yes.

Does this change when the distribution has fat tails?

Yes. It also changes with thin tails.

However, there are a lot of distributions with very roughly 95% within two standard deviations. Indeed, if we look at continuous symmetric unimodal distributions whose variance exists, there must be between 88% and 100% within two standard deviations.

On the other hand, in the general case, the limit is given by the Chebyshev inequality - i.e. it may be as low as 3/4.

What is the name of the theorem that guarantees this?

You don't actually need a theorem; a counterexample to the assertion that it's the case for all distributions would suffice to say that it changes (but since the Chebyshev bound is achievable, it's a good one to look at if you want to mention something). All you really need to do is just compute it for a few different distributions. e.g. look at a uniform and a , and some asymmetric and discrete cases.

One interesting case to consider is a distribution that has probability of at and at 0. Now move up and down between 0 and 1 and see the fraction inside two standard deviations can be changed quite a lot.

In that example, the variance is . If then the proportion inside 2 s.d.s is (so that proportion can be any value in ). Then for the proportion jumps to exactly 1, which means we can demonstrably achieve any value in , and 0.75 is the Chebyshev bound, so we can't go below 0.75. (It's a very handy distribution to play with.)

Answer from Glen_b on Stack Exchange
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Calculator Academy
calculator.academy › home › 2 standard deviation rule calculator
2 Standard Deviation Rule Calculator - Calculator Academy
1 month ago - The 2 Standard Deviation Rule, also known as the Empirical Rule, is a statistical rule which states that for a normal distribution, almost all data will fall within three standard deviations of the mean.
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1 of 1
9

I know that 95% of the observations under a normal distribution fall approximately under 2 standard deviations from the mean.

1.96, but yes.

Does this change when the distribution has fat tails?

Yes. It also changes with thin tails.

However, there are a lot of distributions with very roughly 95% within two standard deviations. Indeed, if we look at continuous symmetric unimodal distributions whose variance exists, there must be between 88% and 100% within two standard deviations.

On the other hand, in the general case, the limit is given by the Chebyshev inequality - i.e. it may be as low as 3/4.

What is the name of the theorem that guarantees this?

You don't actually need a theorem; a counterexample to the assertion that it's the case for all distributions would suffice to say that it changes (but since the Chebyshev bound is achievable, it's a good one to look at if you want to mention something). All you really need to do is just compute it for a few different distributions. e.g. look at a uniform and a , and some asymmetric and discrete cases.

One interesting case to consider is a distribution that has probability of at and at 0. Now move up and down between 0 and 1 and see the fraction inside two standard deviations can be changed quite a lot.

In that example, the variance is . If then the proportion inside 2 s.d.s is (so that proportion can be any value in ). Then for the proportion jumps to exactly 1, which means we can demonstrably achieve any value in , and 0.75 is the Chebyshev bound, so we can't go below 0.75. (It's a very handy distribution to play with.)

Discussions

ELI5: what do you mean by two standard deviation?
According to one survey, American adult males have an average height of 70 inches and a standard deviation of 2.66 inches. That means anyone of height 75.33 inches or above is two standard deviations above the mean (70 + 2.66 + 2.66). In a perfect bell curve, 2.3% of all samples are two std. devs. above the mean, 2.3% of all samples are two std. devs. below the mean, and 95.4% of all samples are within two std. devs. of the mean. More on reddit.com
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April 25, 2023
Is it meaningful to calculate standard deviation of two numbers? - Cross Validated
As you can see, at either confidence level, there's a big "savings" in the multiplicative factor if you have 3 data points instead of 2. And you don't get dinged as badly by the use of n-1 vs. n in the denominator of sample standard deviation. More on stats.stackexchange.com
🌐 stats.stackexchange.com
August 16, 2016
r - How to do [(mean) +- (2*standard deviation)] - Stack Overflow
I'm new to R and I'm trying to understand how to do the mean +- 2 times standard deviation. I've tried calculating the mean and the standard deviation singularly and then do the aritmetic calculati... More on stackoverflow.com
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When is a standard deviation considered as high?
What I would be more concerned ... a standard deviation. ... If your model has normal distribution, there is no relationship between mean an SD. Greater SD means you will need a lager sample size to find significance. However, if your model assumes normal distribution, you can consider the 68 - 95 - 99.7% rule, which means that 68% of the sample should be within one SD of the mean, 95% within 2 SD and 99,7% ... More on researchgate.net
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July 27, 2017

I know that 95% of the observations under a normal distribution fall approximately under 2 standard deviations from the mean.

1.96, but yes.

Does this change when the distribution has fat tails?

Yes. It also changes with thin tails.

However, there are a lot of distributions with very roughly 95% within two standard deviations. Indeed, if we look at continuous symmetric unimodal distributions whose variance exists, there must be between 88% and 100% within two standard deviations.

On the other hand, in the general case, the limit is given by the Chebyshev inequality - i.e. it may be as low as 3/4.

What is the name of the theorem that guarantees this?

You don't actually need a theorem; a counterexample to the assertion that it's the case for all distributions would suffice to say that it changes (but since the Chebyshev bound is achievable, it's a good one to look at if you want to mention something). All you really need to do is just compute it for a few different distributions. e.g. look at a uniform and a , and some asymmetric and discrete cases.

One interesting case to consider is a distribution that has probability of at and at 0. Now move up and down between 0 and 1 and see the fraction inside two standard deviations can be changed quite a lot.

In that example, the variance is . If then the proportion inside 2 s.d.s is (so that proportion can be any value in ). Then for the proportion jumps to exactly 1, which means we can demonstrably achieve any value in , and 0.75 is the Chebyshev bound, so we can't go below 0.75. (It's a very handy distribution to play with.)

Answer from Glen_b on Stack Exchange
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Quora
quora.com › What-is-2-standard-deviations-from-the-mean
What is 2 standard deviations from the mean? - Quora
Answer (1 of 10): The previous answer was really good, but I just wanted to include this so it would be easier to understand, through a picture. This shows the standard deviations in a normal distribution.
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Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Standard_deviation
Standard deviation - Wikipedia
20 hours ago - If a data distribution is approximately normal then about 68 percent of the data values are within one standard deviation of the mean (mathematically, μ ± σ, where μ is the arithmetic mean), about 95 percent are within two standard deviations ...
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NCES Kids' Zone
nces.ed.gov › nationsreportcard › NDEHelp › WebHelp › standard_deviation.htm
Standard Deviation
The standard deviation represents ... deviation of scores about their arithmetic mean. Under general normality assumptions, 95% of the scores are within 2 standard deviations of the mean....
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Compilation and expansion of comments:

Let's presume your data is Normally distributed.

If you want to form two-sided error bars (or confidence intervals), say at the 95% level, you will need to base that on the Student t distribution with n-1 degrees of freedom, where n is the number of data points. You propose to have 2 data points, therefore requiring use of Student t with 1 degree of freedom.

95% 2-sided error bars for n = 2 data points require a multiplicative factor of 12.71 on the sample standard deviation, not the familiar factor of 1.96 based on the Normal (Student t with degrees of freedom). The corresponding multiplicative factor for n = 3 data points is 4.30.

The situation gets even more extreme for two-sided 99% error bars (confidence intervals).

As you can see, at either confidence level, there's a big "savings" in the multiplicative factor if you have 3 data points instead of 2. And you don't get dinged as badly by the use of n-1 vs. n in the denominator of sample standard deviation.

  n  Confidence Level  Multiplicative Factor
  2       0.95              12.71
  3       0.95               4.30
  4       0.95               3.18
  5       0.95               2.78
 infinity 0.95               1.96

  2       0.99              63.66
  3       0.99               9.92
  4       0.99               5.84
  5       0.99               4.60
 infinity 0.99               2.58
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Setting aside your initial explanation of the time-series context, it might be useful to look at this as a simple case of observing two data points. For any two observed values the sample standard deviation is . This statistic is exactly as informative as giving the sample range of the two values (since it is just a scalar multiple of that statistic). There is nothing inherently wrong with using this statistic as information on the standard deviation of the underlying distribution, but obviously there is a great deal of variability to this statistic.

The sampling distribution of the sample standard deviation depends on the underlying distribution for the observable values. In the special case where are normal values you have which is a scaled half-normal distribution. Obviously this means that your sample standard deviation is quite a poor estimator of the standard deviation parameter (biased and with high variance), but that is to be expected with so little data.

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Stack Overflow
stackoverflow.com › questions › 78050740 › how-to-do-mean-2standard-deviation
r - How to do [(mean) +- (2*standard deviation)] - Stack Overflow
Or, with the names in my previous comment, mean_sd <- c(lower = xbar -2*S, upper = xbar + 2*S). See help("c"). ... The mean, standard deviation and 95% confidence interval for the mean of the following variables in R
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Wolfram MathWorld
mathworld.wolfram.com › StandardDeviation.html
Standard Deviation -- from Wolfram MathWorld
March 10, 2011 - The standard deviation sigma of a probability distribution is defined as the square root of the variance sigma^2, sigma = sqrt( - ^2) (1) = sqrt(mu_2^'-mu^2), (2) where mu=x^_= is the mean, mu_2^'= is the second raw moment, and denotes the ...
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Math Answers
math.answers.com › other-math › How_do_you_calculate_two_standard_deviations_of_the_mean
How do you calculate two standard deviations of the mean? - Answers
April 28, 2022 - See the related links on how to calculate standard deviation. If there are more than a dozen data points, it is tedious to calculate by hand. Use excel or an online calculator. To get 2 standard deviations, multiply the calculated std deviation by 2.
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Calculator.net
calculator.net › home › math › standard deviation calculator
Standard Deviation Calculator
In cases where every member of ... find the standard deviation of the entire population: For those unfamiliar with summation notation, the equation above may seem daunting, but when addressed through its individual components, this summation is not particularly complicated. The i=1 in the summation indicates the starting index, i.e. for the data set 1, 3, 4, 7, 8, i=1 would be 1, i=2 would be 3, ...
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Scribbr
scribbr.com › home › how to calculate standard deviation (guide) | calculator & examples
How to Calculate Standard Deviation (Guide) | Calculator & Examples
March 28, 2024 - Around 68% of values are within 1 standard deviation of the mean. Around 95% of values are within 2 standard deviations of the mean.
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The BMJ
bmj.com › about-bmj › resources-readers › publications › statistics-square-one › 2-mean-and-standard-deviation
2. Mean and standard deviation
February 9, 2021 - The above equation can be seen to be true in Table 2.1, where the sum of the square of the observations, , is given as 43.7l. ... the same value given for the total in column (3). Care should be taken because this formula involves subtracting two large numbers to get a small one, and can lead to incorrect results if the numbers are very large. For example, try finding the standard deviation of 100001, 100002, 100003 on a calculator.
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CalculatorSoup
calculatorsoup.com › calculators › statistics › standard-deviation-calculator.php
Standard Deviation Calculator
November 4, 2025 - Calculates standard deviation and variance for a data set. Calculator finds standard deviation, the measure of data dispersion, and shows the work for the calculation.
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ScienceDirect
sciencedirect.com › topics › mathematics › standard-deviation
Standard Deviation - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics
Each data value will be some distance away from the average, and the standard deviation will summarize the extent of this variability. Consider another simple data set, but with some variability: ... These numbers represent the 1-year rates of return (eg, 2.6%), as of the end of September 2015, for the first four stocks (3M, American Express, Apple, and Boeing) in the Dow Jones Industrials.2 The average value again is
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University of Arizona
math.arizona.edu › ~rsims › ma464 › standardnormaltable.pdf pdf
Table Values Represent AREA to the LEFT of the Z score.
-0.2 .42074 · .41683 · .41294 · .40905 · .40517 · .40129 · .39743 · .39358 · .38974 · .38591 · -0.1 .46017 · .45620 · .45224 · .44828 · .44433 · .44038 · .43644 · .43251 · .42858 · .42465 · -0.0 .50000 · .49601 · .49202 · .48803 · .48405 · .48006 · .47608 · .47210 · .46812 · .46414 · STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION: Table Values Represent AREA to the LEFT of the Z score.
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Crafton Hills College
craftonhills.edu › current-students › tutoring-center › mathematics-tutoring › distribution_tables_normal_studentt_chisquared.pdf pdf
Confidence Interval Critical Values, zα/2 Level of Confidence
3.2 · 0.9993 · 0.9993 · 0.9994 · 0.9994 · 0.9994 · 0.9994 · 0.9994 · 0.9995 · 0.9995 · 0.9995 · 3.3 · 0.9995 · 0.9995 · 0.9995 · 0.9996 · 0.9996 · 0.9996 · 0.9996 · 0.9996 · 0.9996 · 0.9997 · 3.4 · 0.9997 · 0.9997 · 0.9997 · 0.9997 · 0.9997 · 0.9997 · 0.9997 · ...
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Conversion Uplift
conversion-uplift.co.uk › home › glossary › z score – definition and how to use
Z Score - Definition and How to Use - Conversion Uplift
July 26, 2023 - This shows that your test score is 2 standard deviations above the mean. In many instances we don’t know the population mean or the standard deviation. For this reason we often use the sample mean and standard deviation.