Everyone is focused on Caracas right now, but I can’t stop thinking about the precedent this sets. If Beijing decides this is their green light to finally move on Taiwan, we aren’t looking at a chip shortage.

People seem to forget the silicon shield failsafes. ASML has remote kill switches for their machines, and Taiwan has practically confirmed they would scorch-earth the TSMC foundries before letting the PLA take them intact.

If that happens, 90% of advanced chips don't just get expensive, they vanish. Overnight.

We’re talking about a total freeze on everything from new iPhones to Nvidia AI chips for at least 2-3 years while the US tries to spin up domestic fabs.

Will the market even price this in? Feels like we are one bad decision away from the tech stone age.

This question is brought on because right now there are discussions in different subreddits over fear that China will invade Taiwan over the US's invasion of Venezuela and how it might set a precedent for a China invasion.

Personally I think a lot of this is projection.

Much like how when Russia invaded Ukraine and people believed China will invade Taiwan as well but except that didnt happen.

Every time there is some bloody invasion happening somewhere in the world, the magnifying glass is projected onto this side of the world with the question of whether "China is going to the same?".

My take? I don't think the Chinese will follow the US example anytime soon.

What's your opinion? Or take?

I think this question is on a lot of people's minds and there's even been a slew of--IMO misguided and unfair--criticism of China in the wake of current events. I think this video helps to provide some perspective.

A Foreign Ministry spokesperson said China strongly condemns the US action.

Link to economist article: https://archive.ph/aSu7F

“The more interesting question is what Mr Maduro’s capture means for China’s standing with its partners around the world.”

I’ve heard a lot of people saying that with Trump taking Maduro and “invading” Venezuela it will embolden China to attack Taiwan but I feel that this move (while not smart or legal by any means) will put some fear into China because it shows that the U.S. will behave erratically with a huge show of force. The Venezuela situation is not a full scale war or invasion and it’s unlike Iraq or Afghanistan because they got the guy in a matter of hours. It shows the world that Trump is insane enough to do something (whatever TF the rationale maybe).

I’m not American and I hate Trump but I actually think that him acting like a madman will cause the other madmen to hesitate. If Trump’s willing to do that to Venezuela then what’s stopping him from saying “You know what? Actually Taiwan is ours now!” Then what happens?

I think this whole situation would have China shitting its pants.

Edit: Am I getting spam downvoted by CCP bots or something? My upvotes suddenly crashed lol

Chinese Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning, in response to this question Saturday,

Q: It’s reported that on January 3, the U.S. sent forces to seize Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife and took them out of the country. The governments of multiple countries have voiced opposition. What’s China’s comment?

Had this strongly worded response,

A: China expresses grave concern over the U.S. forcibly seizing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife and taking them out of the country. The U.S.’s move is in clear violation of international law, basic norms in international relations, and the purposes and principles of the UN Charter. China calls on the U.S. to ensure the personal safety of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, release them at once, stop toppling the government of Venezuela, and resolve issues through dialogue and negotiation.

The takeaway from this, is that China has gone above calling for cooler heads, or simply condemning the US, and has demanded a release of Maduro. While it is the opinion of papers like Al-Jazeera ( https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/4/china-urges-us-to-stop-toppling-venezuelan-government-release-maduro ) that this will not continue into "hard power", a demand in a political context like this is worth the consequences for noncompliance, which in turn implies the existence of said consequences.

Especially considering the country's prior response to the 1989 capture of Noriega, what is going to prevent China from taking action similar to the US' in Taiwan in response to what the US has done in Venezuela, as an available form of retaliation?

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/4/china-urges-us-to-stop-toppling-venezuelan-government-release-maduro

It’s a tough situation, no doubt about that. However, I don’t think sitting by the sidelines is a right decision given that Western powers will intervene politically in support of Guaido, who was essentially voted in by the U.S. But at the same time, is Maduro a lost cause? The Venezuelan government owes China more than $20 billion in addition to the recent loan Maduro acquired during his last visit to Beijing. Guaido, his opponent has even offered to talk about paying back. But changing support to Guaido will probably look bad. What do you guys think?

A possibility: Perhaps China should write off a portion of Venezuela’s debt. Nothing demonstrates loyalty better than to support your friend in his time of need. This may even encourage Maduro to formally adopt Yuan as Venezuela’s national currency since the bolivar has inflated out of control.

Since China is buying Venezuelan oil, in exchange for weapons to support Maduro’s government, do you consider Venezuela to be a colony/puppet government of China?

https://youtu.be/a-gXvOjvMhE