snowflake just absolutely lost its mind this quarter. like product rev is up 34% to like 1.33B which is insane, and everyone on here is freaking out over the stock popping but they are completely missing the actual point, the real juice is one layer deeper. they just locked in a massive 6 BILLION dollar deal with AWS and bought natoma, which means agentic AI is actually happening, but that money hits the plumbing first. like before snowflake even sees that revenue, amazon is capturing the cloud spend, datadog is grabbing all the telemetry dollars, and servicenow is swallowing the workflow orchestration. its a massive timing mismatch and that mismatch is literally where the free money is if you trade it right. i am so stressed about the timeline for the natoma rollout though bc nobody knows the latency on those features (if anyone has the roadmap pls drop it below im begging u). basically ignore the headline lag and watch ddog and now bookings right now for the real alpha. is anyone else tracking this or am i just screaming into the void??

The broader market selloff has compressed SNOW from $277 in Nov 2025 to ~$153 in four months. That's a lot of fear priced in. I’ve been building conviction on Snowflake for the past few months. I think it is finally getting interesting for a staged entry. You're buying a high quality compounder at a valuation that, while not cheap, is the most reasonable it's been since 2022.

I'm planning to start with a small position and plan to scale in through 2026 as execution confirms.

Here’s my thesis.

Snowflake just closed FY2026 with $4.72B in product revenue, up 30% YoY. Q4 product revenue hit $1.23B (+30%), and the company guided FY2027 at ~$5.66B (~27% growth). That's deceleration from the triple-digit days, but 27-30% growth at this scale puts SNOW in rare company among enterprise software names. What also caught my attention are the leading indicators underneath it.

1. AI consumption is inflecting.

Over 9100 accounts are now using Snowflake AI features — the largest sequential increase the company has ever reported. Snowflake Intelligence scaled to 2500+ accounts in just 3 months. Cortex Code is already active across 4400+ customer accounts. Customers are driving incremental platform consumption on top of existing analytics and data engineering workloads. AI workloads are becoming a second growth engine.

2. RPO acceleration signaling revenue durabiliTty.

Remaining performance obligations hit $9.77B, up 42% YoY and that growth rate accelerated for the second consecutive quarter. RPO is the closest thing to a forward-looking revenue guarantee in a consumption model. When RPO is growing faster than revenue, it means the backlog is building, not depleting. For a company the market is pricing like growth is dying, that is a disconnect. 

3. The platform is becoming stickier.

The product surface now spans analytics, data engineering, AI/ML, and now observability (Observe acquisition). Each new workload a customer adopts raises switching costs. Net revenue retention at 125% confirms existing customers keep spending more. 733 customers now spend $1M+ annually (+27% YoY), and Snowflake serves 790 of the Forbes Global 2000. This is becoming enterprise infrastructure.

However, there are two keys risks pulling me from starting a position.

1. Valuation.

Even after a 45% drawdown (~$153), SNOW trades at ~12x forward revenue and a forward P/E near 200. The stock is priced for sustained high growth and margin expansion. If revenue growth decelerates below 25%, the multiple has room to compress further. GAAP losses widened to -$1.33B in FY2026, and stock-based compensation remains elevated at ~37% of revenue. I think the valuation carries real risk.

2. Databricks and hyperscalers Competition.

Databricks is growing faster in ML-heavy workloads and has stronger momentum with data engineering teams. AWS (SageMaker Lakehouse), Google (BigQuery + Gemini), and Azure (Azure OpenAI) are all converging toward integrated data + AI stacks that work natively with existing cloud workloads. Snowflake multi-cloud neutrality is a differentiator, but hyperscalers control the underlying infrastructure and increasingly offer competitive alternatives. If enterprises consolidate onto single-cloud stacks, Snowflake's advantage weakens.

Curious what others think, anyone else building a position here? or waiting for further weakness lower than $50B valuation?

Everyone loved Snowflake ($SNOW) when Buffett had a piece during the IPO. But let’s ignore the name and look at the numbers.

Snowflake has positive free cash flow. Last year it was $880 million. But their five-year average is only $4 million. They are still unprofitable overall, and they trade at 68 times last year’s free cash flow. If you use the five-year average, it’s 145 times. That’s steep.

Revenue is $3.6 billion, and the price-to-sales ratio is 16.7. Even for software, that is high. I get that there’s growth potential, and I am willing to pay a premium for growth, but the question is how much of a premium is reasonable.

If this were trading at 10 times sales, maybe I would consider it. But at 17 times, it just doesn’t make sense for me. That puts my interest price somewhere around $80 to $90 per share. Right now, it is almost double that.

They have also increased their share count by about 15 percent. So there is some dilution to think about too.

If it drops in half, I will take a closer look. It hit $107 in the past year, so if it goes below $90, it gets more interesting.

This is not a bad business. It is just overpriced. That is why I wait. Let the hype cool off. Then maybe I step in when others give up.

I’m looking for some guidance on Snowflake (SNOW). I currently own 135 shares at an average cost of $233.67. The stock has been sliding pretty hard over the past couple weeks and is now around ~$216.

What’s throwing me off is that SNOW actually had a solid earnings report with fair/steady guidance, yet the stock has continued trending down anyway. I’m trying to figure out whether this is just market sentiment, profit-taking, or something fundamentally changing.

I’ve been selling calls trying to make a dent in overall cost base. I am thinking of averaging down with 65 more shares so I can sell 2 call contracts and get a little more premium but I hate to catch a falling knife.

Does averaging down make sense here, or does the chart still look weak with more room to fall?

What are your thoughts about $SNOW at its current levels at 153 USD? Does it look attractive to you at these levels?

Snowflake Inc. is a company that provides a cloud-based data platform, known as the Data Cloud, which allows organizations to consolidate data for insights, applications, and sharing. They operate on a customer-centric, consumption-based model, charging for actual resource usage.

Snowflake's platform is built on a cloud-native architecture with three scalable layers for compute, storage, and cloud services. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Bozeman, Montana. As of the most recent data, Snowflake's market cap is $51.38 billion, with total revenues of $2.81 billion.

Despite negative margins in profitability, Snowflake shows strong revenue growth with a 3-year CAGR of 67.98%. Analysts have a mean target price of $207.55 for Snowflake's stock, with a consensus recommendation score of 2.

I have researched that they are cloud agnostic which means they offer aws and gcp or digital ocean servers and powered by AI. but i dont know if i understood it correctly.

in their earnings tomorrow they went up to 20% after being on all time low last yr october

also forecasts for 250$ or more are hitting up all over the news
https://www.tradingnews.com/news/snowflake-stock-price-forecast-nyse-snow-soars-18-percent

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/snowflake-partners-openai-200-million-155500591.html

Snowflake (SNOW) said on Monday it has entered a $200 million partnership with OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) to integrate advanced artificial intelligence ​models directly into its cloud data platform, as enterprises increasingly ‌turn to AI to extract insights from vast troves of data.

OpenAI is unstoppable. Unfortunately can't invest directly in them, but Microsoft is probably one of the few AI plays that are good right now, because they own a large stake in OpenAI and also benefit from OpenAI as a customer of Azure.

Recently, snowflake has jumped 43% ever since the earnings beat back on November 20th. Historically, the company had SBC dilution problems but that doesn't seem to be driving the price down any longer. Any thoughts on why the big jump in price considering they're net income is still net negative, and their valuations are rich? I like their product and believe in it long term, but I was wondering if now is not a good time to invest?

Press Release:
"Product revenue of $900.3 million in the third quarter, representing 29% year-over-year growth

• Net revenue retention rate of 127%

• 542 customers with trailing 12-month product revenue greater than $1 million

• 754 Forbes Global 2000 customers

• Remaining performance obligations of $5.7 billion, representing 55% year-over-year growth"

What’s up everyone. I’ve been tracking Snowflake ($SNOW) lately and while the broad market is rallying on the ceasefire news, SNOW is still sitting near its 52-week lows. I think we are looking at a massive technical mean reversion play here.

The Technicals:

RSI is Oversold: We are sitting at an RSI of ~35. On the daily chart, SNOW hasn't been this oversold without a bounce in months. Selling pressure looks exhausted.

Key Support Level: We just touched $149.24 and saw some buying interest. The $150 psychological support is holding for now. If we consolidate here, the next leg up is a test of the 50-day MA at $174.

The Gap: There is a significant gap between the current price (~$151) and the 200-day moving average (~$214). Even a partial recovery offers a 15–20% upside.

Volume: We saw high-volume selling last week, which looks like capitulation. The weak hands are out, and the “smart money” might be accumulating at these levels.

The Narrative: Everyone is scared of “AI disruption” killing legacy cloud players but Snowflake’s data cloud is still the backbone for enterprise data. I think the market has overreacted.

I’m looking to enter long if we hold $152 this week, targeting a first exit at the 50-day MA ($174).

This is Not financial advice. Just doing some technical DD. What do you guys think? Is the AI fear real, or is this a gift at $150?

What do you guys think of buying snowflake here? I haven't invested in growth stocks in a long time, but i was looking at snowflake as a good new opportunity to reinvest. I work in Cloud Computing sector and snowflake is really really big in big multinational companies i also see many people migrating their data to snowflake. Just some anecdotal evidence, so this is where my interest is coming from in addition to the "low" price. So i'm wondering what you people think about investing in snowflake here?

I bought Snowflake #SNOW at $154 today.

Positives:

There is some sandbagging in the guidance for the incoming CEO to make a better mark, I don’t believe they’ve completely elaborated on likely growing revenue streams.

New CEO, Sridhar Ramaswamy has an excellent resume, 15 years at Google, then he co-founded Neeva, which was bought by Snowflake. With his tech cred he actually has better product knowledge than the outgoing legendary CEO, Frank Slootman, and his tech cred should be a big factor in taking Snowflake forward.

Its partnership with Nvidia is a fairly big deal for a recurring AL/LLM solutions/services. Snowflake’s AI product, Cortex should be out in the second or third quarter of 2024. Snowflake has also responded well to Databricks comparisons and shouldn’t be seen as lagging. The other new product Snowpark should also grow a lot faster.

Snowflake’s free cash flow margin was very impressive at 35% of sales last year. Like most tech companies it doesn’t generate GAAP profits, but this a hugely positive number, it exceeds Crowdstrike’s 30% and several other tech growers. It has indicated 29% free cash flow margin for 2024.

Moving to a consumption model has shown poorer forecasted revenue growth at 22-23% but bookings are growing at much faster levels, Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) grew at 41% so this is not a long term problem.

Negatives

The company is expensive at 15x sales with only 23% growth! Even after the stock being 35% lower than its 52 week high.

It could stay sideways for a year, or if there is another weak quarter, it could drop to $130-135, where it’s down to 12-13 x sales. Look out for a bumpy ride!

Snowflake has recently announced raising $2 bn of convertible debt to buy back $ 575m of stock with the rest for general corporate purposes. Sure, why not.

Except $SNOW has already repurchased more than $1.4 bn at higher prices. In addition, they have $3 bn in cash with (previously) $0 debt.

In the 6 months ending in 2024, they've already repurchased 5,939k shares at an average cost @ 154.30, for a total of $916 million. In the past 18 months alone they've spent $1.4 bn on share repurchases alone at higher share prices. Shares are down 40% YTD so maybe not the best move. They've now tarnished their balance sheet just to buy back overpriced shares.

What's worse is their shares are pretty overvalued, trading at 37x forward FCF. In addition, their growth metrics are weakening, with revenue growth rates, gross margins, operating margins, and FCF margins dropping across the board. What in the world is management doing?

Recently, snowflake has jumped 43% ever since the earnings beat back on November 20th. Historically, the company had SBC dilution problems but that doesn't seem to be driving the price down any longer. Any thoughts on why the big jump in price considering they're net income is still net negative, and their valuations are rich? I like their product and believe in it long term, but I was wondering if now is not a good time to invest?

Press Release:
"Product revenue of $900.3 million in the third quarter, representing 29% year-over-year growth

• Net revenue retention rate of 127%

• 542 customers with trailing 12-month product revenue greater than $1 million

• 754 Forbes Global 2000 customers

• Remaining performance obligations of $5.7 billion, representing 55% year-over-year growth"

Value investing is not limited to only positive income or profitable companies but also companies with growth potential and turnaround opportunities.

I’m assuming Snowflake will continue to grow 20% annually in revenue and reducing the loss in coming years. It has few competitive advantages and also meet some of my principles:

1. Rapid Growth: Increasing demand from cloud based data solutions.

2. Market Leadership: Leader in cloud data Lakehouse/Warehouse.

3. Scalability : Serving wide range of customers from small to large enterprises.

4. Potential for profitability: Cost control through cutting down MS and end of expansion with strong customer base.

Source: https://myfinsight.com/snow

Snowflake’s Q3 report shows continued strong revenue growth driven by expanding enterprise adoption and increased consumption, but profitability is still a challenge as operating costs remain high.

The company continues to invest heavily in AI and product innovation, which supports long-term growth but keeps net income in the red.

As a user and investor, do you think Snowflake’s profitability will improve over the long term?