Looks like that H&S neckline on the Nifty 50/Sensex, that i'd mentioned earlier in my previous post, is abt to break.

India has been hit by a convergence of issues:

1.slow economic growth, 2. low salary growth, high taxes, 3.high interest rates, 4. higher than expected inflation in 2024,(especially food inflation) 5. weakening rupee (leading to FII panic) etc.

If that wasn't bad enough, Trump has come to power with immense market enthusiam..his promise for a,

1. 100% tariff on BRICs for De-Dollarisation,

2. removal of the minimum corporate tax of 15% in international profits of US companies,

3. removal on restrictions on AI research, means Alot of capital will exit global markets and head straight to the US. This has been seen in the recovery that US indices have made this past week.

This has been a trend in the past decade.

Since Oct 2007, the Sensex returned 320%, (210% when adjusted for rupee depreciation of -110% yikes ik.). While in that same time, the S&P was 248% and the Nasdaq was an insane 1000%. Indian markets still attracted capital, despite wing a riskier emerging economy, because of a hope of better retruns, through a government that was believed to be more capitalism friendly.

With AI now being the forefront of international capital inflows and speculation, and given the US's undisputed leadership in the field of AI, it's likely the Nasdaq and S&P will keep significantly outperforming the Indian and emerging markets.

Indian stocks will be in alot of pain, if some large economic turn around doesn't materialize..but i Dont see the government being decisive enough to bring in this change. Furthermore it's also clear that the new RBI governor is going to prioritize the national reseves over the rupee value..more weaking, more selling. More sitting out in 2025 to follow..in my personal opinion

Please asses your risks carefully. I'm a Long, Equity investor, i never short or mess with Derivatives, so this market is pretty useless to me.