The calculation of the Buffett Indicator involves dividing the total market value of all publicly-traded stocks within a country by the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). By comparing the stock market's size to the overall economic output, ...

July 15, 2025 - Bloody hell: The Buffett Indicator (US Total Market Cap / GDP) hits ~220%, meaning the stock market is valued at more than 2.17x the size of the US economy

October 31, 2025 - Once hailed by its namesake investor as “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand,” that indicator just hit an alarm-ringing 225% — its highest level on record, adding to the growing chorus of market commentators who think we might be in for a correction. ... Alongside the Buffett Indicator, other metrics are flashing amber or red, too.

October 22, 2025 - The “Buffett Indicator” just hit new highs. As of June 30, total U.S. stock market cap is 204% of GDP, higher than the dot-com bubble and the 2021 peak. That’s also 52% above its long-term trendline.

August 16, 2025 - The Buffett Indicator just hit 210%, its highest level in history. That means U.S. stocks are worth more than twice the size of the U.S.

The Buffett Indicator is currently 76.62% higher than its historical average, signifying that the stock market is Strongly Overvalued.

April 7, 2021 - to be mixed. Overall, there is some significant negative relationship between a country’s Buffett · Indicator and the next year’s stock market return.

The ratio Warren Buffett uses for ... product of the country. Moreover, GuruFocus introduces a new indicator, TMC/(GDP + Total Assets of Fed), which acts similarly but gives an additional edition of market valuati...

December 21, 2023 - The Buffett Indicator is flashing red and has been for a while now, so caution is the watchword, Dhruv Goyal, CFA, writes.

April 12, 2024 - The first six months represented the worst such period in more than 50 years.1 The S&P 500 fell more than 20% during that period.2 Inflation, rising interest rates, geopolitical instability and other factors have also impacted the market. Given those declines, stocks are more attractive on a relative basis compared to their highs in 2021. But in absolute terms? Not so fast. One metric that has proven reliable as a high-level benchmark of overall market valuation is the Buffett Indicator.

During periods of economic growth, the ratio tends to be higher, while during recessions, the ratio tends to be lower. For example, the Buffett Indicator reached an all-time high of 148% in early 2021, which some experts have interpreted as a sign that the stock market is overvalued.

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November 6, 2025 - It measures the proportion of euphoric stocks within a universe of US equities that have liquid options, currently around 11%, compared with its long-term average of 7.1%. The gauge peaked above 10% during the dot-com era of the late 1990s and ...

July 25, 2025 - “The indicator now sits at its highest level on record outside of 1998–2001 and 2020–2021, although it remains well below the highs reached in those episodes,” they said.

February 17, 2021 - This ratio, now commonly known as the Buffett Indicator, compares the size of the stock market to that of the economy. A high ratio indicates an overvalued market—and as of February 11, 2021, the ratio has reached all-time highs, indicating ...

September 13, 2025 - Economic Indicator: The ratio also provides a broad measure of economic health. Significant deviations between market capitalization and GDP can reflect shifts in investor sentiment or economic conditions, offering a macroeconomic perspective. Historical Comparison: By comparing the current Buffett Indicator ratio with historical data, investors can identify long-term market trends and assess whether current valuations are in line with historical norms.

June 30, 2025 - It is widely followed by the financial media as a valuation measure for the US market in both its absolute, and de-trended forms. The indicator set an all-time high during the so-called "everything bubble", crossing the 200% level in February 2021; a level that Buffett warned if crossed, was ...

February 12, 2021 - Indicator highlights ‘remarkable mania’ in markets: O’Rourke · Warren BuffettPhotographer: Christopher Goodney/Bloomberg · Gift this article · Contact us: Provide news feedback or report an error · Confidential tip? Send a tip to our reporters · Site feedback: Take our Survey · By Michael P. Regan, Vildana Hajric, and Claire Ballentine · February 12, 2021 at 9:04 PM UTC ·

2 weeks ago - The ratio of market capitalization to GDP is also known as the Buffet Indicator. In a Forbes interview in December 2001, Warren Buffett said that the ratio is a useful tool for gauging the overall valuation of the stock market, where a range ...

December 2, 2025 - Buffett can see the value in the opportunity. Berkshire Hathaway has trimmed many of its key portfolio positions as it raises cash, but it has added to its Sirius XM stake a couple of times since the summer of last year.