seasoned investors don't analyze numbers. they set and forget. More on reddit.com

TLDR Ticker: SPY (and others) Direction: Down Prognosis: Bear market incoming; buy puts on overvalued stocks like TSLA and PLTR. Consider inverting your inverse. Gay Bear Warning Level: Extremely High (Multiple valuation models and recession indicators flashing red) Bonus: Author is considering further inversions, so proceed with caution (or profit accordingly) More on reddit.com

I retired February 2022. Straight into a 20% dip. Luckily I had a buffer, but it's rough to watch happen. A 3 year buffer is a solid hedge, but it will likely feel uneasy for a number of years. You kind of have to just make the leap, there's no 100% guarantee, so it's always a gamble.

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Reddit's valuation changed for a variety of reasons, most notably, venture capital cash dried up, interest rates increased, and wall street has begun turning its back on tech companies that operate at a loss. Another thing that changed is the viable methods for tech companies to increase their profits. The only viable strategy (read: the only one that big companies are running with) is some subscription model. Reddit in particular would have a hard time swinging that for a few reasons: The vast majority of redditors lurk without any engagement other than voting. A subscription to lurk is a hard sell for anyone. Twitter was able to do that because twitter, for a lot of people, is a news feed. For reddit, most users are here for entertainment: memes, videos, ect. Reddit has not found an effective way to integrate ads. Reddit's user base is far more advertiser hostile than any other platform, and I'd bet anything reddit has the largest user base with ad blockers installed. On mobile, ads are very obvious and not as frequent as they are on say twitter or facebook. This rules out the ability for reddit to offer a compelling "ad free" subscription model. One of Reddit's most valuable assets is the repository of indexed information it has. Most people discover reddit when searching for something unrelated to the site itself and upon discovering the result on reddit, they click around and stick around. This makes restricting access like Twitter a non-starter as well. For brands, Reddit is not a viable platform to play ball in with so many brand-related subreddits being community run. I can't think of any subreddit where replacing the original moderators with the brand-operated moderators would go over well. For users, reddit HATES redditors, especially redditors from other areas on any given ideological axis. Even r/place , something that should be a "bring everyone together" event, just creates a shit load of drama that annoys everyone else on the site until its over. For reddit's stats, their well has been poisoned for some time. Reddit has a huge bot problem. This works in reddits favor at times (boosting their numbers) but it also really hurts at times (reducing the ratio of users:ads served to users). Reddit can remove bots and I'm sure they can identify a vast majority of them, but just like a tumor, sometimes the removal is just as dangerous as the tumor itself. Reddit is stuck-- they are valuable, they have valuable assets, but they're not making money and their users are incredibly hostile/resistant to change. Reddit is out of it's age of discovery as well-- there are not as many people "discovering" reddit as a platform for the first time as there was just 3 years ago, meaning they've already soaked up most of the users available to them. Reddit tries rolling out new features, but its hard to justify dev time/cost and operational costs associated with experiments when your mainline product is not succeeding in generating revenue. Reddit is not able to "play" with its users and its users are committed (justified or otherwise) to not trusting reddit. These are the issues effecting reddit's valuation. It's not the front page or the organization of the communities. Its not the monetization either (in fact, that's their solution-- how do you incentivize people to post high quality content? By letting them earn money from high quality content). I do not think they are panicking either. Why would they be? IPOing is the end goal, but its not the only method of survival. Reddit's best course of action is to slowly improve its asset (community + content) and its conduit for ads without losing users. I don't think Reddit is losing users in any meaningful way relative to its competitors. They're playing the long con, and their success in that long con is not yet determined. In my opinion, obviously. More on reddit.com