Earnings play, their earnings is after market on Thursday Dec 18th.

First couple quarters where they have achieved profitability and had positive EPS for the first times in years. They are making a turn around and have good sales and partnerships. Their QNX real time operating system has good growth the past years. Cybersecurity department also good growth, and will probably continue to grow as more and more companies switch to AI.

Last ER they raised their outlook and raised guidance for whole year. I assume they will do the same again for this upcoming ER. Charts look good.

If miss, I’m prepared to baghold for next 2 months to salvage whatever I can. YOLO

BlackBerry is not a dead brand. It’s not a failed smartphone company. It’s not just another stock that spikes when retail traders pile in and then disappears.

It is a deeply entrenched, high-margin infrastructure software business that has gone completely unnoticed in the AI-driven rally. While every software stock remotely connected to AI, IoT, or automation trades at sky-high valuations, BlackBerry—which powers 255M+ vehicles and counting—still trades like a company with no future.

The reality is different. BlackBerry dominates real-time, safety-critical automotive systems with its QNX operating system, and it’s now layering on a SaaS-like business with IVY, a cloud-based vehicle data platform co-developed with AWS.

IVY allows automakers to process, analyze, and monetize vehicle sensor data in real time. This is exactly the kind of AI-adjacent, cloud-powered software business that should be trading at 10x revenue, yet the market assigns it zero value.

That will not last much longer.

• QNX is embedded in 255M+ vehicles and continues to expand at 20M+ per year.

• IVY has secured early adopters, including Foxconn’s MIH EV platform, Dongfeng, and Mitsubishi Electric.

• The cybersecurity division, generating $350M–$365M annually, is now stabilized and profitable.

Every other infrastructure software business with this kind of positioning has already been re-rated higher—this one just hasn’t caught up yet.

The Trade: BlackBerry Gets Re-Rated in the Next 2–3 Quarters—Possibly as Soon as Earnings April 2nd

QNX is growing, IVY is ramping up, and cybersecurity has stabilized, yet the stock price still reflects none of this.

• If BlackBerry provides strong IVY guidance next earnings, the re-rating could start immediately.

• Even without IVY, QNX’s backlog alone justifies a higher multiple.

• Cybersecurity, previously a drag on performance, is now quietly generating cash.

This setup provides a margin of safety with significant upside.

Even if IVY takes time to scale, QNX alone is worth more than what the market is assigning to BlackBerry today.

If the market re-rates BlackBerry as an infrastructure software business, it trades at $12–$18 in the next 2–3 quarters. That does not include IVY guidance or it's potential impact on price, which could drive the stock much higher.

QNX: The Operating System Running Inside 255M+ Vehicles

QNX is not an infotainment OS—it’s the real-time, safety-critical software running inside automotive systems.

• Installed in 255M+ vehicles, growing by 20M+ per year

• $815M backlog (+27% YoY) ensures forward revenue visibility

• Trusted by nearly every major automaker, including BMW, Toyota, Ford, GM, Volkswagen, Honda, Stellantis, Bosch, Continental, Magna, and Denso

QNX is embedded in ADAS, digital instrument clusters, telematics, and secure gateways—systems where failure is not an option. Automakers don’t replace this kind of software lightly, which is why QNX enjoys high retention and a long revenue tail.

As vehicles become more software-driven, QNX’s role is only growing.

• Software-Defined Vehicles (SDVs) require real-time OS solutions that QNX already dominates

• QNX Hypervisor enables multiple systems to run securely on a single chip, increasing its value per vehicle

• EVs and autonomous systems require low-latency, high-reliability computing—exactly what QNX provides

If QNX were valued like a strategic AI-driven infrastructure software provider, it would not be trading at 5x revenue.

A more appropriate 8–10x multiple puts QNX’s valuation at $2.5B–$3.5B alone.

Right now, the market is treating QNX like a legacy asset when it’s actually growing and gaining importance.

IVY: The Unpriced SaaS Upside That Could Change the Entire Valuation

BlackBerry IVY is a co-developed vehicle data platform with AWS that allows automakers to process, analyze, and monetize in-car data.

• Foxconn’s MIH EV platform, Dongfeng Motors, and Mitsubishi Electric have already signed on

• IVY enables software-driven revenue streams for automakers (subscriptions, upgrades, real-time analytics)

• BlackBerry captures recurring revenue from these services

Right now, the market assigns IVY zero value because revenue has not yet scaled.

But automakers are moving toward Tesla-style in-car software features, usage-based pricing, and over-the-air upgrades.

If IVY becomes the data layer that enables this shift, BlackBerry’s valuation moves toward SaaS multiples instead of just embedded software.

And we will know a lot more by next earnings.

Cybersecurity: No Longer a Drag, Now a Cash Generator

For years, BlackBerry’s cybersecurity business was bloated and uncompetitive.

• Then management sold off Cylance, cut unnecessary costs, and focused on high-trust, high-retention government and enterprise contracts.

• Cybersecurity now generates $350M–$365M annually with a $280M ARR & Margins have improved to 65%

• Trusted by NATO, Fortune 500s, and government agencies

This is not a high-growth business, but it is a stable, profitable enterprise software business that the market is ignoring.

Even at a conservative 2–4x revenue multiple, cybersecurity alone could be worth $700M–$1.2B.

Right now, the market is treating this business as worthless, which makes no sense.

Market Mispricing: How Big Is the Upside?

BlackBerry is currently trading at ~5x sales, significantly below comparable infrastructure software businesses.

If the market re-rates BlackBerry as a legitimate infrastructure software provider, the stock is an easy double from here.

A reasonable valuation based on its components:

• QNX at 8–10x revenue → $2.5B–$3.5B

• Cybersecurity at 2–4x revenue → $700M–$1.2B

• IVY is completely unpriced—if it scales, it could be worth billions

This pushes BlackBerry’s fair value toward $12–$18 in the next 2–3 quarters on the low end, $20+ on the high end if IVY scales.

If IVY guidance is strong next earnings, that re-rating could start immediately.

Final Thought: The Market Is About to Wake Up

This is not a meme stock revival.

It is an AI-adjacent, embedded infrastructure software business that has somehow escaped the AI stock rally.

That will not last much longer.

• QNX should not be trading like a no-growth legacy product

• IVY is being assigned zero value, despite real partnerships and revenue potential

• Cybersecurity is now a stable asset, not a liability

This stock is one strong IVY earnings guide away from a re-rating to juicy SAAS multiples. BlackBerry is almost certainly about to be priced like a great software company instead of a clown show. When that happens, it’s not trading anywhere near $5.69 anymore.

_______________________________________________________________

I’ve put together the above analysis of BlackBerry. I work on these memos for my own personal investments and want to start sharing them. Thought you degens might like them.

I'm going to be posting diligence on reddit regularly, but only on r/wallstreetbets for positions in my personal book. Follow me on directly if you want to read more.

TLDR: My analysis indicates BlackBerry is a high-margin software business that the market doesn't believe could operate a coffee cart at an airport. Their IOT businesses includes the dominant OS for automotive software and an emerging SaaS platform co-developed with AWS both of which should command high multiples. The stock trades at a massive discount to comparable AI-adjacent infrastructure software businesses. In a base case, the stock should trade at $12–$18 in the next 2–3 quarters and if IOT guidance is strong next earnings it can pop to 20+.

Blackberry has re-invented its self many years ago and is no longer a phone company. This is for the better and it is now a mobile technology security company of some merit. BB is into any remote tech that could be hacked such as cars or any network linked device. Blackberry are gaining traction with full stack approach.

2.24b market cap provides a target to a great number of companies that would value from this technology.

This is a growing market that will tie to the AI/robotics future and the pay to borrow not own future.

I personally think it is one of the more interesting companies in the tech space currently.

I see also progression of tech M&A after a bit of a recent slowdown.

List of companies that could acquire Plantir Microsoft IBM Google HP/Juniper Palo Alto Ford

Daft - IONQ or any other greatly appreciated looking for targets to justify price/survive

Good day to you all. This is my first post here. I have been lurking for over a year trying to learn the basic principles of the market and have learned a lot from the people kind enough to share their wisdom here.

I raise this post to talk about Blackberry, the previously failed phone company which has since moved into cyber security and EV software.

I have my own thoughts on it but I do not want this to seem like an attempt at a pump (or dump) so I will just say that I am curious about their potential but equally skeptical on their future.

I am trying to initiate a discussion to draw on the vast wealth of knowledge so often shown here to see what peoples assessment of BB actually is and why.

The reason for this is I don’t think I have ever seen it discussed on here and I would be interested to see peoples take on it.

I have done my own DD (or at least what I hope is DD) and would describe myself as neutral. I am looking for further opinions to supplement my own

Thank you in advance and I hope this proves not to be a waste of everyone’s time

Edit: I will say what I have discovered about them as people are starting to ask in the comments. Forgive me primitive DD I am still a bit of a noob.

I am interested in their future due to the predicted emergence and growth of smart cities. A lot of their technology and software is catered towards smart cities which I think will likely be adopted by most major advanced civilisations within the next 5-10 years. In terms of profit, they are only just becoming profitable according to their balance sheet but their revenue does appear to be going in the right direction albeit at a painful pace and their debt has started to reduce.

They have already secured multiple government contracts in reputation to cyber security and are starting to have their software installed in certain EV’s.

John Chen by most accounts is a poor CEO and I think the company could do with fresh leadership. But I do think they have future potential 5-10 years from now

Is there any truth that from Goldeneye to No Time To Die, Barbara and Micheal would trade off taking the reins from each movie? Would make sense as to why the tone would jump back and forth.

I've monitored BB's performance for quite a while now. The company is making good changes, e.g. separation of business units (dividing IoT and Cybersecurity divisions into seperate entities, cost reduction, improving machine learning cybersecurity firm that they acquired...etc.

The stock average target is around 3.2 USD and we're at 2.91 as of right now (11.97% up today).

Earnings are coming up on Dec 19th and the company is predicted to be back into the profit margin!

I have these option positions opened now, so far 80% profit!
BB $3 Call 12/13 750 Buy
BB $2.5 Call 12/13 - 1 Buy

Was reading this link and tempted to put some cash down? Do you think this is a good option?

https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/news/241032/after-earnings-is-blackberry-stock-a-buy-sell-or-fairly-valued.aspx

What are your thoughts on recent BlackBerry stock rise? Up 167% since 6 months? Is it worth to buy some shares and hold long term or will it crash again? Still a meme stock or are they cooking up some good tech?

Should’ve held my original position in $MU calls instead.

Ported the rest of my $7k salvaged (sold contracts for .25 instead of .30 in picture) back into $MU calls after I screenshotted this.

GG