Many economists predicted a recession in 2023. But consumers flipped the script on the experts.

December 22, 2023 - Many financial firms sent out remarkably negative forecasts. "We are expecting a recession in the first half of 2023," reads the Mortgage Bankers Association's outlook for the year.

The Forum’s economic briefing ... in November and December 2022. Since then, the World Bank has predicted a global recession for 2023, anticipating GDP growth of 1.7%, the slowest pace outside the 2009 and 2020 recessions ...

April 4, 2024 - The U.S. economy entered 2023 with elevated inflation and concerns by many that a recession could be imminent; it ended the year with solid economic growth, moderating inflation, healthy job growth, and low unemployment.

October 24, 2023 - Recessions often happen when least expected. For the past 2 years, every economist and their neighbor’s grandma were predicting a recession in 2023. It didn’t happen. Now that they’re all predicting there won’t be one, I am bracing myself that we are at risk for one.

January 5, 2023 - The threat of a U.S. recession remains alive in 2023. The consensus estimate on the probability of a meaningful downturn in the American economy in the next 12 months is at 65%, according to Goldman Sachs Research.

March 26, 2024 - economy would fall into recession by year end. Instead, the economy continued expanding, with GDP growing by a very solid 2.5%. Why were they wrong, and perhaps more importantly, why is the economy unlikely to outperform again in 2024?

December 19, 2023 - “If inflation is coming down and unemployment isn’t going up, and they can continue this tight roadblock, I think we’ll see the economy cooling off a bit and wages continuing to increase, to catch up to the inflation that we saw over the last couple of years, but not dramatically outpace that,” Rothstein said. “ … If they’re not successful, the risk is that they overtighten and tip us over into a recession, but thus far there’s no sign that that’s what’s going on.”

February 3, 2023 - In the United States, growth is forecast to fall to 0.5% in 2023—1.9 percentage points below previous forecasts and the weakest performance outside of official recessions since 1970.

January 26, 2024 - The recession America was expecting never showed up. Many economists spent early 2023 predicting a painful downturn, a view so widely held that some commentators started to treat it as a given.

November 18, 2025 - At the same time, analysis shows that corporate price gouging contributed significantly, with some estimates attributing over half of inflation in mid-2023 to markups that persisted even after costs fell. Taken together, these dynamics created a uniquely challenging inflation environment. Despite the confluence of shocks, inflation had largely moderated by late 2024, averaging near or below 2 percent for the second half of the year. Inflation risks should be carefully considered in both fiscal and monetary responses, but, in most recessions, striking the right balance does not and should not stand in the way of bold, necessary action.

Companies will experience turbulence due to domestic and international economic instability, which will be further exacerbated as half of the large and mid-sized banks in the US begin implementing stricter requirements for commercial loans. Energy Price Spikes Oil prices also indicate a coming recession. A barrel of oil has risen to 95 USD in October 2023, up 25 USD since Summer 2023.

September 16, 2022 - WASHINGTON, September 15, 2022—As central banks across the world simultaneously hike interest rates in response to inflation, the world may be edging toward a global recession in 2023 and a string of financial crises in emerging market and ...

January 24, 2023 - In a recent poll of economists, the World Economic Forum found that nearly two-thirds of the respondents believe there will be a recession in 2023.

December 1, 2022 - Corporations will then be forced to curtail hiring and pull back on capital expenditures. The eventual job losses will lead to a contraction in consumer spending, leading the economy into a recession in the second half of 2023.

May 2, 2022 - Other banks aren’t as optimistic. Deutsche Bank economists now see a recession coming by the end of 2023 as inflation becomes more broad-based.

June 5, 2023 - Zandi is growing more confident that 2023 won’t be the year when a downturn will begin. “For this year, given these jobs numbers, it’s hard to see a recession. Increasingly, the odds of a recession this year are fading,” Zandi said.

February 16, 2024 - It appears that many economists wrongly predicted a recession in 2023 and that fact was duly noted in the media when we ended the year with not merely a positive growth rate (3.1%) but a surge in job creation over the last few months that beat all expectations.

December 22, 2023 - Last January, the Wall Street Journal ... drastic happens in the next few days, most of them got it wrong—2023 came and went with no recession in sight....

December 27, 2023 - The U.S. economy avoided the recession forecast for 2023.