Poker Variance Calculator for cash games. Displays variance, possible downswings, upswings and probabilities depending on your win rate.

October 1, 2024 - The purpose of this calculator is to estimate the probability of ruin, given a positive expected value, standard deviation, bankroll, and infinite play. The calculator assumes the player flat betting and the odds of every trial are the same. The question the calculator answers is what is the probability the player would run out of money, as opposed to growing his bankroll forever.

October 3, 2024 - This purpose of this page is to calculate the session probability of ruin, given the bankroll, game, hours played, and hands per hour. The calculator assumes if the player ever goes negative before his session is over, then he must walk away broke. He may not ask for credit.

It’s called Risk of Ruin (RoR), a statistic that is crucial to know if you’re serious about making money in trading. For example, let’s say you are risking 10% of your capital per trade, have a 2:1 reward to risk ratio per trade (R:R) and an accuracy rate of 35%.

I'm asking this since most of the online calculators use 5% as the lowest only option and the calculator I posted in the OP had a option to go lower than 5%. I assumed most poker pros used 5% because of this and because from what I read "ALL" the articles are saying 5% is the % used by pro players when they talk about ROR, and why I questioned if this was true and if any pro players did actually use <1%? ... If you're playing micros, I'd probably advise you to play with around 30 BI brm. It should get stricter as you move up though. So around 50 BI for professional players seems fine (Around 2-5% risk of ruin).

But the calculator can also be used to control the risk of ruin of the strategy and/or the peak-to-valley drawdown. With this calculator traders can know the chances of blowing their trading account over time, with a particular trading strategy. This is based on the win rate percentage and the average risk percentage per trade.

December 27, 2024 - To calculate the risk of ruin, raise the ratio of loss probability to win probability to the power of the bankroll size divided by the bet size.

This formula can be derived from ... 0.01)/(ln(0.49/0.51)) ≈ 115.11. In poker, the most common formula used to calculate bankroll requirements is b = (s2/(2m))ln(1/r), where s is our standard deviation and m is our winrate....

April 12, 2025 - For five trades, the risk of ruin is about 3% since all five trades would have to fail for the account to be ruined. For additional trades, the accumulated risk of ruin slowly increases. Calculations of risk become much more complex under a realistic variety of conditions.

January 25, 2024 - This generalized risk equation can be used for any game with a constant set of payouts that occur with a prescribed frequency. If a game does not have a positive expectation, then the smallest positive solution for R(1) is 1, reflecting the fact that ruin is inevitable. Video poker is well suited for the above equations.. In the next section we will show how to use [8] to calculate the risk of ruin for the Deuces Wild version of video poker.

(Dunbar rounds all of his bankroll figures to the nearest $10.) As you may know, I've released a new video poker software program called Video Poker for Winners. VPW also has a risk of ruin calculator, and the figure it comes up with for the game in question is $4,534.

December 29, 2013 - Makes me feel dumb for asking nothing bad about feeling dumb. the end result matters excellent start what is your desired risk of ruin? 5%, 1% or less. each level down wants more money to start I would think actually winning would be more important.

Risk of ruin (ROR) is the term risk professionals use for the probability of going bankrupt. A ROR of 1% means that if you start with a poker playing bankroll of $B and play at a constant winning rate for approximately the same stakes, then there is only a 1% chance you will run out of money.

April 19, 2024 - Optimize trading strategy with our Risk of Ruin Calculator. Calculate risk of max. drawdown and risk of ruin with your parameters.

This is a purely mathematical calculation. There are no statistical methods involved. However, it is possible that some inputs can result in numbers outside of the range that can be normally interpreted by a computer. In these cases a limiting estimate is computed. This occurs when negative expected value (or win rate less than 50%) is input with a large 'Units to Risk' and/or 'Units Profit For Success'. This is the math theory. Risk of Ruin Calculator Units to Risk Units Profit Tie Rate (in %) Win Rate (in %) Expected Value (in %) Risk of Ruin (in %)

Average win – average winning trade, in money terms. Average loss – average losing trade, in money terms. Risk per Trade (%) – what is the risk taken per each trade, in percentage.

Bankroll: Can be left blank and is only used when calculating the risk of ruin. Click on Calculate and the Poker Variance Calculator does its magic. It simulates whatever tournament schedule you have entered over as many samples as you have entered.

March 27, 2025 - Risk of Ruin is a concept commonly used in finance and gambling to assess the likelihood of losing a significant portion of your capital before reaching your financial goals. This calculator helps you estimate this risk based on your win rate, risk percentage, initial capital, and target capital.

The cTrader Risk of Ruin (ROR) Calculator is an advanced tool to evaluate your probability of loss when trading manually or by using an automated trading system, it will calculate the probability of hitting a specific drawdown or ruin.