I appreciate no one doesn't have a crystal ball however I'm just wondering what the general consensus is regarding crypto markets over the course of next 12 months. Do we think we will be in a bull market with all Time highs or could there be a crash? Or just sideways movement?

Context and reason for my question is I don't have any position in crypto yet and I won't have any liquid cash until a year from now as I'm looking to sell my house next summer.

I'm just getting real bad FOMO. Any insights?? 😅

All the noise from people keep saying that the next bear market will be a cute little dip. That we would go into "stocks like environment" where we see smaller dips, but also smaller gains in coming bulls.

Nope.

2026 is shaping up to be the most violent unwinding this space has ever experienced, and almost nobody is ready for it, as the general consensus from retail is the opposite atm.

Let me explain why.

1. Institutions don’t hodl. They sell. And HARD they will sell.

This cycle was the first time Bitcoin became a truly real institutional asset. Sounds bullish on paper, but the reality no one wants to talk about: institutions are forced sellers during recessions.

They de risk into cash.

They have clients to protect, redemptions to satisfy and risk rules to follow.

They are not your diamond handed Twitter influencers or average crypto bro from Reddit.

When liquidity dries up, they don’t wait for hopium. They hit the sell button.

2. The MicroStrategy situation is a ticking bomb. BOMB. The "Tsar bomba" kind of a bomb.

Everyone treats MSTR like some “savior of Bitcoin”, but it is basically a publicly traded giga leveraged long BTC position. They have billions in debt and BTC as collateral. If BTC drops -40 to -50%, which it likely will, they get squeezed harder than crypto gif memes.

If MSTR starts getting margin pressure or forced collateral adjustments, then the selling pressure will be worse than 3AC, Celsius and Terra combined. We will se a huge black swan event, similar or wose than the FTX event. However, this can be magnificant for retail to entry at low prices.

3. ETF flows do not just go up.

Yes. We had the first ETF driven bull run ever. But know what? That will follow with the first ETF driven bear run. If there is a recession or just a risk off macro period, ETF outflows will be brutal. Financial advisors will rotate clients into safer assets. Pension funds will reduce risk exposure. Family offices will trim BTC like any other volatile asset. When the lights go off for good (already starting), ETF outflows mean instant sell pressure that retail is not ready for.

4. Corporate treasuries might have to dump too.

Companies holding BTC look cool in a bull run, but when earnings weaken and credit conditions tighten.. Yeah, time to buckle up and say cya. It's natural for boards to tell them to cut risk. Auditors push impairment accounting. Cash becomes the thing again. Corporate selling has not been tested in a real macro downturn. 2026 WILL LIKELY be the first time.

5. Leverage in this market is insane compared to previous cycles.

The amount of perpetuals, options, structured BTC notes and corporate debt collateralized by BTC is ridiculous. When all of that unwinds under macro stress, it won’t be a small minus -30% dip. It will be a face melting liquidity vacuum.

6. QE will not save you early. It arrives after the pain.

Last but not least. Most people embrace the hopium of QE starting in 2026. Yes. Probably and actually, likely. But only after the market collapses. Q1-Q2 will be brutal. It will be enough time for the charts to plummet so hard it will go beneath your screen's bottom corner. Yes, after that will likely come QE, but why hold through that when one can sell now and double their position soon?

The next crash will not be (only) a retail emotional panic.

It will be an institutional, corporate, leverage driven purge.

BTC survives. ETH probably survives. SOL might survive but bleed badly. Most altcoins will die and never come back. Many of the TOP 20 and even TOP 50 alts are already down -60% to -80% of their ATH prices. ADA going $0,02 or ALGO below $0,5 or ETH below $1000 are not unlikely scenarios. Some will drop even a lot more. Many big alts will be f**d up so hard even their mother will not recognitze them.

So what I'm kinda trying to say.. If you think 2022 was bad, 2026 is going to surprise you.

Not financial advice, btw.

Just a warning from someone who finally stopped drinking hopium and started looking at the actual market structure we created.