Please do not make other threads on this topic.

Much of these things are rumors at this point so be careful of what you take at face value.

Amazon:

The email to recruiters announced that the company was halting hiring for all corporate roles, including technology positions, globally in its Amazon stores business, which covers the company’s retail and operations, and accounts for the bulk of Amazon’s sales.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/04/technology/amazon-freezes-corporate-hiring.html

Facebook:

This week, [Zuckerberg] told his employees that the company would freeze hiring and reduce budgets across most teams at Meta, leading to layoffs in parts of the company that have previously seen unchecked growth.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/29/technology/meta-hiring-freeze.html

Daily Chat Thread

I will be graduating this Fall 2022 and I do not have any prior internships. I am applying for jobs now.

My friend, who is currently a part time intern and will be graduating this Spring 2023, is saying that the hiring freeze is really bad and companies are not hiring.

I am aware that the competition is tough right now but how bad is it? How should I be prepared?

Edit: I am looking for jobs across US but prefer in Dallas because family lives there.

I wanna start by saying I'm informed on the hiring freeze, but not knowledgeable about it. I'm going to be a college freshman soon and will graduate in three years.

Hearing people talk about the hiring freeze is kind of nerve wracking. So I wanted to know if the hiring freeze is really that bad and if it would affect my chances of getting an internship in college, as well as my chances of getting a job when I graduate?

Is the freeze just caused by the recession? Or are there other factors? Should I be worried?

I hear that it is due to recession. But what is causing this recession? In 2008 it happened due to subprime crisis. So what is the root cause this time?

Will we ever see the hiring freeze end and see more self taught developers/bootcamp grads have an easier time landing a job within the software engineering field? Which specific field is currently the most difficult to land a job in and which is the least?

I’ve been applying to jobs left and right. I apply online I go in person to introduce myself and they tell me they’re not hiring.

This happened to me a few times already. I go online and I see all of these jobs are hiring but then they never called back. Is there a hiring freeze going on right now?

When our jobs going to start hiring people? I have a college degree in education. I’m currently a substitute teacher but I only make nine dollars. I’m willing to work at a movie theater or a restaurant or an education but nowhere will actually hire me.

So with the recent hiring freeze, does anyone else feel like they should steer away from federal jobs? I mean one of the reasons I keep applying for federal jobs is the “job security”. Just curious.

It feels like we've been waiting forever for these tech companies to stop the layoffs and for a decent market to return. Do you think things will stop being so terrible in 2024?

BLUF: If past behavior is a predictor for the future, we're probably looking at a year-long hiring freeze and another year plus for the registers to stabilize to historical rates for A-100 offers.

I've been reluctant to do a follow-up Tea Leaves post, but I’ve gotten several requests for some sort of analysis on how the Trump admin might impact FS hiring and what are some good strategies and tips to prepare for that period of time. My goal with this post is to:

1. Remain within rule #6, to not get political. Please also keep your comments within rule #6.

2. Provide some data-driven analysis that may be helpful to illuminate what may happen. 

3. Offer some concrete strategies and helpful perspectives for the next four years. 

I’m also operating off these main assumptions (every analyst should own their assumptions) and these caveats. 

1. Past behavior is an indicator of future behavior. So we’re going to look at the 2017-2021 Shadow Register data and other historical data. 

2. I will not include speculation on Project 2025, America First Policy Institute, or Schedule F. Let’s be frank, there are too many variables and uncertainties with those. Let’s also not fear monger too much and keep a level head about all this. 

3. I will not get into morale, effectiveness, policies, etc. I simply want to focus on hiring. 

We’ll start from the macro level perspective, then move into the more granular.

Size of the FS

Overall the size of the FS did not change that much under Trump’s first term. The massive increases under Obama remained largely intact. Ironically, in the last 10 years we saw the largest decrease in the size of the FS under Obama (2014-2015), though that came after a massive hiring surge (2009-2011 brought in 500-700 officers each year), which many colleagues will now reference as the creation of the second pig in the python issue. 

Here are the numbers based on AFSA data (or you can be a nerd like me and download and keep these reports and update your personal excel sheet of the data you find). As numbers fluctuate through the year, I’ve taken only the December number of each year, though 2024 is only accurate through 9/30/2024. 

Tangent: the vivid expression “pig in the python” connotes how those new officers are “digested” into the system and although they become fewer, there is still a visible portion of officers with approximately the same number of years in the service. For those part of the “pig”, promotions take longer and are more competitive. The first pig in the python resulted from a 9/11 related hiring surge. 

If we look at the Trump years and only look at the net changes, they were as follows: 

The net size of the FS continued to decrease after Biden took office. In 2021, it fell 145 officers. Then it rebounded starting in 2022 by gaining 146 officers. However, unlike the Obama years, the State Department did not do a massive hiring surge and tried to avoid making a third pig in the python through a strategy of elevated hiring spread out longer (AFSA supported this decision to avoid another “down gut” digestion problems). 

Impact on Hiring?

To the best of my ability, let’s look at the data on the class sizes during the first Trump administration. I’m sorry specialists, from here on out, I have no data for you because the below data set comes from the shadow registers. 

A note on methodology: I totalled the number of invites reported on each SR for each class in this period, then multiplied that by 30% to account for unreported data. The data gets squishy because we don’t know how many are in the actual class and we often don’t know how many were fellows versus regular candidates. View these numbers as broad brush strokes rather than precise measures. 

The black numbers are classes with few, if any, Pickering and Rangel Fellows and the red numbers are classes with fellows.

Essentially what happened during the Trump administration was that the January 2017 class occurred like “normal” and the March 2017 class invitations went out before the inauguration (November 28, 2016 to be exact), so it also occurred like “normal.” The hiring freeze took effect on January 23rd, 2017 but it did not impact those who had already received invitations to join the federal government.

*correction: the govt. wide hiring freeze was lifted in April 2017, but for State it continued. It's unclear to me how much of a role Tillerson or Trump had in that decision to prolong the freeze for State.

In June 2017 the administration attempted to rescind offers to the Pickering and Rangel fellows and to cancel the Diplomacy Fellows program. The Pickering and Rangel fellows sued the administration and got the July and September classes reinstated, which actually brought in a handful of people off the registers.The diplomacy fellows program, however, essentially died. 

The hiring freeze effectively eliminated what would have been a January 2018 class, but was lifted for March 2018 class. After that, FSO hiring remained at similar, though slightly reduced rates than the 2016 hiring rates. We even saw some large classes in January and March 2020. Starting in 2022, we see the increase in hiring that has remained high for the last few years. 

So the takeaway here, from the data, is that the hiring freeze effectively eliminated non-fellow hiring for about one year. 

But How Did That Impact the Register?

During that one year “pause” in hiring, the FSOT and QEP continued like normal. People still took the OA, still got their clearances, and still ended up on the register. This created a rather large backlog of candidates and many candidates with great scores expired. On the Shadow Registers you can see a tab of expired candidacies and get an idea of those scores that didn’t make it during this time. I’m reluctant to do much data analysis on that because the data is sparse and there are too many extenuating circumstances to make an effective analysis (sometimes people with a 5.9 decide they no longer want the FS and want to expire). 

When classes resumed, we saw that the lowest score called was raised considerably for a time. It’s important to note that this varies by track significantly. For CON we started seeing 5.6s again in July 2018 (a quicker recovery), Mgmt saw 5.4s again Sept 2018, Econ recorded 5.6s in October 2018, then POL and PD saw 5.6s again in January 2019. 

So it took about another year after the freeze ended for the “scores called” to more or less stabilized back to their historic rates (CON, MGMT, and ECON historically have a lower average score called, whereas PD and POL historically require a higher score for an A-100 invitation).  

So What Can We Expect?

If past behavior is an indicator of future behavior, President-elect Trump may impose another hiring freeze until the administration can sort through things. If it’s like last time, it will last about a year. Though perhaps with a different Secretary of State, it may not last as long.

There are three key differences though that will likely prolong the time it will take for the registers to stabilize back to their historical “good score” rates. 

1. The Rangel and Pickering Fellowships have increased in size. Prior to 2020, the fellowships brought in 30 fellows each per year. In 2020 that was increased to 45 each and we started to see those effects in 2022 with fewer than normal PD and POL invitations as fellows skew toward those tracks (I have seen no compelling data or announcements that would indicate the fellows will be evened out across career tracks). 

2. LEPP is a five-year mandated program to bring in 35 people a year at the mid-level.

3. State has moved in the direction of a standard four times a year orientation that includes specialists and generalists in the same class (a welcome innovation that came due to COVID). You’ll notice there was a September and October 2018 class, but such doubling of classes is unlikely to happen again.

So with more of the A-100 slots pre-allocated for fellows and LEPP, we will likely see fewer invitations go out, and therefore the time to “stabilize” will take longer. Further, without the random back to back classes, we will not see large drops in the “lowest score called.”

Let’s Talk Potential Strategies

I often get asked “what should I do in my situation?” So here are some broad brush stroke strategies for you to consider. But please remember, I'm just another dude on the internet.

If you’ve been in clearances for a while or know you’re at the SRP and you have a good score, step on that gas pedal! Be the squeaky wheel and try to get through in time for an April invitation that is likely to come through before inauguration day. 

If you’re in clearances or about to pass the OA (see what I did there:), slow roll that thing! Let your clearances take time. Stop calling DS for an update. In fact you want your clearances to take a while so you can wait out the hiring freeze. Also, let your colleagues who have been in clearance for a while push through.

If you’re DNC on the register, consider coming off for a shot at a second or third round invite for January or a shot at the April class. 

If you’re DEF on the register, see what you can do about extending that until about September 2025 (or go for longer if you can). Keep in mind that when you come off DEF your package is re-sent to the SRP who checks if you need an update to your security or medical clearance or not. In the scenario you’ve been on DEF for a very long time, you may have to go through a short security clearance update check. Ultimately, if you can pause your clock, you might as well try and you can always come off DEF earlier than expected so there is no harm in trying to pause your clock.

If you’re on the register, start planning to retake the test. Do not rest on those laurels even if you have a 5.9. Play it safe, take it again. 

If you’re anywhere else in the test taking process, please plan to take it again. Please do not be deterred from taking the test because of an anticipated hiring freeze. To be blunt, your odds of passing are already low (repeated tests will make you a better candidate though) and even if you do pass, it will take you at least a year or two to get through the entire process, which will outlast the hiring freeze. 

Parting Words

Someone wiser than myself recently told me “don’t make the election about you. Take this time to help those around you.” So. Please be kind. If you voted red, be a friend to your blue colleagues and try to encourage them along and to not give up their dream of the FS, but don’t patronize them, listen to them. If you voted blue or purple, it’ll be okay. The FS will still be there and part of the job of the FS is to advocate for policies and administrations you disagree with. This is simply part of the job. Please keep applying. And please let your red colleagues try to empathize with you, don’t ascribe malice toward them. 

Also. PLEASE JOIN AND UPDATE YOUR SHADOW REGISTERS! All this analysis is only made possible by people contributing to that repository. Please go here to learn more. 

TL;DR: Things are going to slow, but not stop. Please don’t give up. Please keep taking the test. 

*edit: For a more accurate prediction of FS hiring during next administration, please consult r/PuppyChristmas who does crystal ball and tea leaf reading. I'm just a nerd, but they have the real magic powers.

**edit: Revised a line about Trump's probability for another hiring freeze, fixed a table that wasn't showing up, added a red # that was missing from the bar chart, and made some grammar fixes.

Meta Platforms Inc., the owner of Facebook and Instagram, said it will freeze hiring and restructure some teams in an effort to cut costs and shift priorities.

Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg announced the social networking company’s freeze during a weekly Q&A session with employees, according to a person in attendance. He added that the company would reduce budgets across most teams, even teams that are growing, and that individual teams will sort out how to handle headcount changes — whether that means not filling roles that employees depart, shifting people to other teams, or working to “manage out people who aren't succeeding,” according to remarks reviewed by Bloomberg.

“I had hoped the economy would have more clearly stabilized by now, but from what we're seeing it doesn't yet seem like it has, so we want to plan somewhat conservatively,” Zuckerberg said. A Meta spokesperson declined to comment.

Meta's further cost cuts and hiring freeze are its starkest admission that advertising revenue growth is slowing, amid mounting competition for users' attention. Meta said earlier this year that it was planning to slow hiring for some management roles, and had postponed handing out full-time jobs to summer interns.  The freeze was necessary because “we want to make sure we're not adding people to teams where we don't expect to have roles next year,” Zuckerberg explained.

Zuckerberg had warned in July that that Meta would “steadily reduce headcount growth,” and that “many teams are going to shrink so we can shift energy to other areas.” Priorities internally include Reels, Meta’s TikTok competitor, and Zuckerberg’s futuristic plan for the internet, known as the metaverse. Meta had more than 83,500 employees as of June 30, and added 5,700 new hires in the second quarter. Zuckerberg said the company would be “somewhat smaller” by the end of 2023.

“For the first 18 years of the company, we basically grew quickly basically every year, and then more recently our revenue has been flat to slightly down for the first time,” he told staff Thursday.

During its first-quarter earnings call, the company said annual expenses would be roughly $3 billion lower than initially projected, trimming an estimated range that had been as high as $95 billion.  In prior moves to reduce spending, a dual-camera watch the company was building to compete with the Apple Watch was shuttered.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-29/meta-announces-hiring-freeze-warns-employees-of-restructuring

Is anyone else companies currently on a hiring freeze? I’m currently working as a contractor with the opportunity to convert FT next month. I received an email from our VP that we are currently on a hiring freeze & to not extend any offers on any of our open roles. This is the first I’ve been through a hiring freeze as coming from agency previously. Has anyone dealt with this before working internal? I know in the tech market there has been a lot of lay offs so that is my biggest concern.

I literally dont get the panic of hiring freeze yet companies are still actively hiring. For example, uber has reported a hiring freeze yet has 1400 job openings on their career site

Has it ended or has it been extended?

I know it's a stupid question but want to make sure, the one started on January for 100 days.

I know it has been extended for months and I'm sure it got auto-extended in mid October due to the shutdown?

When is it expiring / up for renewal?

Does anybody have a crystal ball and willing to share any insights… shoot, a magic eight ball would suffice right now. When can we expect this freeze to lift… I feel like it won’t be until the mid terms.

I’m a term employee in DoD and we were told yesterday that our terms will only be renewed for FY26 even though my NTE is 2027. I know nobody knows but shit… this is frustrating. I love my job and am damn good at it. Right before the freeze I was working on moving over to a permanent position. This past year has been so hard, anxieties are through the roof and inflation/cost of living doesn’t help. Just looking for something, anything. Anyway, rant over.

We all know what the next steps are. panic

What happens if i am laid of? Obviously i look for another job but what can i do to secure myself if i were jobless for 6 months to a year.

I was planning to buy a condo in Hamilton(under 400k) by feb 23. Considering the looming recession should i rethink that?

I am an immigrant and only 2.5 years in the country with with savings that can survive me for a a year if I dont buy a place.

If i end up buying a place in would have 4 months backup and reduce how much i save by 50% because of the mortgage.

TLDR:

• Looming recession and risk of lay off should i consider buying my first home?

• how to keep yourself financially secure in case of job loss.