The resilience of the current price of equities/S&P 500 index, when compared to the price movement and market sentiment in 2022 seems quite surprising.

We had a crash in 2022, mainly in Tech companies. In hindsight, it was considered to be mainly caused by interest rate rises, lay-offs in the tech sector, Big Tech Antitrust Investigations in the USA, Europe and, I think even in China (Jack Ma becoming absent from public view for a little while).

Yet, between Jan 2022 (Shiller CAPE just under 37) and Oct 2022 (Shiller CAPE around 27) the S&P500 fell by 23% or so (Meta fell by around 70%, and was a bargain), and even Berkshire fell by around 16% or similar (to demonstrate that the price drop was wide spread and even reached 'non-tech' companies). So you can see from this picture, that the rationale for the pessimism was very concentrated, and not wide spread across various areas of the local or global economies, even though the price drops were.

Looking back at that, even when experiencing it at the time, IMO nothing had fundamentally changed; the Tech companies' products would still be used by billions of people (even if they were broken up), they were still going to generate revenues and profits, have high margins and there was no real recession or fears of one that I can remember. No concerns about the government, or the SEC or any other core organisation. No issues with reduction in consumer demand etc. So, overall, it was just this one tech related issue (as perceived by market participants, maybe a little bit of interest rates thrown in), and yet, the market shed 23% in 10 months or so.

On the other hand, the concerns that people seem to be having now are numerous, varied, disparate and fundamental.

Things people have talked about with regards to the USA now, most, not all, of which were not remotely concerning in 2022:

1. Market is priced quite high, maybe overvalued - S&P 500 Shiller CAPE of just under 38 in Jan 2025, and currently probably around 33. 60% of the global stock market cap as presented by MSCI? vs 25% or so of Global GDP. For context, historical average of CAPE ratio is around 17.

2. It took 7 months for the S&P 500 to drop 19% in 2022, in 2025 it did that under 2 months (before recovering some), so that is a much sharper fall than in 2022.

3. Concerns about Tariffs and Trade wars and its impact on consumer spending.

4. Effect of the above on inflation, which was just about to be gotten under control.

5. Businesses cooling off from investments due to the chaotic and unpredictable environment.

6. Unemployment at historical lows in USA, that means Fed might be limited in what they can do with lowering rates.

7. Spooked bond market and rising yields due to US Govt Debt sell off.

8. Concerns about insider trading and/or market manipulation by the administration and those who are close to it.

9. Concerns about the competency of the current US administration (handling of Signal Chat leaks, Peter Navarro qualifications or lack thereof and the bizarre Tariff formula, $Trump and $Melania kript0 pump and dump, DOGE handling or lay-offs, among many other things).

10. American reputation and brand deterioration amongst its close allies and trading partners.

11. Concerns about whether laws are being applied with as much integrity as they used to be and equally for the rich and the average person, resident citizens vs those on Visas etc.

There may be other things which I may have missed. (I haven't mentioned the many 'little issues', like Gabbard declaring her residency in Texas and voting in Hawaii etc. etc.)

So, it appears that there are far more, wide ranging, diverse, and fundamental reasons to be concerned and pessimistic now about the future and market prices, than there were in 2022, and yet the market seems more optimistic than it should be, based purely on how much it has dropped when compared to 2022, at least until now.

Is that a fair take?

Should there be more pessimism as expressed in the price drops of equity markets, than has occurred thus far? Perhaps there is pessimism in the mainstream discourse but it doesn't appear to be reflected in the market prices to the same degree.

I remember 2008 vaguely. I wasn’t invested in the markets and I didn’t have a property. But I had friends on 5% mortgages and I recall the hype. I didn’t know about CDOs. I read about it all after it happened. But the point I’m making is that back then it was just normal that you bought a house on a nothing mortgage.

Now I see a similar normal and it’s DCA. DCA on the scale that it exists at now and the ease with which we can pop as much as we want in one go into equities is unprecedented.

The market hasn’t truly crashed since easy trading platforms emerged. In 2008 it wasn’t like anyone with ID could just jump on Robinhood or any of the dozen trading platforms that literally make or lose you money in 3 seconds. That meant we couldn’t all obsessively buy dips and keep on DCAing.

Same with the dot com crash.

The big hedge funds and HFT desks are fine with those the market staying up - they trade with thin liquidity mainly - and have been withdrawing huge amounts since late 2024. They make money on derivatives sold to retail through mechanical processes and also make money the tiny price differentials in trades. The big money has no incentive to let any collapse happen in the market until there really is just about nothing underneath but they get that information clearly before most retail.

Seeking Feedback on My $100K Market Crash Plan: Insights Welcome!

I’ve analyzed SPY, GLD, Bitcoin, and M7 returns over the last decade, including Average Annual Returns (AAR) and 12-month post-COVID dip performance. According to my analysis, 12 months after a market crash, my returns could range between 24% and 83%.

Bitcoin rate of return is adjusted. PS: I know timing the market isn’t realistic—just looking for advice on my approach!

⸻

Portfolio Allocation and Performance Analysis

Initial Investment: $100,000 Focus: Comparing average annual returns (AAR) over the last 10 years and performance 12 months post-COVID (March 2020–March 2021)

⸻

Investment Categories

| Category | Investment | Actual % | Target % | AAR (10 Yr) | ARR (10 Yr Return) | 12M Post-COVID % | Return (12M Post-COVID) | |————————|——————|—————|—————|——————|——————————|—————————|————————————| | DCurrency | $20,000 | 20% | 20% | 57.00% | $11,400.00 | 100% | $20,000.00 | | ETFs | $30,000 | 30% | 30% | 13.30% | $3,990.00 | 62.50% | $18,750.00 | | Gold | $10,000 | 10% | 10% | 8.33% | $833.00 | 6% | $630.00 | | M7 (Tech) | $30,000 | 30% | 30% | 24.30% | $7,290.00 | 146% | $43,800.00 | | HYSA/Others | $10,000 | 10% | 10% | 3.50% | $350.00 | 3% | $300.00 |

Total 10-Year AAR Return: $23,863.00 Total Return 12M Post-COVID: $83,480.00 Post-COVID Return Rate: 83%

⸻

Important Market Dates • FED Meetings • Tariff Reactions • GDP, Inflation, Employment • Earnings Season

⸻

Breakdown of Asset Classes

ETFs: • SCHD, VOO, QQQ, BRKB.B, SMH, VTI, VT

DCurrency: • Bitcoin, Ethereum

Gold: • GLD, Physical

M7 (Tech Giants): • MSFT, GOOG, NVDA, AMZN, META, AAPL, TSLA

Other Sectors / Thematic Stocks: • Flying Cars: ARCHR, JOBY • Semiconductors: TSMC, AVGO • Retail: Nike, LULU • Quantum: QBTS, RGTI, IONQ, IBM, TER, QUBT • AI Defense: PLTR • Consumer Stocks: Costco, Walmart, Target • Streaming: Netflix • Food: Starbucks, CAVA, Chipotle • Investment Platforms: Robinhood, Coinbase • Social: Reddit • Manufacturing: [Suggestions welcome] • Chips: INTL, AMD • Pharma: Eli Lilly, Pfizer • Payments: Visa, Mastercard, Amex, Discover • Healthcare: United Health • Energy: OKLO, CCJ

⸻

Would love feedback, allocation tips, or ideas on overlooked sectors/stocks. Thanks in Advance!!

All these outlets are copying the same story with the same headline. If you actually read the article instead of just assuming he thinks the markets will do well, it's all about his never making public predictions in the first place. Considering most people just read headlines, how does this affect the average retail investor? lol. You could instead make the subject "Why Warren Buffett isn't Predicting the Stock Market Will Do Well in 2025" and it would mean the SAME EXACT THING.

One simple explanation

With all of the evidence that Buffett is decidedly bearish about the stock market, why isn't he predicting a crash in 2025? There's one simple explanation: The legendary investor avoids making stock market predictions at all.

In his 1992 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Buffett wrote:

We've long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good. Even now, Charlie [Buffett's longtime business partner Charlie Munger, who died in 2023] and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children.

News all over has said market crash everywhere. Are you buying more if there is a crash, selling, or buying the same as usual

I'm leaning towards yes we are for crash/heavy correction.
Unsure whether to:
i) Sell all stocks except 1, and put it all into that Oil co thats already quite down
ii) Keep my tech positions and keep cash for fall
iii) Keep my tech positions and just invest cash into Oil co

Warren B has record high cash.

What are your expectations for 2025 stock markets?

I’m worried about a global bear market. Too many uncertainties around the world.

Chinese real estate market is increasingly becoming problem. Many experts believe the Chinese government intervention would not be enough.

Germany and France both of them are going through economic and political turmoil. Some expect Germany would go into recession.

South Korea and Japan’s currencies are plummeting. Political disaster going on in South Korea. Their real estate markets are getting worse as well.

The list goes on.

Anybody can cheer me up?

The S&P 500 hit its 38th record of 2025 yesterday. Despite all the “it can’t possibly go higher” or “the AI bubble will burst imminently” or “tariffs will destroy the market” … that was wrong 38 times (so far!) this year. Don’t sit out and miss the gains. Yes, sometimes it will go down. But the market tends to go up.

When has this not been a risk, it's why the economy acts as a ratchet, going up slow but down fast. But 2025 seems particularly risky IMO because of the valuations, on well, everything. Stocks, real estate, crypto, gov't debt. None of them on their own pose any catastrophic problems in isolation, but what happens to all of them together when there's a hiccup?

There's an article in the Economics forum about commercial real estate woes. By itself it's not the end of the world, but with the gov't debt where it's at, dropping fed rates back to 0 with bank failures won't have the same effect cause bond vigilantes will ramp up the 10 year. If stocks fall, what happens to home prices when they are both at all time highs? In 2008 they both went down. What if stocks fall then crypto freaks then stocks fall more? What is this going to do to AI if funding slows? What if they all fall a little bit and that cycle repeats? The biggest safegap seems to be rich people holding a ton of cash, but they aren't necessarily going to 'catch a falling knife'.

To me, the most insulated assets to protect for this seem to be international equity. Prices are comparatively low lessening the air gap and in an actively deglobalizing world the correlation should be minimizing. Like if the US has a mini meltdown, South Africa should be chugging along ok, and vice versa.

I wrote this last night, and I wanted to wait until the end of the day to confirm my thesis. Today, the Nasdaq ended at +333.14 on nothing except Fed saying that they will turn on the printing machine, which will devalue the dollar even more and send inflation to the moon. Everything below was my thought process last night. Additionally, the post below really helps explain why we're in deep trouble, but all of the retailers are focused on the stock market, and BlackRock and JPMorgan are telling us that we're in a recession (Stagflation).

https://www.reddit.com/r/WallStreetbetsELITE/comments/1jx4qr9/the_bond_market_crisis_explained_for_you_regards/

As I sit here watching the Nasdaq futures spike up 288 points, I can’t help but feel uneasy. With the combination of tariffs, an escalating trade war narrative, and unsettling movements in the bond market—particularly the 10-year and 30-year yields—it’s hard not to see this as a potential prelude to a market crash or at the very least, the beginning of a bear market. While nothing is ever certain in the markets, the recent behavior we’ve been witnessing isn’t just noise—it’s a glaring signal that something is fundamentally off.

When the Nasdaq starts swinging 500 points or more in either direction for several consecutive days, that level of volatility is not just abnormal—it’s a red flag for deeper market instability. This pattern often precedes or accompanies systemic crises and tends to be driven by a combination of macroeconomic disruption, loss of confidence, and major repositioning by institutional investors.

There are typically two major factors that contribute to such extreme and sustained volatility.

First, extreme volatility reflects a market grappling with uncertainty, crisis, or both. Markets do not move wildly without cause. These kinds of large, daily price swings often indicate that investors are trying to price in the unpredictable—be it a geopolitical threat, economic policy shifts, or a financial system under pressure.

What’s especially concerning now is that we’re not dealing with just one variable—we’re contending with all of them. The current economic backdrop includes unresolved trade tensions, shifting policy (playing chicken with a country that had no problem killing 40-80 million of its citizens), and geopolitical conflicts with unclear outcomes. On top of that, corporate earnings season has revealed a growing sense of uncertainty within companies themselves. A number of major firms have stopped issuing forward guidance, signaling that even CEOs and CFOs are unsure about what lies ahead. One of the most notable examples was Target, which essentially admitted, “We don’t know.” When corporate leadership starts to lose visibility, that lack of confidence trickles down through the markets.

The second driver is institutional repositioning. When large funds start rapidly rotating out of certain sectors—most commonly tech and growth—and into safer or more defensive holdings, the size of those movements alone can send markets soaring or tumbling. In addition to this rotation, institutions may begin to hedge more aggressively or unwind leveraged positions, creating massive capital flows that can spike volatility. This is why we're seeing large green and red days for no reason.

Interestingly, several articles have surfaced this past week discussing these very moves—rotations, de-risking, liquidity tightening—but I initially dismissed them as overblown headlines. In hindsight, I think they were onto something, and I wish I had saved those links for reference. The market may be telling us more than we realized.

These patterns of extreme volatility aren’t unprecedented. In fact, we’ve seen them during some of the most turbulent periods in recent history. Two notable examples are the 2008 Financial Crisis and the COVID Crash of 2020.

During the 2008 collapse, from September 15 to late November, the market experienced around 30–40 trading days of repeated 500+ point swings in the Nasdaq. Some notable days include:

• October 13, 2008: +11.8%

• October 15, 2008: -8.5%

• October 16, 2008: +5.5%

These weren’t isolated events—they represented a market that was fundamentally broken and trying to reprice risk in real time.

The COVID Crash followed a similar pattern. From February 20 to March 23, 2020, the Nasdaq saw around 23 trading days of violent swings:

• March 12, 2020: -9.4%

• March 13, 2020: +9.3%

• March 16, 2020: -12.3%

• March 17, 2020: +6.2%

In both cases, the VIX (Volatility Index) spiked sharply and remained elevated for weeks. Interestingly, we’re seeing similar VIX activity this week—bouncing up and down erratically—yet another clue that something deeper may be brewing beneath the surface.

Markets are complex and unpredictable, but they also follow patterns. When you see repeated, outsized swings like we’re witnessing now, history tells us it’s rarely a coincidence. It’s often a sign that the system is under stress and that market participants—both retail and institutional—are struggling to price in risk accurately. Whether we’re on the cusp of another crash or entering a turbulent bear market, the warning signs are flashing.

This isn't normal.

As I am rereading this, CNBC is reporting that retailers are providing exit liquidity for institution to exit.

Retail investors are running head first into this topsy-turvy market Retail investors are running head first into this topsy-turvy market

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/10/retail-investors-are-running-head-first-into-this-topsy-turvy-market.html

The current problems that we have are

1. Bond market crisis

2. Stagflation scenario

3. Geopolitical threat

4. Economic policy shifts

5. Mortgage rates surge over 7% as tariffs hit bond market. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/11/mortgage-rates-surge-tariffs-bond-market.html

The money printer will make this worse. Lowering the rate will make it worse. Increasing the rate will make it worse. There is no easy way out of this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9c-DkBFS3w

Description:

Stock prices reflect investors’ expectations about the future earnings and risk of the companies they invest in. When expectations or risk change, due to something like nonsensical sweeping tariffs, stock prices can change, and they can change quickly and dramatically.

Falling stock prices do not mean that the market is broken or that the world is ending; they are expected from time to time, and their inevitability should be built into every investment plan.

I’ve been waiting on the sidelines to load up on cheap blue chip companies. Here’s how I plan to allocate my portfolio, any thoughts?

Orcl: 15% Potential contender to buy tik tok, data giant and huge demand for data centers with AI, cash flow machine

Cava: 15% Huge demand for healthy food, very popular, lots of growth and amazing tasting food. Could be the next chipotle

Hood (if cheaper):5% I use it to trade, user friendly, large user base growing fast, mostly young users with huge potential to grow deposits in the future.

Smh: 15% Semiconductor ETF, Must get into semiconductors they will lead the AI boom.

Meta (@580): 15% Cashflow machine. Huge user base billions of people. If tik tok ban sticks, insta reels will get a boost.

NBIS: 2.5% Risky data center play. Huge cash pile and massive demand. Solid team with proven execution.

Amzn (@$188): 15% Undervalued right now, use it all the time. AWS will thrive with AI. Amazing company will be around for years.

AMD: 2.5% They’re lagging NVDA, overall risky but they will still grow from AI and could one day develop something to dethrone NVDA. Hopefully they don’t end up like INTC

TSMC: 2.5% The world’s Fab producer- selling shovels to semiconductor boom. I would have a larger allocation but geopolitical risk is large given china has outright said they will invade Taiwan.

ADBE: 2.5% Strong cashflow, wide moat, no other software like it, only getting better with AI integration. Figma acquisition protects moat.

VGT: 3.75% Overall investing in tech as a whole, low risk etf.

MSFT 3.75% Their monopoly with teams and the whole Microsoft ecosystem is extremely sticky. And their stake in open AI has allowed them to integrate all their products with AI like co pilots. AI will only improve and MSFT will be the first to benefit from it.

LUCK:5% Risky consumer discretionary if recession occurs. Large debt load. Their bowling alleys have strong demand and it’s a stable business in good times with a lot of real estate assets. In a few years cash flow will cover debt and this should appreciate nicely + they pay a dividend

I’m sure it is the question on everyone’s mind, and while I am no fortune teller, I’d like to share few thoughts on the subject:

1. Current policy of the Trump administration is completely misguided, confused and, if continued, will inevitably lead to a major crash. Not just a market crash, but an economy crash. US is not in a position to internalize all production; it can’t happen, it won’t happen. We can maybe strangle the market enough to get some of production back, at a great cost to the consumer and with huge sacrifice to the level of life. This is what almost every economist understands, and this is why almost no one believed this is their real goal. Most economists do not believe anyone can be that misguided on the implications, and therefore we looked at it as a “negotiation technique” rather than a policy. Unfortunately, it looks more and more like this IS a policy. If so, markets will undoubtedly exert more and more pressure on the government, as they already do. And the weakest point is not the equity market, but the bond market. There’s very little anyone can do if bond market begins to crumble, because any attempt to artificially support it by the Fed will lead to other problems.

2. If the plan is to hold negotiations, or if the plan is adjusted towards negotiations, we have a better chance to get out of it with minimal losses, but even then market crash is still a real possibility. First of all, trust in US government is already damaged, and it’s not coming back, not until the next administration, if ever. There are moves being made now by the major players, and they will not be reversed. It will become manifest in the economy weeks and months from now, affecting interest rates and unemployment levels. Nothing anyone can do to reverse this. Second, markets were overpriced even before the current madness, but there was a general belief they will hold despite common sense, since there was no particular reason for them to go down. Well, now they did go down. That logic no longer works. The boat has sailed, it’s not coming back to port. Even a complete, 100% reversal of this misguided policy is not going to bring us back to the situation before the Second Fools’ Day (also known as “Liberation from common sense” day).

3. My personal strategy now is to shift everything into European bonds and inflation protected securities, as those are safest assets. I would not invest into stocks or bonds until the market has settled. It will probably take months, if not years, to see full effects. I would not keep too much $ cash either, because of the possibility that bank accounts will be frozen and exchange rates drop to the point that up to 50% of US dollar value could be wiped out. FDIC insures nominal amount, not a real value. If you want to keep cash - look into a basket of currencies, including Swiss frank, Euro and Pound. Best if it’s held in a foreign bank, although there are problems with opening and holding foreign bank accounts for most people.

This is my analysis. Feel free to disagree.

First of all, I don’t want to be misunderstood. This heat map is weekly that it reflects closing prices from Mar. 7 to Mar. 14. This week, 🔷 Apple dropped more than 10%. 🔷 Nvidia surged nearly 8%. 🔷 Intel had a strong performance after announcing a new CEO and gaining over 16% in a week.

Overall, this week was negative.

Mar. 7, 2025 Closes, 🔷 S&P500: 5,770.20 🔷 Nasdaq: 18,196.22 🔷 DJI: 42,801.72

Mar. 14, 2025 Closes, 🔷 S&P500: 5,638.94 (-2.27%) 🔷 Nasdaq: 17,754.09 (-2.37%) 🔷 DJI: 41,488.19 (-3.16%)

Day-by-Day Standouts; Monday: Selling pressure was extremely strong. The Nasdaq dropped 727 points. It's biggest single-day decline since COVID crash on Mar. 16, 2020. 🔴 Tuesday: A quiet day. The stock market awaited key data releases on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. But, it's slightly negative. 🔴 Wednesday: CPI was released. The monthly estimate was 0.3%, but it came to 0.2%. The yearly estimate was 2.9%, but it dropped to 2.8%. This was perfect for stock market, because it's increased expectations of a rate cut. As a result, stock markets are surged more than 1%. 🟢 Tuesday: After CPI, PPI also came in below estimates. Core PPI turned negative (-0.1%) and the yearly dropped from 3.6% to 3.4%. However, tariff concerns created pressure and then the stock market dropped 2%. 🔴 Friday: The government shutdown reduced fears. The stock market jumped 2% to close the week on a strong. 🟢

S&P500 hit 6147 on February 19, 2025, but has now dropped to 5,638.94. The lowest level at this week was 5,504.65. That means, the index dropped slight more than 10%. S&P500 is below the 200-day EMA.

If we can get 2 day consecutive positive close, some of money from other assets like gold may join the game into the stock market. For now, economic data supports the stock market, but we shouldn't forget that President Trump’s is more important than all the data and technical indicators.

How was your week? Are you optimistic or feeling a bit depressed? What do you think for previous and next week?

????

The Nasdaq dropped 970 points on March 16, 2020. Later, on December 18, 2024, it dropped 715 points. Today's drop of 727 points is passing Dec. 18.

We nearly hit 900 points down during the day but recovered before the close. I didn’t expect such an exaggerated loss. The S&P 500 peaked at 6,150 on Feb. 19 and now fallen to 6,611. It's nearly 9% percent drop in just 20 days. Tariff concerns have fired and then recession fears pushing markets lower.

On February 25, I invested one-third of my cash at the 100-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average). My next target was the 200-day EMA at 5,710. Today, I made my final purchase at the 50-week EMA at 5,635. I completed to planned stock market buys. I’ll still continue with monthly purchases to stay in the game.

What’s your take on the current situation?