In short, we are positive about the economy’s fundamentals and believe they can provide ballast in the event of a recession. Nonetheless, the bear-market bottom for stocks may still be 5%-10% away. Investors should remain patient and consider using tax-efficient rebalancing, including by harvesting losses, to neutralize their major overweight and underweight exposures. And, as we continue to emphasize, pursue maximum asset-class diversification. This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from June 27, 2022, “Inflation-Driven Recessions are Different.” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy.

Recession is often defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction—declining real GDP. The nation’s GDP fell 1.6 percent on an annualized basis in first quarter 2022 and was followed by a 0.9 percent drop in the second quarter.

July 28, 2022 - There are many different signs but there’s no one indicator.” During the second quarter of 2022, growth slowed at a 0.9% annualized rate, which some economists would consider to be the start of the recession.

According to the BEA's advance estimate, Gross Domestic Product fell at an annualized rate of 0.9% for the second quarter—which has since been revised downward to a decline of only 0.6% following a 1.6% decline in GDP reported for the first ...

September 24, 2025 - The 2022 stock market decline was a bear market that included the decline of several stock market indices worldwide between January and October 2022. The decline was due to the highest inflation readings as part of the 2021–2023 inflation surge and the resulting increases in interest rates, ...

July 20, 2022 - The median probability of a recession over the next 12 months is 47.5%, up from 30% in June, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists completed last week.

April 28, 2024 - It's also not the first time that two consecutive quarters of decline were not called a recession and a recession can even be shorter than 2 quarters.

September 26, 2024 - One of the adjustments: GDP is now estimated to have grown in the second quarter of 2022 at a 0.3% annual rate. It had previously been estimated to have shrunk at a 0.6% rate, the second of two quarters of contraction.

July 6, 2022 - That does not mean for certain that the economy is in recession as this article is written, but it raises serious concerns. We are not in recession, but close enough to be worried.

October 2, 2022 - Over the past week, the pulse of those flashing red lights quickened as markets grappled with the reality — once speculative, now certain — that the Federal Reserve will press on with its most aggressive monetary tightening campaign in decades to wring inflation from the US economy. Even if that means triggering a recession.

March 25, 2022 - Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the ...

October 17, 2022 - The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for ...

September 16, 2022 - WASHINGTON, September 15, 2022—As central banks across the world simultaneously hike interest rates in response to inflation, the world may be edging toward a global recession in 2023 and a string of financial crises in emerging market and ...

January 28, 2025 - Between these peaks, the recession odds remain relatively low, indicating periods of economic stability. The recent data shows a rise in recession odds around 2022, which did not coincide with an actual recession, indicated by a lack of shaded ...

February 3, 2023 - The US’s GDP did decline for two consecutive quarters last year, the traditional definition of a recession. But even if the jobs market was weaker than initially reported in 2022, the latest data shows that weakness was shortlived.

December 27, 2022 - This is going to be be a classic recession," said Tom Simons, money market economist at Jefferies. "The transmission mechanism we're going to see it work through first in the beginning of next year, we'll start to see some significant margin ...

April 30, 2025 - And even with two negative quarters, ... that here.) Back in 2022, we actually had two consecutive quarters of contraction, but no recession....

November 18, 2022 - THE EDITORS of the Collins English Dictionary have declared “permacrisis” to be their word of the year for 2022. Defined as an “an extended period of instability and insecurity”, it is an ugly portmanteau that accurately encapsulates ...

2 weeks ago - However, real GDP was not expected to regain its Q4 2019 level until 2022 or later. The unemployment rate was forecast to average 11.5% in 2020 and 9.3% in 2021. The COVID recession increased wealth and racial inequality.