Now that Election Day 2024 is over, that means we’re already 1 month into election 2026! Dems have a mathematical advantage in the house given their razor thin 2 seat minority, but the senate could tell a different story.

What do you think? How do dems and GOP shake out in each chamber?

America is about eleven months away from the 2026 midterms and the race for control of the house and Senate is coming in full swing. While the redistricting in the house makes deciding who will ultimately win the house somewhat unpredictable, Republicans are the favored to win the Senate. so that begs the question of how the Senate will stand after the midterms, whether or not there is a possibility for Democrats to win, and by how much?

To get an estimate for where the election may go, I watched prediction videos by YouTube channels election time, and let's talk elections where they give their input on who will win.

Election time's video:

https://youtu.be/rX9UNrranMk?si=Mmt8avhYLxpzv33b

Let's talk elections video:

https://youtu.be/B9g_-v1p9tY?si=gpCLAHEOuoY5bmNB

here are seats in the midterms that both creators believe are safe for both sides as follows

Democrats:

• Oregon

• Massachusetts

• New jersey

Republican:

• Idaho

• Montana

• Wyoming

• South Dakota

• Kansas

• Oklahoma

• Louisiana

• Mississippi

• Arkansas

• Alabama

• Tennessee

• Kentucky

• West Virginia

As for their predictions on the more competitive states

• Both agree that New Mexico, north Carolina and Georgia will be lean or likely towards Democrats

• Both agree that Iowa, Florida, and Ohio will lean towards Republicans

• Election time predicts that while he anticipates Pete rickets to win, marked the seat as lean independent while let's talk elections believes it will lean towards Republicans

• Both creators predict Texas will lean republican. John Cornyn is the favored Republican candidate, however Cornyn has competition for his seat in the form of ken Paxton. Let's talk elections says James talerico is their favored Democratic candidate over jasmine Crockett and election time believes Crockett leans too far left for Texas to elect her, however crockett holds a lead over talerico. Regardless of who the candidates are, it doesn't change the fact that Texas will be an uphill battle for Democrats that may not realistically be worth winning

• While election time predicts that Michigan will flip for Republicans, let's talk elections believes Democrats will hold on to that seat

• Let's talk elections predicts that Maine will flip for Democrats, election time kept the seat red on the basis that the Republican is the incumbent but it could go either way

• Election time believes Colorado, Minnesota, Illinois, new Hampshire, and Virginia will lean or likely Democrat while lets talk elections believes these states are safe for Democrats

• Election time believes South Carolina is lean or likely towards Republicans while let's talk elections believes it is safe

Overall

• election time predicts that that Republicans will have at least 52 seats, Democrats will have 47 seats, with a possibility of 1 independent seat.

• Let's talk elections predicts Republicans will have 51 seats and Democrats will have 49

Let's keep in mind that we are still quite a ways away from the midterms and anything can happen, but it will regardless be a very uphill battle for Democrats.

I think we will see a continuation of trends that have played out the past decade. The party in charge cannot address problems people feel in the economy then the party out of power wins until they also can't meet the moment either due to incompetence or they dont care.

I see this cycle continuing for awhile. Right now democrats are making a comeback. But I dont believe they'll meet the moment to convince voters to not vote for the next Trump. Here are my reasons:

1. For the most part, the economy is what it is and can't be changed by one administration. There are global factors, trade routes, new technologies like AI that influence the general path the economy can go. I think you can screw it up if you declare war on all your neighbors but you can't really make it better. Maybe democrats will get lucky and will inherit an economy that has lower inflation and better jobs numbers.

2. Democrats dont have it in them to undo Trump's norm/rule breaking. Now that it's established presidents have criminal immunity from official acts democrats will be way less willing to go after him and a lot of the people in the administration for things like accepting bribes from foreign governments, threatening lawmakers with death, or anything Trump had gotten away with previously. It's now going to be totally normal for president going forward to not spend money on things that it was appropriated for by congress because it was done blatantly by the Trump administration and nobody seemed to care.

3. Democrats are also unpopular. They're seen as weak and don't meaningfully oppose republicans. I dont think that means they should be doing economic populism-I still don't think Americans are on board for Zohranification of the country and understand that trying to expand the government in a time of a bad economy is probably a bad idea. They should fight though. Try to preserve democracy and the constitution because those are the best things we can probably hope for.

4. Democrats have a weak bench. The best we'll probably get is Gavin Newsome. I think whatever staffers he has will meme the shit out of his presidency but when it comes down to it he'll want to move forward, not backward like Obama.

Points​ 1-4 make me believe that things wont be meaningfully better from 2028-2032. Which means we'll see more MAGA or whatever the new thing on the right is. Americans wont care if it's terrible or fascist, America may even love it as younger Gen Z and Gen Alpha who have never known anything different will gladly embrace it for 4 years before either becoming disengaged or voting for the opposition in anger like the rest of us.

I won't provide a delta for people that try to make a point that the next few elections will be stolen as a way the status quo could be changed.

I ask because of the contentious town halls that have been occuring in red congressional districts. Mike Johnson ordered Republican House members to stop holding them in person. Constituents seem to be coming out against certain DOGE actions such as its approach to the Social Security administration, Medicaid, and other programs.

I phrased it as 'anti-MAGA' rather than 'anti-Trump' because I imagine that any such candidates would have to dance around the central figure of Trump, while pledging to address certain unpopular aspects of the MAGA program, Elon Musk's DOGE in particular.

How likely or unlikely is this to happen, and are there any Republican members of Congress who might be particularly vulnerable to this?

Alright, I need to make a few things clear here.

First, I don't usually like "nostradamusing" i.e. making a point or argument based on future events. It is almost always a useless activity, but this particular one feels different, which I hope I clearly show later.

Second, I have not subscribed to nor encouraged the "most important election of our lives/all history" rhetoric that so many liberals have spouted for at least 3 election cycles if not more. They sound like chicken little or the boy who cried wolf, and my argument here and now has been weakened because of earlier gloom-and-doomerism about politics and elections. So I need to make it clear that I have never thought this way about politics.

Thirdly, this is not itself a doomerism post, though some people think any negative reactions about current events are doomerism. I am a hopeful person. I have hope, not because things look promising, but despite what I see, because I must. I must believe people can do better and we can become better, because the alternatives are full despair or selfish nihilism. People have defeated fascism in the past. Black Americans survived slavery, lynchings, the KKK, Jim Crow and more. This current political movement - Trump's MAGA - will eventually go away. I don't know when, but eventually it will.

But here comes a fear I have. The 2026 midterms will happen. And there are really only two possible immediate outcomes: Democrats make significant gains and take control of the House of Reps (and maybe the Senate, but that isn't necessary imo), or they do not. Maybe they win a few seats but still don't take over, maybe somehow they lose more seats than they gain, whatever. But those are the possibilities.

Now, if Democrats do win the House, then we will move forward. From my position, Dems still have an uphill battle to fight against not just conservatism and undo Trump's harms but against moderate-ism and centrism and the long-standing Democrat propensity to not set lofty goals and so not achieve any lofty goals. We have shit to do, and a failure to do them will result in, probably, another far right political movement, and another. So we have work to do, but at least we will have a reason to hope we can try.

But should the Democrats fail to take significant control of the house, then I think people who care about democracy, freedom, civil rights, safety, etc, should be scared of being in the United States. That is what I want people to Change My View about.

Why?

Because of what it indicates about our election integrity and, therefore, the foreseeable prospects of any potential for electoral change; or because it indicates a strengthening of the far right fascist movement by Americans who see Trump's America and said "Yes Daddy Trump, more boot, please, step harder!" which is also terrifying, and because I see Trump and his cabinet as ghoulish, awful people who are trying to escalate overt authoritarianism and want to violently enforce their vision of what society should be.

Midterm elections have historically favored the party opposed to the incumbent president. Americans have goldfish brains. We wouldn't have elected Trump at all, and it should not have even been close in 2024, if we had better political memories. Trump was a bad, bumbling, ineffective leader in his first term. At best his divisive rhetoric was blowhardiness a lot of people (wrongly) took for folksiness and unfiltered honesty. But here we are, because people forgot how bad he was when he was 8 years 'fresher' and not a vindictive older man.

So they have soured on him. Polling shows a steady decline in support for him this year. So by all reasonable measures, the democrats shouldn't need brilliant campaigns to accomplish a rather significant blue wave. They should coast to victory because the president is deeply unpopular and even with less divisive, controversial figures, swing voters have a strong tendency to want to check the incumbent's power by switching.

If that doesn't happen in 2026, I think that's a panic-worthy event. That would feel like a "Break Glass in Case of Emergency" situation.

I don't know what actions to take, it would be different for everyone, but considering fleeing the country, or moving and bunkering or whatever you think makes you and your family feel safe are all reasonable discussions. So would true resistance movements. Abandoning electoral energy for true revolutionary actions would seem reasonable too.

I know we're not there yet. And a lot of things can happen in a year - God knows - but I think a Democrat failure in 2026 would be a major tripwire for people on the left to consider dramatic changes to their lives.

Change my view.

I see a lot of folks saying that Dems have a blue wave in the bag in 2026, but I don’t have that confidence. I wanted to create this post to chat about the likely scenarios for flipping the House/Senate in their favor in 2026.

Obviously we're still far out from the midterms, but given yesterdays results in Florida and Wisconsin, the GOP fears RE Stefanik, a dem winning in Amish country, etc., have any of you changed your minds on senate elections? What states do you think are in play that weren't a few weeks ago? Do you think the momentum will last (Dems always show up in the midterms but do you think it'll be Stalin numbers still)?

Also, l'm curious to hear people's opinions on potential primaries. For example, do you think it’ll be a tougher time for Fetterman surviving one without switching parties, especially if Shapiro decides to run or Casey comes back. For the GOP, what do you think those primaries look like - MAGA primaries or stay conventional (e.g., MTG in Georgia spoiling it like Robinson or Lake)?

Feel free to bring up any House or gubernatorial elections, but statewide races are more interesting.

Asking this because I see this as more and more likely. That midterm election could easily become the start of an anti-conservative backlash. It may or may not be similar to the anti-woke backlash in the later part of the 2010s.

Been following US politics for a while, and something tells me that the midterms are on track of having a blue wave. I may be biased because I watch MSNBC and listen to David Pakman, but here is why I say that:

Aside from the fact that history shows the party in power rarely wins midterm elections, Trump has been pretty unpopular since his return as president. The polls show him at 38%. And there is multiple reasons for that: the shutdown is the most recent, but the tariffs have almost crashed the US economy, the ICE raids were very unpopular, so was sending the National Guard, and Musk’s firings also hurt Trump’s polls. Even among his base, cracks are showing, mainly due to the Epstein files. Epstein was a massively huge part of the MAGA mythos, and Trump’s refusal to release the files cost him a lot of supporters. Sure, he can make as many empty threats to arrest Obama which he will never do as he wants, walk on the White House roof for as long as he wants, manufacture fake controversies for as long as he wants (like the Sydney Sweeney stuff), bomb as many Venezuelan fishermen boats as he wants, NONE of these distractions work. While Trump still has cultist supporters, it’s pretty clear he losing some of them, especially those who are attached to the Epstein files (in case you don’t know, a dude literally burned his MAGA hat because of this).

There is also the fact that the Democrats, both the politicians and the voters, are waking the hell up right now: ever since Trump was re-elected and re-inaugurated, Democrats have won more special elections than I can count, and most of the elections on November 4, 2025 that were talked about were wins for the Democrats: for example, Prop 50 passed in California, so it will be impossible to rig the midterms in red states without blue states striking back (if you think what is happening in CA will not energize other blue states then you don’t know what a domino effect is), Zohran Mamdani won the mayoral election in NYC and the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections have been won by Democrats.

So yeah, vote in the midterms of course, but expect the Democrats to win. In fact, Trump is scared, that is why he is doing all this National Guard stuff, and he should be because the good guys are winning like they always do.

People know what's up now, and their minds will change. Midterms will disrupt the entire agenda, and we'll return to the right track.

I've seen some crazy reactions to recent events from people who grew up on EBT and Medicaid who voted for Trump. They finally understand that elections have consequences. If such a realization can happen in one week, imagine what a year will do.

I believe in America. I know it's hard right now, but this won't last forever. We are a massive, beautiful country that has survived the bad and will endure the worst. What matters is that we make it out every time.

Love you all <3

To clarify a few things: im not an american and I dont know every detail that happens in congress or the white house but from how I see it:

Trumps approval ratings fell bellow 40% and the republican party isnt really on the same page on every issue. Controversial foreign policies and the whole epstein dilemma make me question whether they can keep a majority the house and congress.

How likely is it for the Republicans to lose the midterms ,and what do they have to do in order to avoid a loss?

I know there are many posts and threads out there asking whether Trump will pull a last minute move to delay/postpone the election. Some say, he may not accept the results.

But let me ask you a different question, whats the likelihood democrats even gain some meaningful seats in the first place?

Trump hasn’t lost any major support within his base even with tariffs causing market fluctuations or farmers facing bankruptcy. So it’s a given with his endorsement any GOP candidate that seeks him out will benefit from an energized voter base who think we are winning and “America is back.”

Meanwhile it seems the democratic voter base is depressed and doesn’t have a lot of faith in the DNC or its leaders, right now. Sure, protests are ongoing but it’s hard to translate them into votes. Will they be able to keep up the fire until 2026? Or will it fizzle out?

My main concern right now is the democratic voter base either losing hope, or even worse grow apathetic.

I think there are serious efforts to disenfranchise voters that Republicans know are critical to their social engineering plans. The Voter Rights Act and the National Voter Registration Act will be gutted. The Department of Justice's Civil Rights Division will practially cease to exist. And of course, minor mistakes in the voting process including not possessing a drivers license, could be made a crime --> felony with voting rights stripped.

So 2026 will still be a legal election except it will only be accessible to some people.

It is also likely the Federal government will take control of State voter rolls and then indulge in massive purges in swing states.

The FBI which is already under attack, will be prevented from combating misinformation and likely also the cybersecurity infrastructure.

And... social media companies will further spread disinformation and falsehoods.

Oh wait... this has already happened.

Trump's approval keeps plunging-soon enough, he's wondering if Biden felt this way back in 2022, as the Democratic base looks ready to tear the GOP to pieces in the midterms. The Republicans banked on holding back the tide with their base-and with Trump going through with about 2/3rds of his notable policies, the GOP running mildly good campaigns in many seats, and some Democratic incompetence, this pans out decently for them.

House-This is not a good night to be either House leader. In Johnson's case, he lost his majority-though barring something crazy, he should be able to put down the rebels and begin the road to taking it back. For Hakeem Jeffries, this is embarrassing. When the closest race (California's 13th, again) is called, the Democrats stand at 224-while they took 13 GOP seats that were close last time, none of the Harris-won ones flipped, and they lost ME-02, OH-9, TX-34, and NY-3. This is more than enough for the Squad to pin the blame on Jeffries, with it looking more likely than not they-and possibly others in the party-don't back him on the first ballot. He better think quick.

Senate-Democrats held out hope until election day that long shot bids in red states would do what they though impossible and pull them over the finish line. However, while they managed to keep 2010 as the last time the tipping point was in the double digits, it was not to be. Cooper took down Thillis, but Collins clung on stubbornly. Georgia goes to a recount when Ossoff goes below 50%-Kemp is expected to lose it, but Democrats better stay woke at the wheel. Despite a pretty subpar night, a dark horse in Kansas and Independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska at least spook the local Senators somewhat.

Gubernatorial-The Republicans do the best here in terms of seats lost/gained. While Georgia and Alaska just barely go down, they manage to flip Kansas (although the local Democrats go down swinging) Michigan (mostly due to Duggan), and, in the biggest shock of the night, New York. That being said, Arizona holds, and Abbott as well as Ohio's nominee do somewhat embarrassingly.

Margins: Hold/Gain in the House, 15/10/5/1/<1 elsewhere.

I’ve been thinking quite a bit lately about the midterm elections. I know we all have high hopes that the FAFO folks are having second thoughts, but I also personally have MAGA family that will never in a million years vote Blue just because … reasons.

And yes I know many of you will say “bold of you to assume we will have elections” … suspend reality then, and assume we do. 😐 Do you think the red wave will continue? Do you think the Democratic Party can get their shit together before then?