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Fidelity Investments
researchtools.fidelity.com › ftgw › mloptions › goto › probCalc
Probability Calculator - Log in - Fidelity Investments
Research > Content and data provided by various third parties and Fidelity Investments –Terms of Use. Opens in a new window. ... Log in to analyze how future price movements in an underlying position will impact option strategies. Calculate the probability of future price movements for an underlying security.
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Fidelity
fidelity.com › learning-center › tools-demos › research-tools › probability-calculator-video
Using Fidelity's Probability Calculator - Fidelity
With Fidelity's Probability Calculator, you can analyze the likelihood of the underlying trading at or between your price targets by a specified date based on historical volatility.
Published   December 20, 2016
Discussions

Fidelity Probability Calculator Unreliable
I'm not sure how covered calls on INTC would have been exercised given its recent movement but as a basic rule of thumb, 1 standard deviations covers a range of 68.3%, 2 SDs covers 95.4% and 3SDs covers 99.7%. So for calls, setting a strike price at 16 delta, 2.3 delta and 0.15 will give you a good estimate of the 1, 2 and 3 SD strikes. Right now for an October call with INTC at 33.5 those strikes would be 43, 60, and there is no strike for a 3 SD move. Personally I never figured out how to use the probability calculator on Fidelity either so I just calculate it on my own. More on reddit.com
🌐 r/fidelityinvestments
6
0
July 11, 2024
Probability OTM for options?
Thanks for reaching out to us, u/arrangemethod , and welcome to our sub! At this time, you are unable to add "Probability OTM" as a column on our options chain. We appreciate the feedback regarding this and I have passed along your comments to the appropriate team for review. In the meantime, we have a Probability Calculator feature that you can access in Active Trader Pro (ATP). Login to ATP and follow the steps below to pull it up. Select the "Options" tab Click "Probability Calculator" in the drop-down menu Enter in the desired symbol and press "Enter" Probability analysis in Active Trader Pro Let us know if you have any additional questions regarding this. More on reddit.com
🌐 r/fidelityinvestments
7
2
April 13, 2023
Probability calculator - percentage
Thanks for coming back by the sub this evening, u/Gereldy . I'd be happy to provide clarity on this. It sounds like you may be referring to the Historical Volatility (HV) percentage in regard to the Options Probability Calculator. When using the Probability Calculator, you can adjust the volatility assumption by clicking the "HV Volatility" drop-down, and selecting a time frame. This will then populate the corresponding percentage for that time frame. Please note that the percentage box is clickable because you are able to enter in you own custom HV percentage, and you can also select the HV for 30 days, 60 days 90 days, or 180 days. I'll provide a help resource on historical volatility from our Fidelity Learn Library below. Historical Volatility If this doesn't quite fit the bill for your particular situation, feel free to keep us in the loop as to what's going on. We appreciate you engaging with us today. Please let us know if there is anything else we can clarify or assist with. See you around! Options trading entails significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Certain complex options strategies carry additional risk. Before trading options, please read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options . Supporting documentation for any claims, if applicable, will be furnished upon request. More on reddit.com
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1
0
December 22, 2024
Fidelity probability calculator

So $300+…..got it. 😈

More on reddit.com
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12
24
August 24, 2021
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Fidelity
fidelity.com › learning-center › tools-demos › active-trader-pro-platforms › probability-calculator-atp-video
Using Fidelity Trader+ | Fidelity
Get the most out of Fidelity's trading platforms. Whether you want to trade more efficiently or use advanced charting features, here's what you need to know.
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Fidelity Investments
researchtools.fidelity.com › ftgw › mloptions › goto › probCalc
Probability Calculator: Fidelity Investments
Research > Content and data provided by various third parties and Fidelity Investments –Terms of Use. Opens in a new window. ... Log in to analyze how future price movements in an underlying position will impact option strategies. Calculate the probability of future price movements for an underlying security.
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Fidelity Investments
researchtools.fidelity.com › ftgw › mloptions › goto › plCalculator
P/L Calculator - Log in - Fidelity Investments
Research > Content and data provided by various third parties and Fidelity Investments –Terms of Use. Opens in a new window. ... Log in to calculate profit/loss potential for single- and multi-leg option strategies.
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Fidelity
fidelity.com › products › atbt › help › ActiveTraderTools_Option_Analytics_Help.html
Options Analytics
The Probability Calculator is a research tool provided to help self-directed investors model various option strategies. The criteria and inputs entered are at the sole discretion of the user and are solely for the convenience of the user. The Probability Calculator is provided by LiquidPoint, ...
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Reddit
reddit.com › r/fidelityinvestments › fidelity probability calculator unreliable
r/fidelityinvestments on Reddit: Fidelity Probability Calculator Unreliable
July 11, 2024 -

All,

Is there a better options probability calculator out there, or in-depth training on the Fidelity tool? The Fidelity tool has been inaccurate based on my input several times, causing a loss of $. I sold a covered call option on INTC with a 6% probability of being in the money on the expiration date, according to the online calculator with Fidelity. INTC went in the money within 10 days of selling the CC and stayed in the money. I lost money and my shares of INTC. I used the 3 Standards Deviation, and there were no earnings calls or dividends coming up. I am aware of the risks involved. I am just looking for a better probability calculator. Thank you.

Top answer
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I'm not sure how covered calls on INTC would have been exercised given its recent movement but as a basic rule of thumb, 1 standard deviations covers a range of 68.3%, 2 SDs covers 95.4% and 3SDs covers 99.7%. So for calls, setting a strike price at 16 delta, 2.3 delta and 0.15 will give you a good estimate of the 1, 2 and 3 SD strikes. Right now for an October call with INTC at 33.5 those strikes would be 43, 60, and there is no strike for a 3 SD move. Personally I never figured out how to use the probability calculator on Fidelity either so I just calculate it on my own.
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Hi, u/BackgroundNote9784 . We appreciate you joining the sub and taking the time to share your experience with the Options Probability Calculator. We do offer coaching sessions with our Trading Strategy Desk to help you dive deeper into Fidelity tools, including the Probability Calculator. You can learn more and sign up for specific sessions using the link below. Coaching sessions with the Trading Strategy Desk I have also shared your post as feedback with the appropriate teams so they can review your comments about the Probability Calculator. We take your feedback seriously and are always striving to enhance the overall client experience. Please let us know if you have additional feedback that we can pass along on your behalf, or if you have any questions for us. Options trading entails significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Certain complex options strategies carry additional risk. Before trading options, please read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options . Supporting documentation for any claims, if applicable, will be furnished upon request.
Find elsewhere
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Fidelity Investments
researchtools.fidelity.com › ftgw › mloptions › goto › probCalc
Probability Calculator - nvidia - Log in - Fidelity Investments
Research > Content and data provided by various third parties and Fidelity Investments –Terms of Use. Opens in a new window. ... Log in to analyze how future price movements in an underlying position will impact option strategies. Calculate the probability of future price movements for an underlying security.
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Fidelity
fidelity.com › viewpoints › active-investor › hitting-the-right-strike-price
Hitting the right strike price | Fidelity
You can access this tool by going to the options research page on Fidelity.com, selecting the Quotes and Tools tab, and then entering a ticker symbol of your choosing (e.g., AMZN for Amazon).
Published   March 17, 2026
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Reddit
reddit.com › r/fidelityinvestments › probability calculator - percentage
r/fidelityinvestments on Reddit: Probability calculator - percentage
December 22, 2024 -

Can someone explain the probability calculator’s percentage input field? It seems to be tied to HV. Neither the video nor the PDF describe this or its use directly.

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Reddit
reddit.com › r/sprt › fidelity probability calculator
r/SPRT on Reddit: Fidelity probability calculator
August 24, 2021 - The implied volatility of a stock and the amount of each option that is being bought for it can be used to show the chance of a stock hitting a certain price. The graph shows 3 standard deviations of probability which means that 99.7% of all ...
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Fidelity Investments
researchtools.fidelity.com › ftgw › mloptions › goto › optionChain
Option Chain: Fidelity Investments
Trading Ideas Fidelity Learning Center | Coaching Sessions · Option Chain · Key Statistics · Option Quote & Chart · Probability Calculator · Market Commentary · Log in to find and filter single- and multi-leg options through our comprehensive option chain.
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Fidelity
fidelity.com › options-trading › tools
Options Trading Tools | Fidelity
Take advantage of our powerful tools to identify options opportunities, execute strategies, and manage risk.
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Fidelity
fidelity.com › learning-center › investment-products › options › 7-common-options-mistakes
7 common options trading mistakes - Fidelity
It is important to note that probability has no directional bias. It is simply the statistical chance of price being at a particular level on the evaluation date, given the current factors. You can use Fidelity's Probability Calculator (provided by Hanweck Associates) to help make this determination.
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X
x.com › 741trey › status › 1801327005511692782
M.B. on X: "FIDELITY OPTIONS PROBABILITY CALCULATOR 🤣 https://t.co/jFF2byYX0U" / X
FIDELITY OPTIONS PROBABILITY CALCULATOR · 2:53 PM · Jun 13, 2024 · · · 107.9K Views · 23 · 117 · 964 · 58 · Read 23 replies · Sign up now to get your own personalized timeline! Sign up with GoogleSign up with Google. Opens in new tab · Sign up with Apple ·
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Fidelity
fidelity.com › learning-center › tools-demos › research-tools › using-profit-and-loss-calculator-video
Using Fidelity's Profit and Loss Calculator - Fidelity
Fidelity offers a Profit and Loss Calculator that allows you easily chart the profit and loss potential of your trades before you place them, or to evaluate existing positions. Learn more about how to get started.
Published   October 16, 2017
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Optionstrategist
optionstrategist.com › calculators › probability
Free Probability Calculator | Option Strategist
Calculate stock market probabilities with this easy-to-use tool. For deeper analysis using Monte Carlo simulation, check out McMillan's Probability Calculator Software · Sign up for The Weekly Updater to receive comprehensive stock market insight each Friday for FREE