First things first: the stunningly audacious raid that extracted Nicolás Maduro and his wife from Venezuela is a genuinely history-making victory for Donald Trump. At a cost of zero American lives, the United States captured a singularly destructive force: a dictator whose record of criminality and misrule blighted millions of Venezuelan lives and destabilized politics in the entire Western hemisphere.

After clumsily stealing an election he had plainly lost by a landslide eighteen months ago, Nicolás Maduro kept running the Venezuelan state as a sprawling criminal syndicate. Along with his powerbroker wife, Cilia Flores, he belongs in a prison cell as surely as anyone I can think of. Which is why you’ll be hard pressed to find a Venezuelan who doesn’t, on some level, rejoice at last night’s news.

In the weeks leading up to this history-making raid, I more than once rolled my eyes at reports that the United States might be planning an extraction operation to effectively kidnap a sitting president. The idea seemed just fantastical and theatrical, not to say harebrained. Well, they did it, and anyone who tells you they’re not at least a little bit impressed by the feat is probably lying.

Venezuelans today are waking up to an unrecognizable country. Like every dictatorship, Maduro’s had invested heavily in the myth of its own invincibility. And yet the regime is very much still in place, albeit in a weird, decapitated state. State TV is still running regime propaganda, Vice President (soon, one surmises, to shed the “vice”) Delcy Rodríguez is still fulminating on behalf of the Venezuelan government, the hardline interior minister Diosdado Cabello is still giving fire-breathing speeches condemning American aggression, Maduro’s notoriously repressive attorney general, Tarek William Saab, is still out mining the night’s events for propaganda points. The entire ghastly apparatus of state repression that Hugo Chávez built and Nicolás Maduro perfected appears, for now, to be fully in control of the country.

Maduro is gone. It’s tempting to think that, without him, the regime will implode. But Maduro’s was never the kind of personalist system that depends on a single leader. It was always more of a team effort, with a constellation of influential figures like Rodríguez and Cabello teaming up with Cuban intelligence to keep dissent at bay. In other words, the kind of regime that could very well survive decapitation. And if it does, Venezuelans will get the worst of it.

For three decades, the most trustworthy principle for interpreting Venezuelan affairs has been a simple heuristic: whatever outcome makes Venezuelans’ lives most miserable is always to be treated as the odds-on-favorite. If, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio apparently told Senator Mike Lee, the United States really isn’t planning any follow-on actions against the rump regime, then for Venezuelans on the ground nothing may change. Things could get even worse: you can easily imagine a wounded and humiliated Chavista successor ratcheting up state repression to rebuild the regime’s now tattered aura of invincibility.

Maduro’s abduction could easily become an all-purpose excuse to crack down on any and every sign of dissent: any expression of dissatisfaction will surely be used as evidence of connivance with the American enemy. Trump’s stunning one-day win could be remembered for heralding an even darker stage in Venezuela’s path towards totalitarianism.

At the same time, as the post-9/11 era showed, if the United States did attempt to install a democratic government, that too could go wrong in a million ways. This is not to mention the fact that the operation was carried out illegally, with no Congressional authorization, and that the precedent of superpowers deciding which foreign leaders to capture may not always lead to the downfall of people as evil as Maduro.

All through this latest round of American pressure, the specter of half-measures has loomed large over Venezuela’s future. The Bolivarian regime is always at its most vicious when it feels most threatened, and, right now, it must feel enormously threatened. Time and again, when the regime feels threatened, it’s ordinary Venezuelans who pay the price.

Donald Trump and Marco Rubio will take a victory lap today. They deserve it. They’ve struck an enormous blow against a genuinely evil regime. But they’ve not overthrown it. Chavismo is very much still in control of Venezuela. Bloodied, weakened, humiliated, yes, but still in control, and newly motivated to exert even more state terror in a bid to stay in power.

Venezuelans all around the world are celebrating the fall of a vicious tyrant. But if the regime manages to ride out this storm, we won’t be celebrating for long.

Should he step down?

Also to what degree is American intervention necessary?

My TL;dr take is Maduro is awful, he clearly rigged the last election & is an illegitimate leader, Venezuelans would be far better off without him, & he ought to step down and be thrown in prison. I think the US could get rid of him in a matter of weeks (similar to what we did in Panama with Noriega). But I also don’t trust the Trump Admin to execute this competently, or in a way that doesn’t embarrass/undermine the image of the American military on the world stage. I think the manner they went about targeting of narco trafficking boats is evidence of the Admin operating in a way that is sloppy.

What are you thoughts?

on Con Maduro, the Venezuelan President discusses his political views on Marxist revolution and what it means to be Bolivarian socialist

So I do not have any deeper knowledge of politics in Venezuela. I obviously know about the troubles with hyperinflation and drug wars and had the impression, that Maduro was often directly harming his citizens. At the moment alot of online leftists (I did not have any discussions with actual people on this topic yet) seem to be quite in favor of his reelection, while the established media seems to hate him. What is an anarchist perspective on the election? Maybe someone from Venezuela can answer or maybe someone could provide some sources from there or from anarchist news sites. I am completely ignorant on the issue please educate me

Nicolás Maduro is a very controversial figure viewed by the west as a dictator does he have achievements ?

In my opinion yes, maduro has been violating democracy, human rights, and destroying the economy since he got to power.

Although I find unlikely trump does this and is just a show of force in responde to Maduro talking trash about him.

Opinions?.

The amount of information coming out about him is overwhelming.

You have just been elected president.But You know that Venezuela is on a tight-rope. The venezuelan industry is pathetic, and should oil, the main export of Venezuela lose its value,the economy and after that the welfare system would collapse.

Also, you are afraid of potential americans sanctions,as their politicians seem hostile to Venezuela

How do you avoid the historical fate of Venezuela ?

ALL POSTS ABOUT THE INVASION ARE LOCKED. KEEP ALL DISCUSSIONS ABOUT THIS TOPIC TO MEGATHREADS!

Early on Saturday, explosions were heard and aircraft was spotted in Caracas, Venezuela's capital. This happens after months of allegations that Venezuela has turned into a narco state. It is the first invasion by the US on Latin America since 1989.

According to the US, they have successfully captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife, and they have been flown out of the country. Venezuelans leaders have not confirmed or denied this fact.

Source: Reuters

We expect more information in the coming hours regarding this conflict between US and Venezuela. I have to leave soon, so if any mod reads this, feel free to start a 2nd Megathread later. Otherwise, I'll keep updating this megathread later today.

Don't forget to respect our rules, particularly the one regarding civility!

Maduro is the corrupt, illegitimate head of a authoritarian government that likely works directly with drug cartels to supply the world with illegal drugs. The world agrees that he lost the last election, and remains in power due to an unwillingness to allow a peaceful turnover. The citizens are oppressed and suffer from a damaged economy and political turmoil.

All that can be true, AND that is not our reason for his kidnapping. He is not a great guy. However, Venezuela is surrounded by countries that are also shrouded in drug trade, with leaders that are not 'great guys'. Columbia right next door is still the world's largest producer of illegal drugs. They get repeatedly sanctioned for backsliding on democracy, and their anti-drug efforts are perfunctory and mostly for show. da Silva of Brazil was previously arrested for corruption, and is back in power again. Paraguay, Bolivia, Nicaragua, etc all share very similar situations.

And if we go wider, we only need look at countries like Russia and China for leaders that were not legitimately chosen by the people, and are guilty of transgressions against the US.

However, we chose to intercede in Venezuela. The difference between Venezuela and the rest is Venezuela sits on possibly the largest oil reserve in the world. The impetus of this invasion, like Iraq, is purely for oil. And like Iraq, the public justification is nothing but disguise. Change my view.