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What are your predictions on how much the apple stock per share will cost? I reckon it will reach 280 easily within the first 3 months and then it'll settle down.
As the title says -- -I have about 1200 shares, purchased about 15 years ago. Waffling on whether to cash out now before the 50% additional tariffs become a reality or hold until some future date when things return to "normal".
Now I’m not saying to sell all of your Apple stock immediately. However, given that:
The Vision Pro was a dud, they’re pulling back manufacturing/production
iPhone sales are down almost 10%
Services didn’t grow as much as we thought they would
Apple doing a buyback instead of investing more in R&D (it seems like they’re doing a lot of buybacks lately..)
Slow growth in critical markets like China
No major product line releases in the future. The Vision Pro was a dud and was too expensive - they thought about doing a car but cancelled that. What’s the next new thing?
Do I think Apple is doomed? Absolutely not. I love their products, especially the m series MacBooks.
But these points above are a little troubling. TBH I think Microsoft has a brighter future than AAPL. They hold a bigger grip/monopoly on commercial software.
I’m just worried aapl won’t really be a growth stock anymore.
Hey everyone, I’ve been tracking Apple (AAPL) for a while now — it’s currently trading in the higher $190s. Given its strong brand, consistent cash flow, and dominant market position, it’s clearly a great business. But from a value investing standpoint, the current price seems pretty rich, especially when factoring in growth slowing in key segments and increasing competition.
I’m trying to identify a reasonable margin of safety before initiating a position. What are your thoughts on a fair intrinsic value for Apple? What’s your target buy price, and what valuation method are you using (DCF, multiples, etc.)? Would love to hear some perspectives.
Basically the title. AAPL had an amazing run but has run into serious headwind these past weeks and now the downgrades from analysts.
I’ve never been one to buy into the AI hype but Apple’s implementation simply can’t work with their commitment to privacy. From a tech perspective, I believe the looser the restrictions in the name of privacy, the better the results. Which is why Siri has always sucked.
There’s only so much you can do with on-device models. Developing a pattern based on your data will help. It also helps advertisers. Again, in my opinion why Google is better at AI.
AAPL will have to just fall back on hardware and unless they unveil a folding iPhone next year, I have a bad feeling about their stock price.
AAPL is way down from its December high of about $200. I know there is a lot hanging over the stock, not least declining China sales and the DoJ’s intervention.
But does the current price represent good value?
After all, the DoJ investigation might drag on for so long it becomes background noise or disappear altogether, sales in China may bounce back or be balanced out by improved sales elsewhere, especially if Gemini is integrated as we’re told.
And in terms of the present, UBS maintain their price target of $190 and the stock is trading at a discounted forward p/e.
I’m tempted to get in tomorrow.
What do you think?
Lets keep it simple. We can likely both agree that drama with the fed is a net negative. But...I cant quantify it so I'll call it a qualitative zero impact to be conservative. The earnings yieldis about 3.8% currently. The earnings yield on the 2028 projected (2 analysts in IB) earnings is 5.2% - certainly better but still pretty meh. Lets say they retire 10% of their shares in the next 4 years. If they do that its close to 5.7%. Getting better-ish. Since 2020 the stock has traded at about 23 times cash flow per share and that is about $170 a share but prior to 2020 its was trading closer to 12 times cash flow.. My quick take is: the stock isn't cheap from an earnings perspective and its sitting right at it historical valuation (last 4 years). If the drama with the feds causes problems at the business (or worse) then the stock might return to its lower 12 time cash flow valuation in the medium term. if that happens then it has quite a bit of downside risk. Whether the stock treads water and lets the valuation catch up or the opposite idk. Or if the market shrugs off the entire issue and continues to use the stock as a safe haven and melts higher idk. But it isn't cheap and I'd be waiting on the sidelines to see what happens or at most buy a little bit an watch and hope for lower prices. Just my take. Best of luck!
There will be better entry points IMO. Wait until the WWDC. If they announce some exciting news regarding Vision Pro and AI then that might be a good time to jump in.
Will Apple go to 500 dollars by 2026? I'm thinking it will hit 1500 in 20 years and split 3 more times at 500. I would have 13,000 shares if it did three more 4-1 splits.
Congrats to those that followed my last Costco post. I don’t believe anyone can really predict the ups and downs of the market, and with the current market climbing past ATH’s, the safest bets are going to be balanced long-short positions in specific equities or spread bets.
Apple
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Market cap: 3.6T
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Current P/E: ~36
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Average P/E last 5 years: 28.6
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Historical revenue growth: Flat to single digits
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Earnings growth: Low double digits
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Net Margin: 25%
Microsoft
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Market cap: 3.2T
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Microsoft P/E: ~36
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Average P/E last 5 years: 32.8
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Historical revenue growth: 15%
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Earnings growth: 15-20%
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Net margin: 35%
Last week, Apple had a higher P/E than MSFT, before this narrowed in the last few days Relative to Microsoft. Apple is still at historically high valuations relative to MSFT, despite Microsoft having better margins and growth. And the reasons are silly. Apple is getting a massive boost due to a "potential supercycle" with no proof that it’s actually happening (even the most optimistic projections are just slightly better than last year) and mediocre software releases, while Microsoft took a large hit last quarter because it forecasted larger capex and delays in direct GenAI revenue realization.
In my view, the market is pricing in a divergent and fundamental misunderstanding of GenAI and how it makes money. The Apple bull case hypothesis is correct, it’s just applied to the wrong company. The Microsoft supercycle isn’t going to be from direct GenAI subscriptions like Co-pilot, it’s going to be share shift towards Azure and increased utilization.
To me it is hopium to believe that retail consumers will be rushing aggressively to switch or upgrade their phones over a nascent GenAI capability that is inferior to its peers (other than privacy) and unlocks nominal value, while mid-large corporates won’t be doing the exact same for Microsoft for what is widely considered a top-notch set of capabilities and proven effectiveness in several emerging use cases.
Here’s my prediction – regardless of where the market goes, I believe there is going to be a strong and continued divergence between Microsoft & Apple performance in the next few months, with at least another 5% gap between the winner and loser, with Microsoft’s P/E once against comfortably retaking the lead from Apple. Good luck and we'll see!
Tl;dr: Short Apple / Long Microsoft
P.S. Seeing a lot of people triggered by the tl;dr recommendation not having a basic understanding of what long-short position is. A balanced long-short position doesn't mean I believe Apple will go down on nominal terms, just that it will go down relative to Microsoft. Using options or a long-short position is the way to extract value when you see the spread in two equities increase.
Compared to other companies such as Meta, Microsoft, or Google, it doesn’t seem like Apple’s stock growth has been that great lately.
Now, it is widely known that Apple can afford to be slower to the AI game since people will use their devices regardless. But, it still seems like they are doing it very very slowly and not giving it as much urgency as other Big Tech companies.
Nvidia and Microsoft recently overtook Apple as the world’s largest companies by market cap.
Where does this go next, and will Apple slowly become smaller than even more companies, and will they collapse in the next 50 years or so?
What is your forecast on Apple stock?
Apple has had 1,044% gain in 10 years; 267% in the past 5 years.
Google has had 545% in the past 10 years; 135% in the past 5 years.
Microsoft has had 725% in the past 10 years; 336% in the past 5 years.
I was thinking about it, and would it be a bad idea to just split my money in a couple stocks (still looking at the other long term companies, but probably Google and Microsoft) but just keep it there for the next 10 years or whenever I need it?
If i invest my savings of just shy of 100k, and contribute bi-weekly (each part of my paycheck I can buy more stocks) I could add about 40-50k annually.
Is this a bad idea? I understand the concept of diversifying but I also don't believe these companies will be overshadowed in the next 10 years. Is there something I'm not considering? Why do people overly diversify and routinely buy and sell? How often do people go 'ultra long' on stocks?
People don't diversify to get better returns. They diversify so IF something drastically happens to Microsoft, you don't fuck your entire life savings and retirement.
A major lawsuit, a scandal, a CEO dying and new innovation changing the industry etc.
It's risk reward. Its probable you'll do much better holding these stocks, but there is a risk it can go badly wrong.
People forget downfalls in Tech so quickly. IBM, nokia,... Just imagine having all your savings in those two
Looking at the five year chart, it looks like AAPL is almost back to all time high at $179.45 on Dec 10, 2021.
During the past two years, I don’t see Apple releasing any innovative product. Yet the economic situation and consumer spending today is obviously worse than 2021.
What do y’all think about $AAPL at $175 today? Is there more room for $AAPL to grow or is it time to trim down some positions?
I bought a hundred shares of AAPL. That evening I told my mother, an experienced investor, and she was horrified. ‘Oh, I don’t know, Apple has gone up so much the last year or two! I’m not sure it can keep going!’
The year was 2004. Happily I decided to ignore mom and stick with Apple.
Apple is one of those companies you just hold until you really need the money. No one can predict what will happen in the next few years. What we do know is Apple is going to continue raking in insane profit and people love their products.