With another year wrapping up, I’m curious how people here are thinking about next year.

What do you think will be the biggest drivers of returns by the end of 2026? Are you making any portfolio adjustments now based on those views?

It's going to be an interesting year for sure..lol.

As we head into 2026, i see the stock market entering a phase of cautious optimism. Inflationary pressures have eased compared to the last two years, and central banks are signaling a more balanced stance. This creates room for value investors to look beyond defensive plays and start identifying sectors with sustainable growth. The broader market may still face volatility, but opportunities exist for those willing to dig into fundamentals.

For the first quarter of the new year, i expect strength in energy transition stocks (companies tied to renewables and grid infrastructure), semiconductors (driven by AI and data center demand), and healthcare innovators (particularly firms with strong pipelines in biotech). These areas combine resilience with long term tailwinds. I am also watching undervalued industrials that benefit from reshoring trends, as they could quietly outperform while the spotlight remains on tech.

One advantage of sticking with traditional finance is the transparency and regulatory oversight it provides. Public companies are required to disclose earnings, governance, and risk factors, which gives investors a clearer framework for decision making compared to more speculative markets. Value investing thrives in this environment because it allows us to separate noise from fundamentals and focus on intrinsic worth.

That said, i have been trading traditional stocks on CEX, as bitget bridge traditional assets with crypto. Traders have been testing out the new TradFi product. But am curious how others here view this kind of new product?

Since it is the first day of the year, I decided to give my predictions for 2026 and beyond. All of these are based on damped sinusoidal waves with 7-year, 5-year, and 19-year cycles. All of the cycles have been checked for significance.

• 2026-Anemic and below historical trending average.

• 2027-Higher than average potential for market losses.

• 2028-Even higher than average probability for market losses. This year holds the highest potential for a market crash in the near future.

• 2029-2031-Anemic and below historical trending market averages.

• 2032-Higher probability of better than average market gains.

I am telling my peeps to take some money off the top, and fall in love with cash and cash equivalents.

If I were to guess what the catalysts are, we have a lot of political risks (i.e., Trump tariffs), and market risks with AI being an over-hyped reality (similar to the tech bubble, but not as severe).

Everyone is starting to ask what next year’s market outlook will be. So let’s study Wall Street’s latest New Year forecasts together. The market has really been wild lately. One minute everyone is celebrating Nvidia’s earnings, thinking tech stocks can keep rising for another ten years, and the next minute the market suddenly tanks and big players dump Nvidia to rotate into Google. The AI ​​boom has clearly entered its second half.

So the question is: how long can this wave last? After this round of Christmas gains, will next year keep taking off or fall flat? Every year end, those suit-and-tie Wall Street elites start brainstorming and draw a road map for the next year. This year, I looked through everything almost all of them are bullish. Eternal bull market.

The most optimistic one is Deutsche Bank. They boldly claim the S&P 500 could reach 8000 points next year, nearly a 20% increase. Keep in mind, the S&P has already risen more than 10% this year, and they still want more. Why so optimistic? It basically comes down to two words: Artificial Intelligence.

AI is no longer just a tech buzzword. It has become the engine of the entire capital market. Nvidia, Microsoft, Google these giants are throwing insane amounts of money into AI R&D. Capital expenditure is at record highs. Deutsche Bank believes AI investment and adoption will dominate market sentiment next year and could even spark a true productivity revolution.

But here’s the problem the S&P 500 is now trading at a 25x P/E ratio, while the historical average is just above 15. Isn’t that expensive? It definitely is. But Deutsche Bank insists that even if valuations don’t expand further, they can stay high. Why? Because supply and demand for stocks are extremely strong. Money is still flowing into equities, corporate buybacks haven’t stopped, and earnings expectations are rising. They even predict that in In 2026, EPS could reach $320.

Interestingly, Morgan Stanley is also bullish, targeting 7800 points, yet they didn’t buy the Magnificent Seven. Their chief strategist Wilson thinks tech stocks might fall alongside the broader market. They prefer small caps, consumer discretionary, healthcare, financials, and industrials. Why? Because they see a key signal earnings expectations are shifting from tech to other sectors, and consumer spending is moving from entertainment to physical goods. This suggests the economy might be entering a new phase.

More importantly, Morgan Stanley is betting that the Fed will cut rates early. The logic is simple: if employment weakens, liquidity tightens, and risk assets fall, Powell won’t be able to hold he’ll have to pump liquidity back into the market. Once rates turn down, the valuation ceiling opens again.

HSBC, Barclays, and UBS all agree. HSBC even said: who cares if there’s a bubble? The dot-com bubble also rose for three to five years just get on the ride first. UBS even drew a bull scenario where the S&P hits 8400. But they also admit the market is shifting from tech dominance to broader sector participation. Capital spending is no longer only on AI chips it’s spreading across more industries.

From my perspective, the U.S. market is still the top priority next year, but we shouldn’t be overly optimistic because it will be Trump’s second year in office. You might not know this, but historically, the second year of a U.S. presidential term especially midterm election years has been the weakest and most volatile for stocks.

In 2018, during Trump 1.0’s second year, the first half was great, then the market collapsed in the second half. The trade war began, tech stocks plunged, the VIX soared 70%, and even crypto and emerging markets crashed.

And now? The script looks nearly identical. Policies change every day. Tariffs can hit at any time. Even if the Supreme Court slows down tax hikes, the possibility alone is enough to make manufacturers, retailers, and exporters lose sleep.

Plus, the 2026 midterm elections are coming. Both parties will go all-out, meaning fiscal policy may freeze again, and market trust in the government will keep eroding.

What’s worse, sector divergence is even more extreme than in 2017. In the U.S., only AI related tech stocks are supporting the market. Materials, energy, real estate everything else is dropping. Europe isn’t much better. Finance and utilities barely hold up while others slump.

When only a few assets are booming and most are stagnant, it signals a fragile market. If tech stocks cool off, the entire market could lose momentum instantly.

So next year, political cycles, policy risks, and the pressure of converting AI hype into real profits these three mountains won’t disappear. Right now the market is pricing in aggressive rate cuts while also assuming a soft landing and continued earnings growth. Wanting everything at once often ends badly.

In my view, the script may look like this:

First half: AI momentum and liquidity expectations may push the market higher again.

Second half: As midterm elections approach, policy noise increases, earnings get disrupted, and volatility returns.

Whoever holds high valuation, low cash flow story stocks will be the most at risk.

Firstly, let me say I hate these over-done posts as much as the next person hah, but I did want to offer my insights as a 20+ year investor with both a long portfolio and an options portfolio that I generate a living income off of.

My long portfolio is currently 100% SGOV. Without overanalyzing or cherry picking, the simplest historic indicators show that market valuations right now are extremely rich, of the type that always proceeds a major correction.

Shiller PE nearing dot-com levels: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Trailing PE highest on record: https://worldperatio.com/index/sp-500/

Forward PE at a ceiling it only surpasses during major market crises: https://en.macromicro.me/series/20052/sp500-forward-pe-ratio

On top of that you have a flight to safety, gold, and a flight from risk, bitcoin, rounding out 2025 narratives.

However, despite this, I'm not actually bearish for 2026. There will be an come-uppance, we all know this, but I can see 2026 melting up another 5-10%.

This is because the single most influential variable the market has responded to in the last 15 years is liquidity, and apparently the biggest source of liquidity isn't jobs or GDP, but interest rates. This has driven the Main St vs. Wall St divide since 2008.

Now the US has an administration that is hell bent on lowering interest rates, regardless of any orthodox impetus to do this. Trump will be appointing a new Fed chair, and possibly more members, who will basically vote how he says. Not only that, but I could see this new chair making statements during any moderate 10% market correction that support QE and rescuing the market, meaning almost any red month will be a buy-the-dip type situation.

We also have a pending SCOTUS decision, possibly as soon as Jan 9th, that actually looks like it could undo tariffs, which I think would cause a rally in the S&P493.

You never know with someone like Trump at the handle, but it's hard for me to see any major negative catalysts for 2026, aside from 'concerns about valuations'. Maybe a single missed ER by nVidia will cause an unwind, or maybe global liquidity will begin to dry-up as most other OECD nations take more moderate monetary policies and more severe theories about the yen carry-trade show true.

I always play defensively as I live off my savings - I intend to stay in SGOV in my long portfolio - I'll take a safe 4.25% over a risky 8.5% any day of the week. For options, where I normally sell CSPs, I'll likely pursue more delta neutral strategies.

This is meant to be light hearted. I'll post this thread again next year, and we can see how we did.

For me

1. I think ai chips + hyperscalers do solid this year

2. I think the market maybe delivers 10%? but i'm feeling a bumpier year

3. gold will underperform

If you could guess what sector will trend for 2026?

Was reviewing the "what is your stock picks for 2026" people are suggesting space / aerospace stocks to trend but there's also talk about energy expansion.

Gold could also rally more, semis can continue to pump too.

What are your thoughts?

It’s that time of the year again we’re nearing the end of 2025 and heading into a brand new year soon. Thanks to recommendations from fellow Redditors, I picked up ASTS, RKLB, and NBIS earlier this year and managed to make some gains.

What bags are you holding now that you think could seriously take off and go to the moon in 2026? #MOONSHOT2026

Wall Street sentiment is starting to shift more positively heading into 2026, especially after the S&P 500 and Dow both hit record highs in the same week the Federal Reserve delivered a rate cut. The timing mattered markets were already on solid footing, and the policy move helped reinforce the idea that financial conditions may stay supportive for longer. What really stood out to investors were Jerome Powell’s comments after the Fed meeting. Instead of pushing back hard against easing expectations, Powell sounded noticeably less hawkish than many feared. That tone gave markets room to breathe, especially after months of uncertainty around inflation, growth, and the labor market. It doesn’t mean risks are gone valuations are still stretched in parts of the market, and economic data remains mixed but the combination of rate relief and calmer Fed messaging has clearly improved confidence. Right now, it feels like investors are less focused on short-term scares and more willing to look ahead into 2026 with a bit more optimism. Curious how others see it: is this the start of a steadier phase for markets, or just another relief rally before the next macro test?

Source:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/not-very-hawkish-at-all-wall-street-optimistic-on-stock-market-rally-in-2026-after-fed-rate-cut-150011314.html

Hey everyone,

I’ve been doing some research across different platforms and news sources, and I’ve put together a list of 10 stocks I’m keeping an eye on. Not sure which ones will continue to climb in 2026, but here’s what I’m watching:

1. INTC – Intel (CPU / Semiconductor)

2. AMD – Advanced Micro Devices (CPU / GPU / Semiconductor)

3. AVGO – Broadcom (Enterprise Chips / Semiconductor)

4. NVDA – Nvidia (GPU / AI / Semiconductor)

5. TSLA – Tesla (Electric Vehicles / EV / AI)

6. GOOGL – Alphabet (Google) (Internet / AI / Cloud)

7. AMZN – Amazon (E-commerce / Cloud / AI)

8. MU – Micron (Memory Chips / Semiconductor)

9. RKLB – Rocket Lab (Aerospace / Space Launch)

10. ANET – Arista Networks (Networking / Data Center)

The order is random, not a ranking.

Here is the list for data from multiple posts and thousands of comments from r/stocks, r/wsb and r/investing from the various recommendation posts in the last 10 days. Data is optimized as best as I could to remove multiple recommendations from the same usernames as to not double count someone trying to pump certain stocks for some reason. Here's the list of top 30 recommendations ranked by # of mentions.

• 1 RKLB

• 2 ASTS

• 3 AMZN

• 4 NBIS

• 5 GOOGL

• 6 RDDT

• 7 MU

• 8 SOFI

• 9 POET

• 10 AMD

• 11 IREN

• 12 HOOD

• 13 RIVN

• 14 NVDA

• 15 ONDS

• 16 LUNR

• 17 APLD

• 18 TSLA

• 19 PLTR

• 20 META

• 21 NVO

• 22 AVGO

• 23 PATH

• 24 PL

• 25 NFLX

• 26 OPEN

• 27 ANIC

• 28 TMC

• 29 FNMA

• 30 UBER

For those that are interesting, the r/stocks specific list had HOOD and NVDA in the top 10 instead of POET and MU and had some slight differences at the end of the top 30 but in general, wasn't that much different.

MSFT: It's my top pick. Azure is undervalued, Copilot will raise prices in July, and enterprise AI is shifting from testing to full deployment this is the most certain bet. But can $470 billion in Capex translate into profits?

META: Acquiring Manus AI and a 26% boost in AI advertising revenue are solid moves. But Reality Labs lost $4.4 billion in Q1, and Capex is accelerating significantly ahead of 2025. Is this investing in the future or just passing the buck?

TSM: I feel it's the most stable. 72% market share, 2nm premium of 10-20%, CoWoS capacity up 66% and fully booked.

But watch out for a major pitfall in 2026: midterm election year.

Historical data is clear: midterm election years average a 10% pullback, with Q2-Q3 being the most dangerous.

Which stocks are you bullish on for 2026? Care to share your thoughts?

What stock will 2026 belong to ?

2025 was Alphabet up some 62% YTD & if you bought during April lows you could’ve gotten 100%, driven by strong cloud growth, Gemini, and Youtube ad subscription. I got in at $250 & still got up 30%.

What will be your go to & why ?

• On Tuesday, Deutsche Bank set a year-end 2026 price target of 8,000 with double-digit returns in the Mid-Teens.

• Deutsche Bank's equities strategy team stated, "In 2026, we see robust earnings growth and equity valuations remaining elevated."

• JPMorgan's target is 7,500 to >8,000. JPMorgan expects two additional rate cuts before the central bank pauses.

• HSBC's 2026 target is 7,500

• JPMorgan and HSBC predict that the AI investment cycle will continue to support earnings.

• Wells Fargo targeted 7,800. It sees the AI boom past periods of tech-led growth with concern of a possible bubble. However, policy and liquidity should provide support into the midterm election cycle, with the market becoming increasingly intertwined with the broader economy.

• Morgan Stanley targeted 7,800 with their strategist calling for a "New Bull Market" characterized by the continuation of earnings strength and policy support into next year.

• For a near-term prediction. Tom Lee, Chairman of BMNR, predicts a 2025 EOY target of 7,000 to 7,500.

• CME FedWatch is currently predicting an 84.9% chance of a 25 BP cut in the next Fed Meeting to be held on Dec. 9th and 10th.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-streets-2026-forecasts-are-rolling-in--and-some-see-the-sp-500-hitting-8000-110002501.html

I’m working on building a more focused stock watchlist for 2026 and would love to hear detailed input from people who follow individual names and sectors closely.

A few things I’m especially interested in:

• Which specific stocks are you most bullish on for 2026, and what key catalysts are you watching (earnings growth, AI adoption, new products, regulatory tailwinds, etc.)?​

• Do you see more opportunity in large-cap “quality” names (big tech, financials, healthcare) or in smaller, higher-risk growth plays? Why?​

• How much of your 2026 thesis is macro-driven (rates, inflation, recession/soft landing) versus company-specific fundamentals?​

• For AI/tech picks specifically, what gives your favorites a durable edge versus competitors (moat, data, ecosystem, cost advantage)?​

If you’re willing, please share your answer in this format so it’s easier for everyone to read and research:

• Ticker:

• Sector/Theme: (e.g., AI, semis, financials, healthcare, energy, etc.)​

• Time horizon: (Are you thinking mainly about 2026, or 2026 and beyond?)​

• Investment thesis (3–5 sentences): Why this stock over others in the same space? What needs to go right? What are the main risks?​

• Position sizing / conviction level: Is this a small speculative bet or a core holding for you?

As we all know, 2025 has been a great year for equities yet again, with major indices significantly outpacing historic gains. Personally, as far as an AI bubble is concerned, the market still has legs to run -- and empirical as this is, I don't think we'll have a crash when everyone has a crash at the back of their mind. Here's my current portfolio weights, how I'll be reallocating for the new year, and my predictions on how each will move! I'll be deleting my trading apps once the new year starts due to other commitments and come back to this post at the end of next year :)

NVDA - 17%
Nvidia continues to be my largest holding. There is significant overlap with my ETFs, but it was and continues to be a long hold for me which I'm comfortable having overweight. Doubt we will see 30+% gains after such a huge run-up though, although a 20% gain wouldn't surprise me.

QQQ - 16%

I've unfortunately been holding QQQ from a time I didn't realise there were alternatives (QQQM) with much lower expense ratios. Anyway, doesn't make sense for me to sell and buy back, but just a note for beginners. Mag 7 propelled it to 20+% gains this year, I'm predicting a more conservative but evenly distributed 12% gain in 2026, supported by more mid caps.

VOO - 15%

Essentially the same thing as QQQ but with slightly less tech. Predicting a healthy 9% as tech continues to outpace other sectors.

AAPL - 11%

The Vision Pro hasn't seen much success yet, and I think it's very much a work in progress especially given the extremely high price point. However, with Apple regaining its spot as the top smartphone manufacturer and likely releasing a foldable phone next year, I think it'll continue to see revenue growth. Predicting a 16% upside.

META - 9%

Great to see that Metaverse expenditure is being cut, hope to see more of that in the coming year. While Meta AI is one of the worst AIs out there now, I don't think it'll be difficult for them to improve their model seeing how quickly Gemini has caught up with ChatGPT. As far as I'm concerned, the core advertising business continues to be a solid model and Instagram is still growing in terms of MAUs and average usage. Share price has been relatively shaky this year, but I think it will deliver more stable shareholder returns of 18%.

VT - 7%

Going to continue DCAing into VT, likely will be my top holding before the start of the new year. Non-US markets outperformed in the first half of 2025 but I don't have enough conviction to go into VXUS. Assuming global markets do better than the US, I'm projecting 11% upside.

XLU - 6%

My only defensive holding in utilities. Being capital-intensive, utilities should benefit greatly from a low-rate environment and having some exposure marginally reduces my drawdown risk. Looking to add on dips to increase holding as well. Don’t expect big gains, at most 8%, just on pace with the overall market.

DUOL - 5%

One of my only two high-risk plays. Down from highs over 540 this year, share price has begun to consolidate. The CEO mentioned in the Q3 earnings call that they are prioritising long-term user growth and teaching quality which was taken negatively by the market, but this is a good long-term outlook. With a 34% 3-5 year projected EPS growth rate, I expect the market to revalue the company more optimistically with a 32% gain.

ANET - 3%

Last but not least, my smallest holding (for now). My long-term AI data centre play that has a lot more upside than the big names have. Quite a volatile stock that has a high beta especially in tech downturns, but with the prospect of a continue, albeit slowing bull market, I believe renewed data centre investment will propel sales and earnings growth. My guess is 35%, and I will be adding ANET/VRT on dips close to their 50MA.

Let me know what you guys think about my predictions!

For several Decembers we've pinned a prediction post to the top of the sub for a few weeks. Use this to make some predictions for 2026. Here's the 2025 predictions post - who do you think did best?

A few people did well with a lot of their predictions, but everyone also got a few things wrong. u/TemetN & u/omalhautCalliclea scored a lot more hits than misses.

Make some predictions here, and we can revisit them in late 2026 to see who did best.

Hi all,

Curious to hear what everyone’s thinking for 2026 and beyond. A bunch of outlook reports are out, including Vanguard’s latest (VEMO 2026):

Vanguard VEMO 2026 Report: https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf/isg_vemo_2026.pdf

Dummary from report: Global diversification remains key, US large-cap growth is expected to have lower long-term returns, and they favor Fixed Income, US Value, and Non-US Developed Markets over the next 5–10 years.

My Take & Plan:- I’m all about diversification and the “VT and Chill” approachit fits nicely with most long-term outlooks and I sleep well at night with it. My investments is and keeps being:

Core: VT (Vanguard Total World Stock ETF) – sticking with it as my main holding.

Small Tilt: A bit into growth/tech through the nasdaq and BTC, but VT remains the core. I reduced both tilts considerably and increased the VT base.

Discussion Points

Is Vanguard’s latest outlook/other major inestment firms' outlooks changing how you’re thinking about 2026?

Would love to hear your thoughts!