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When a D/ST drops a 30-burger like the Seattle Seahawks did this week, it brings a smile to my face and a tear to my eye. They’ve been a team we’ve pushed people to add in this article all season. Obviously, being owned in 94% of leagues heading into the week excluded them from my writeup, but I hope some of you had them and it won you the week.
Week 13 gave us solid weeks from most of our recommendations:
Jacksonville (14 points)
San Francisco (11 points)
LA Chargers (8 points)
Tampa Bay (7 points)
Atlanta (OK, they sucked)
As Fantasy Points Editor-In-Chief Joe Dolan likes to say, “It’s nut-cutting time.” This is it. One week left in the fantasy regular season. It’s win-or-go-home scenarios for many of us. Others are looking to secure a bye and maybe a little prize money—no time to get cute.
The NFL has a passing game problem. In Week 13, eight teams had their leading receiver under 50 yards. That’s Army-Navy game-level madness. Conversely, we had 12 D/STs score at least seven fantasy points. We saw nine teams score in double-digits. Needless to say, it’s a good time to be in the fantasy defense business.
With so much at stake, I’m imploring you to use a waiver claim if you need a D/ST badly. Please don’t leave it to chance and hope you wake up to a great matchup falling into your lap. If you want to get ahead of the game and stash a team for the playoffs, now is the time. Do it today. Don’t wait until the guys who are asleep at the wheel wake up next week.
It’s a challenging week to find teams with ownership of ~50% this week because, as I mentioned, some managers are already stockpiling teams. Check your league’s waiver wire to see if these highly owned squads are available: Cleveland (75%), LA Rams (74%), and Houston (81%).
We’re going to stretch the ownership a tad this week. Don’t sue us.
TEAMS ON BYE IN WEEK 14: Carolina, New England, NY Giants, San Francisco
Drake’s Top 7 D/ST Targets for Week 14
Washington Commanders (WAS, 5%) @ MIN
Baltimore Ravens (BAL, 64%) vs PIT
Philadelphia Eagles (PHI, 64%) @ LAC
Tampa Bay Buccanneers (TB, 29%) vs NO
Miami Dolphins (MIA, 20%) @ NYJ
Minnesota VikingsDST (MIN, 33%) vs WAS
Tennessee Titans (TEN, 3%) @ CLE
Higher-owned Options
Cleveland Browns (CLE, 75%) vs TEN — If the Browns are available, it's a good spot because Cam Ward never stops taking sacks. There's no talent on this Titans offense to threaten a defense. Could shut them out and collect five sacks.
Houston Texans (HOU, 80%) @ KC — I don't necessarily love the idea of playing Houston against the Chiefs, but it wouldn't shock me if they played well. This is simply a reminder to check your wire for the Texans, who have the best playoff schedule in football for a D/ST, with games against Arizona, Las Vegas, and the LA Chargers.
Top Targets
Washington Commanders (WAS, 5%) @ MIN — It wouldn’t matter if J.J. McCarthy’s head were falling off; he’s starting over whatever that mess was in Week 13. McCarthy isn’t ready, but he'd better get ready. This is a sneaky good spot for streamers, and we could see sacks and turnovers by the bushel. Per Fantasy Points Data, McCarthy is third in the NFL with 24.4% of his dropbacks ending in a sack. That’s not good for him; it’s great for us. Washington isn’t great, but Dan Quinn has them playing hard. The only reason I’m recommending the Commanders is the quarterback matchup on the other side. I’m honestly not sure how the Vikings score. Aaron Jones has a bad shoulder. The receivers have a bad QB. It’s a SKOL lot of trouble in Minnesota these days.
Baltimore Ravens (BAL, 64%) vs PIT — The Steelers stink. This offense doesn’t have any talent. The quarterback is 100 years old and has a broken hand. The running backs are change-of-pace guys who don’t scare anyone. Their one receiver can’t beat anyone downfield. It’s a mess. Baltimore is coming off a four-turnover performance in a loss to the Bengals. If the Steelers run Mason Rudolph out there, it’s a fantasy festivus for Ravens owners. I like this play a lot.
Solid Plays
Philadelphia Eagles (PHI, 64%) @ LAC — Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert had a procedure on his hand Monday afternoon. His availability is uncertain. The Chargers' backup is Trey Lance. Philly could feast on Lance, who has played fewer than 400 snaps in his four-year NFL career. We know Lance can run a little bit, but he’s not the most accurate passer, and will play behind a Chargers line that has allowed the sixth most sacks on the year. Either way, the Birds front will have to step up and wreak havoc on a limited Herbert or deer in the headlights Lance. Philadelphia was gashed on the ground by the Bears on Black Friday. You’d better believe Jim Harbaugh is going to try to replicate that blueprint. Omarion Hampton could return for the Bolts as well. Adding Philly here allows you to play them next week at home against the Raiders as well.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB, 29%) vs NO — My guy Tyler Shough is who I thought he was. Someone who will take sacks (9 in his last two games) and throw picks (one in each of his last two games). The Saints, in their previous two outings, have given up 11 and 16 fantasy points. I’m feeling another 10+ point outing against the Bucs. Tampa’s blitz rate is fourth best (27.3%) of all defenses. This is a play against a bad offensive line and a rookie QB who will take sacks and throw into trouble.
Miami Dolphins (MIA, 20%) @ NYJ — Oh boy, a must-win week, and we get a defense facing the Jets. OK, I’m for it. Miami is playing well. Winners of three straight, this unit has scored at least nine fantasy points in all of those contests. Last week, Miami collected four sacks and a pair of turnovers against the Saints. Let’s give Tyrod Taylor credit, though. He’s protecting the football and isn’t taking an egregious amount of sacks. But this is the Jets. Nothing is happening on offense. If Miami can get out to a lead and force Taylor to drop back, we’re in business.
Going Deeper
Minnesota Vikings (MIN, 33%) vs WAS — We could get Jayden Daniels back for the Commanders, who showed signs of life on Sunday Night. Despite their offensive woes, the Vikings' defense is legit. This team is second in the league in tackles for loss. I’m not in love with this play as the Commanders' QBs get the ball out quickly. Per Fantasy Points Data, Jayden Daniels ranks tied for fifth among quarterbacks in time to throw (2.46 seconds). That will be challenged as the Vikings are tied for second among all defenses in pressure rate at 27.9%. It’s a play where you think a rusty Daniels will make mistakes or Marcus Mariota will be Marcus Mariota.
Tennessee Titans (TEN, 3%) @ CLE — Am I really giving out the Titans as a play with our seasons on the line? Well, yeah. It’s the Shedeur Sanders-led Browns in Cleveland. We could get weather, and we’re definitely going to get poor quarterback play. Sanders took three sacks last week, and the Browns lost a pair of fumbles. Per Fantasy Points Data, Sanders has been sacked on 8.5% of dropbacks. That’s top-8 in the league and not in a good way. The key here is they can’t score. We’re going to get 20+ Quinshon Judkins carries. Don’t watch this game on an empty stomach. It's a deep play. Maybe more for DFS, but I also like the Titans for the chance that Chimere Dike runs back a kick for a score.
DSTs Upcoming Playoff Schedules of Interest
Baltimore — @ CIN, NE, @ GB - Don’t love that.
Seattle — IND, LAR, @ CAR - Can stash them for a Week 17 potentially.
Atlanta — @ TB and @ ARI, then forget it vs LAR in Week 17.
Arizona — @ HOU, ATL, @ CIN - Not the worst if you’re desperate.
San Francisco — TEN, @ IND, CHI - Use them in Week 15, then move on.
Cincinnati — BAL, @ MIA, ARI - This is sneaky.
Houston — ARI, LV, @ LAC - best playoff schedule for league's best defense.
Tampa Bay — ATL, @ CAR @ MIA - OK, we’re interested.
Buffalo — @ NE, @ CLE, PHI - Only playable against Browns.
LA Rams — DET, @ SEA, @ ATL - Not ideal, but not the worst either.
Jacksonville — Some good matchups ahead: Week 13 @ TEN, then Week 15 vs NYJ.
Pittsburgh — MIA, @ DET, @ CLE - Potential team to carry for Weeks 15 and 17.
Philadelphia — LV, @ WAS, @ BUF - Who knows what Eagles team shows up?
New England — BUF, @ BAL, @ NYJ - The Pats are playing good football.
Kansas City — Week 15 vs LAC is now a prime spot. Then a semi-final showdown in Week 16 @ TEN.
New Orleans — CAR, NYJ, @ TEN - Not the greatest D/ST, but that’s a fantastic run out.
Dallas — MIN, LAC, @ WAS - We’ll definitely be talking about the Cowboys as streamers going forward.
The F6P Defense Stream-O-Matic is back, ready for Week 12.
Sorry it's late this week, the Cloudflare issues that caused outages delayed things for us.
Early week data has the Texans, Patriots and Ravens as the best three defenses for the week.
Who are you streaming this week?
Here is the Top 10 from the tool. Check out the rest on Fantasy Six Pack.
| SCORE | Team | Rost% | Start% | Opp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 182 | Seahawks | 80% | 67% | @ TEN |
| 144 | Browns | 50% | 39% | @ LV |
| 158 | Raiders | 6% | 4% | CLE |
| 165 | Packers | 85% | 78% | MIN |
| 161 | Ravens | 86% | 79% | NYJ |
| 117 | Bills | 50% | 40% | @ HOU |
| 110 | Rams | 57% | 41% | TB |
| 100 | Saints | 2% | 1% | ATL |
| 148 | Lions | 67% | 54% | NYG |
| 117 | 49ers | 18% | 14% | CAR |