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Even if Russia succeeds in taking all of Donbass, strategically speaking Putin already lost the battle for the 21st century.
Putin invaded Ukraine expecting a week-long, largely bloodless occupation that would erase Ukrainian statehood and set the Russia-NATO border at Lviv for the foreseeable future. He has been grooming the Russian military for decades. According to documents leaked in 2023, after securing the Ukrainian flank, Putin expected to easily do the same to the Baltic states while NATO would do little more than issue formal statements of complaint at the UN assembly. A new Soviet Union would then largely be restored and Russia would cement its presence as one of the major powers alongside the United States and China for the remainder of the 21st century.
In view of this, what happened in practice was a nightmare scenario. Even if Russia comes away from this war with a small portion of Ukraine that is by now entirely destroyed and almost completely de-populated, over the last four years it lost much, much more.
Instead of erasing the Ukrainian statehood, Putin has now cemented it though fire. Ukraine between 1991-2014 was politically divided between its Pro-European nationalist west and relatively more Pro-Russian and less nationalist east. There was a real chance that long-term Ukraine would fall back into Russia's sphere of influence. That will not be the case following this war. A Pro-Russian politician like Yanukovych will not come to power to Ukraine for a long, long time. Speaking Russian in Ukraine is now considered a grave sin. From my experience, even the Ukrainians on the far east who spoke Russian for generations have all switched over to Ukrainian. Whatever cultural bond existed between Russians and Ukrainians after the USSR's collapse is gone. Ukraine is now a nation with a unique history, a war-hardened military capable of stopping its gravest enemy, and a national identity undeniably distinct from Russia's.
Instead of fragmenting NATO, Putin expanded and hardened it. Finland and Sweden joined only because of his invasion further exposing Russia's border with the West. European countries which have been largely demilitarized and pacifist for decades have finally started making serious investment into their militaries and national security. There was a real chance Donald Trump might've ditched Europe for Russia. It is very difficult to see that happening now with America having strong economic interests in protecting Ukraine's rare minerals and buying Ukraine's drones. Worst of all, Russia will likely now face a strong, war-hardened, stringently Anti-Russian Ukrainian military right at its border for the remainder of the century. Ukraine coming back to restore its lost land will now be a constant threat.
Instead of solidifying Russia as a major power, Putin solidified Russia as China's junior partner. Russia's economy is now smaller than Italy's and is completely isolated on the world stage. Financially, it now relies almost entirely on China buying its oil. China has changed its purchasing terms multiple times already and every time Putin bends the knee. He knows that if China stops buying his oil, Russia is done for. He is now Xi's puppet in all but name. With a third of the federal budget going to fund the war, inflation and interest rates reached double-digits and living standards for any Russian outside of Moscow or St Petersburg completely collapsed. Lastly, Russia's only real pre-war asset - its military which Putin has been building for decades - was greatly weakened in Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands (if not a million) Russians died on the battlefield. With each passing year, Putin has extensively needed to rely on North Korean, Iranian, African, and Chinese fighters more and more. It will take decades to restore Russia's pre-war military strength and Russia will not seriously threaten anybody again for a long time.
It is entirely possible that Putin might go down in Russian history as the man who conquered Donbass. He will also go down as the tsar who forever lost Russia's superpower status.