America is about eleven months away from the 2026 midterms and the race for control of the house and Senate is coming in full swing. While the redistricting in the house makes deciding who will ultimately win the house somewhat unpredictable, Republicans are the favored to win the Senate. so that begs the question of how the Senate will stand after the midterms, whether or not there is a possibility for Democrats to win, and by how much?

To get an estimate for where the election may go, I watched prediction videos by YouTube channels election time, and let's talk elections where they give their input on who will win.

Election time's video:

https://youtu.be/rX9UNrranMk?si=Mmt8avhYLxpzv33b

Let's talk elections video:

https://youtu.be/B9g_-v1p9tY?si=gpCLAHEOuoY5bmNB

here are seats in the midterms that both creators believe are safe for both sides as follows

Democrats:

• Oregon

• Massachusetts

• New jersey

Republican:

• Idaho

• Montana

• Wyoming

• South Dakota

• Kansas

• Oklahoma

• Louisiana

• Mississippi

• Arkansas

• Alabama

• Tennessee

• Kentucky

• West Virginia

As for their predictions on the more competitive states

• Both agree that New Mexico, north Carolina and Georgia will be lean or likely towards Democrats

• Both agree that Iowa, Florida, and Ohio will lean towards Republicans

• Election time predicts that while he anticipates Pete rickets to win, marked the seat as lean independent while let's talk elections believes it will lean towards Republicans

• Both creators predict Texas will lean republican. John Cornyn is the favored Republican candidate, however Cornyn has competition for his seat in the form of ken Paxton. Let's talk elections says James talerico is their favored Democratic candidate over jasmine Crockett and election time believes Crockett leans too far left for Texas to elect her, however crockett holds a lead over talerico. Regardless of who the candidates are, it doesn't change the fact that Texas will be an uphill battle for Democrats that may not realistically be worth winning

• While election time predicts that Michigan will flip for Republicans, let's talk elections believes Democrats will hold on to that seat

• Let's talk elections predicts that Maine will flip for Democrats, election time kept the seat red on the basis that the Republican is the incumbent but it could go either way

• Election time believes Colorado, Minnesota, Illinois, new Hampshire, and Virginia will lean or likely Democrat while lets talk elections believes these states are safe for Democrats

• Election time believes South Carolina is lean or likely towards Republicans while let's talk elections believes it is safe

Overall

• election time predicts that that Republicans will have at least 52 seats, Democrats will have 47 seats, with a possibility of 1 independent seat.

• Let's talk elections predicts Republicans will have 51 seats and Democrats will have 49

Let's keep in mind that we are still quite a ways away from the midterms and anything can happen, but it will regardless be a very uphill battle for Democrats.

I primarily want to see what those on the left see as the possible paths to control of the Senate.

If you think there is a good chance why? What seats do you think will be flipped?

If you think there is a bad chance why? Do you think there will be any more gains by the Republicans? Will the Democrats still gain?

Obviously we're still far out from the midterms, but given yesterdays results in Florida and Wisconsin, the GOP fears RE Stefanik, a dem winning in Amish country, etc., have any of you changed your minds on senate elections? What states do you think are in play that weren't a few weeks ago? Do you think the momentum will last (Dems always show up in the midterms but do you think it'll be Stalin numbers still)?

Also, l'm curious to hear people's opinions on potential primaries. For example, do you think it’ll be a tougher time for Fetterman surviving one without switching parties, especially if Shapiro decides to run or Casey comes back. For the GOP, what do you think those primaries look like - MAGA primaries or stay conventional (e.g., MTG in Georgia spoiling it like Robinson or Lake)?

Feel free to bring up any House or gubernatorial elections, but statewide races are more interesting.

The 2024 US Senate election was highly unfavourable for Democrats as they lost 3 seats (Montana, Ohio and West Virginia) and are likely to lose another in Pennsylvania depending on recounts. Therefore, they will have 47 seats (including Sanders and King) to the Republicans 53 seats in the next Congress. So they will need a net gain at least 4 seats in 2026 to become the majority party.

The 2026 US Senate map is much more favourable to Democrats compared to 2024. In 2026, only 13 Democratic held seats up for election compared to 20 for Republicans (22 if you include JD Vance’s Ohio seat and Marco Rubio’s Florida seat). In addition, the 2026 election cycle is a during a midterm election hence the opposing party to the president usually performs well.

Most seats up for election are uncompetitive so the Republicans should retain: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida (special election - Rubio’s seat), Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wyoming. This leaves them on 49 seats.

Likewise the Democrats should retain: Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island and Virginia. This leaves them on 45 seats.

Therefore, there are 6 seats up for grabs including: Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Ohio (special election - JD Vance’s seat). Democrats need to win all 6 just to get a majority which is challenging.

Georgia and Michigan are likely to remain Democratic. North Carolina has the potential to flip to the Democrats and they have ran close in the last few elections. Maine should be an easy Democratic win is complicated by the fact that Susan Collins is running for re-election and is popular in their state. Iowa is difficult and could only be flipped in a blue wave election. Ohio is trending Republican but if Sherod Brown stands, the Democrats have a chance to flip the state. Brown outperformed Harris in this state this cycle.

So what is the likely outcome of the 2026 US Senate elections? Do Democrats have a chance to gain seats and potentially flip control of the chamber?

I think there are serious efforts to disenfranchise voters that Republicans know are critical to their social engineering plans. The Voter Rights Act and the National Voter Registration Act will be gutted. The Department of Justice's Civil Rights Division will practially cease to exist. And of course, minor mistakes in the voting process including not possessing a drivers license, could be made a crime --> felony with voting rights stripped.

So 2026 will still be a legal election except it will only be accessible to some people.

It is also likely the Federal government will take control of State voter rolls and then indulge in massive purges in swing states.

The FBI which is already under attack, will be prevented from combating misinformation and likely also the cybersecurity infrastructure.

And... social media companies will further spread disinformation and falsehoods.

Oh wait... this has already happened.

While incredibly early and a year-and-a-half away, the 2026 Midterm Elections are rapidly approaching.

Of the 35 Senate elections (33 regular elections plus 2 Special Elections in Florida and Ohio), which of these states (the uncolored/gray ones) do you think has the most potential for Democrats to flip from Red to Blue, and who do you think should run for them to flip?

Remember that Democrats only need to flip 3 GOP-held seats for a 50-50 split and 4 for an outright 51-49 majority.

Here are my Top 5 Target States:

• Maine (Cook PVI: D+4) - Susan Collins (R) (Incumbent)

• North Carolina (Cook PVI: R+1) - Thom Tillis (R) (Incumbent)

• Florida (Special) (Cook PVI: R+5) - Ashley Moody (R) (Incumbent)

• Ohio (Special) (Cook PVI: R+5) - Jon Husted (R) (Incumbent)

• Alaska/Iowa/Texas (Cook PVI: R+6)

  • Alaska - Dan Sullivan (R) (Incumbent)

  • Iowa - Joni Ernst (R) (Incumbent)

  • Texas - John Cornyn (R) (Incumbent)/Ken Paxton (R) (Primary Challenger)

With Republicans currently in control of both chambers, I’m wondering what people think the realistic chances are that Democrats can flip either the House or the Senate or both in the 2026 midterms. What trends, issues, or key races could help them pull it off? Are there early signs from polling, turnout, or fundraising that suggest momentum one way or the other?

Curious to hear thoughts from people who follow this stuff closely.

Cook Political, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball agree that these 8 seats are in play:

Iowa

Cook: LIkely R || InsideElections: Likely R || Sabato: Likely R

Georgia

Tossup || Tossup || Tossup

Maine

Leans R || Tilts R || Leans R

Michigan

Tossup || Tossup || Tossup

Minnesota

Likely D || Likely D || Leans D

New Hampshire

Leans D || Leans D || Leans D

North Carolina

Tossup || Tossup || Tossup

Texas

Likely R || Likely R || LIkely R

I'm not asking if every senate seat will turn Democrat, but just the States where there is a plausible chance of a Democrat defeating an incumbent Republican.

Okay everyone, I know there’s a lot to focus on, but we also need to start organizing for 2026 elections and beyond to oust the Democrats that have made it clear they don’t work for us. I am personally skeptical about how “free and fair” 2026 will be (if it happens at all) but I’ve put together a list of the Senate races specifically, as there are less of them up in 2026 vs. all of the House. 

With that being said, however, we still need to be vigilant about the House and there are absolutely seats to flip if we put in the work — and with how angry everyone is and how much worse things will get, the Republicans are going to be doing a lot of the work for us themselves. Also it should be noted that I am not a pollster, most of this data was lifted from 270towin. 

Dems to Primary that voted “Yes” on Cloture:

• HI - Brian Schatz — Primary in 2028

• IL - Dick Durbin — Primary in 2026

• ME - Angus King — Primary in 2030

• MI - Gary Peters — not running for re-election; U.S. Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet is considering running for this seat as of 3/12

• NH - Maggie Hassan — Primary in 2028

• NH - Jeanne Shaheen — not running for re-election; Dem candidate has not yet stepped forward

• NV - Catherine Cortez Masto — Primary in 2028

• NY - Kirsten Gillibrand — Primary in 2030

• NY - Chuck Schumer — Primary in 2028

• PA - John Fetterman — Primary in 2028

Opportunities for flips based on 2024:

• FL - Ashley Moody, replaced Marco Rubio (rated red, but if we can organize and mobilize, maybe?)

• IA - Joni Ernst (also rated red, but if we can organize and mobilize, maybe?)

• ME - Susan Collins (might be a long shot, but currently rated a toss-up)

• NC - Thom Tillis (currently rated a toss-up)

2026 At Risk Democrat re-elections:

• GA - Jon Ossoff

• MI - U.S. Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (currently unconfirmed), not the incumbent

• MN - Tina Smith — not running for re-election; Melisa López Franzen is running for this seat

• NH - Jeanne Shaheen — not running for re-election; Dem candidate has not yet stepped forward

• NM - Ben Ray Lujan

There are more Republicans up for re-election this cycle, so if we can flip a few seats and while also not losing any and elect those who are replacing the outgoing incumbents, we can regain the Senate — however, it is a long shot based on the map. (see: Senate Map)

2026 Rated Safe Democrat re-elections:

• CO - John Hickenlooper

• DE - Chris Coons

• IL - Dick Durbin (“Yes” on Cloture vote, we need a primary challenger)

• MA - Ed Markey

• NJ - Cory Booker

• OR - Jeff Merkley

• RI - Jack Reed

• VA - Mark Warner

These are the candidates that we should be donating to phone banking or volunteering for. We should also be encouraging both House and Senate Dems to hold town halls so that these people are being seen by constituents, even if those constituents are not their own, because people may be more inclined to vote for someone they've seen and feel heard by. Thoughts?

I think we will see a continuation of trends that have played out the past decade. The party in charge cannot address problems people feel in the economy then the party out of power wins until they also can't meet the moment either due to incompetence or they dont care.

I see this cycle continuing for awhile. Right now democrats are making a comeback. But I dont believe they'll meet the moment to convince voters to not vote for the next Trump. Here are my reasons:

1. For the most part, the economy is what it is and can't be changed by one administration. There are global factors, trade routes, new technologies like AI that influence the general path the economy can go. I think you can screw it up if you declare war on all your neighbors but you can't really make it better. Maybe democrats will get lucky and will inherit an economy that has lower inflation and better jobs numbers.

2. Democrats dont have it in them to undo Trump's norm/rule breaking. Now that it's established presidents have criminal immunity from official acts democrats will be way less willing to go after him and a lot of the people in the administration for things like accepting bribes from foreign governments, threatening lawmakers with death, or anything Trump had gotten away with previously. It's now going to be totally normal for president going forward to not spend money on things that it was appropriated for by congress because it was done blatantly by the Trump administration and nobody seemed to care.

3. Democrats are also unpopular. They're seen as weak and don't meaningfully oppose republicans. I dont think that means they should be doing economic populism-I still don't think Americans are on board for Zohranification of the country and understand that trying to expand the government in a time of a bad economy is probably a bad idea. They should fight though. Try to preserve democracy and the constitution because those are the best things we can probably hope for.

4. Democrats have a weak bench. The best we'll probably get is Gavin Newsome. I think whatever staffers he has will meme the shit out of his presidency but when it comes down to it he'll want to move forward, not backward like Obama.

Points​ 1-4 make me believe that things wont be meaningfully better from 2028-2032. Which means we'll see more MAGA or whatever the new thing on the right is. Americans wont care if it's terrible or fascist, America may even love it as younger Gen Z and Gen Alpha who have never known anything different will gladly embrace it for 4 years before either becoming disengaged or voting for the opposition in anger like the rest of us.

I won't provide a delta for people that try to make a point that the next few elections will be stolen as a way the status quo could be changed.