Everyone is starting to ask what next year’s market outlook will be. So let’s study Wall Street’s latest New Year forecasts together. The market has really been wild lately. One minute everyone is celebrating Nvidia’s earnings, thinking tech stocks can keep rising for another ten years, and the next minute the market suddenly tanks and big players dump Nvidia to rotate into Google. The AI ​​boom has clearly entered its second half.

So the question is: how long can this wave last? After this round of Christmas gains, will next year keep taking off or fall flat? Every year end, those suit-and-tie Wall Street elites start brainstorming and draw a road map for the next year. This year, I looked through everything almost all of them are bullish. Eternal bull market.

The most optimistic one is Deutsche Bank. They boldly claim the S&P 500 could reach 8000 points next year, nearly a 20% increase. Keep in mind, the S&P has already risen more than 10% this year, and they still want more. Why so optimistic? It basically comes down to two words: Artificial Intelligence.

AI is no longer just a tech buzzword. It has become the engine of the entire capital market. Nvidia, Microsoft, Google these giants are throwing insane amounts of money into AI R&D. Capital expenditure is at record highs. Deutsche Bank believes AI investment and adoption will dominate market sentiment next year and could even spark a true productivity revolution.

But here’s the problem the S&P 500 is now trading at a 25x P/E ratio, while the historical average is just above 15. Isn’t that expensive? It definitely is. But Deutsche Bank insists that even if valuations don’t expand further, they can stay high. Why? Because supply and demand for stocks are extremely strong. Money is still flowing into equities, corporate buybacks haven’t stopped, and earnings expectations are rising. They even predict that in In 2026, EPS could reach $320.

Interestingly, Morgan Stanley is also bullish, targeting 7800 points, yet they didn’t buy the Magnificent Seven. Their chief strategist Wilson thinks tech stocks might fall alongside the broader market. They prefer small caps, consumer discretionary, healthcare, financials, and industrials. Why? Because they see a key signal earnings expectations are shifting from tech to other sectors, and consumer spending is moving from entertainment to physical goods. This suggests the economy might be entering a new phase.

More importantly, Morgan Stanley is betting that the Fed will cut rates early. The logic is simple: if employment weakens, liquidity tightens, and risk assets fall, Powell won’t be able to hold he’ll have to pump liquidity back into the market. Once rates turn down, the valuation ceiling opens again.

HSBC, Barclays, and UBS all agree. HSBC even said: who cares if there’s a bubble? The dot-com bubble also rose for three to five years just get on the ride first. UBS even drew a bull scenario where the S&P hits 8400. But they also admit the market is shifting from tech dominance to broader sector participation. Capital spending is no longer only on AI chips it’s spreading across more industries.

From my perspective, the U.S. market is still the top priority next year, but we shouldn’t be overly optimistic because it will be Trump’s second year in office. You might not know this, but historically, the second year of a U.S. presidential term especially midterm election years has been the weakest and most volatile for stocks.

In 2018, during Trump 1.0’s second year, the first half was great, then the market collapsed in the second half. The trade war began, tech stocks plunged, the VIX soared 70%, and even crypto and emerging markets crashed.

And now? The script looks nearly identical. Policies change every day. Tariffs can hit at any time. Even if the Supreme Court slows down tax hikes, the possibility alone is enough to make manufacturers, retailers, and exporters lose sleep.

Plus, the 2026 midterm elections are coming. Both parties will go all-out, meaning fiscal policy may freeze again, and market trust in the government will keep eroding.

What’s worse, sector divergence is even more extreme than in 2017. In the U.S., only AI related tech stocks are supporting the market. Materials, energy, real estate everything else is dropping. Europe isn’t much better. Finance and utilities barely hold up while others slump.

When only a few assets are booming and most are stagnant, it signals a fragile market. If tech stocks cool off, the entire market could lose momentum instantly.

So next year, political cycles, policy risks, and the pressure of converting AI hype into real profits these three mountains won’t disappear. Right now the market is pricing in aggressive rate cuts while also assuming a soft landing and continued earnings growth. Wanting everything at once often ends badly.

In my view, the script may look like this:

First half: AI momentum and liquidity expectations may push the market higher again.

Second half: As midterm elections approach, policy noise increases, earnings get disrupted, and volatility returns.

Whoever holds high valuation, low cash flow story stocks will be the most at risk.

With another year wrapping up, I’m curious how people here are thinking about next year.

What do you think will be the biggest drivers of returns by the end of 2026? Are you making any portfolio adjustments now based on those views?

It's going to be an interesting year for sure..lol.

Firstly, let me say I hate these over-done posts as much as the next person hah, but I did want to offer my insights as a 20+ year investor with both a long portfolio and an options portfolio that I generate a living income off of.

My long portfolio is currently 100% SGOV. Without overanalyzing or cherry picking, the simplest historic indicators show that market valuations right now are extremely rich, of the type that always proceeds a major correction.

Shiller PE nearing dot-com levels: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Trailing PE highest on record: https://worldperatio.com/index/sp-500/

Forward PE at a ceiling it only surpasses during major market crises: https://en.macromicro.me/series/20052/sp500-forward-pe-ratio

On top of that you have a flight to safety, gold, and a flight from risk, bitcoin, rounding out 2025 narratives.

However, despite this, I'm not actually bearish for 2026. There will be an come-uppance, we all know this, but I can see 2026 melting up another 5-10%.

This is because the single most influential variable the market has responded to in the last 15 years is liquidity, and apparently the biggest source of liquidity isn't jobs or GDP, but interest rates. This has driven the Main St vs. Wall St divide since 2008.

Now the US has an administration that is hell bent on lowering interest rates, regardless of any orthodox impetus to do this. Trump will be appointing a new Fed chair, and possibly more members, who will basically vote how he says. Not only that, but I could see this new chair making statements during any moderate 10% market correction that support QE and rescuing the market, meaning almost any red month will be a buy-the-dip type situation.

We also have a pending SCOTUS decision, possibly as soon as Jan 9th, that actually looks like it could undo tariffs, which I think would cause a rally in the S&P493.

You never know with someone like Trump at the handle, but it's hard for me to see any major negative catalysts for 2026, aside from 'concerns about valuations'. Maybe a single missed ER by nVidia will cause an unwind, or maybe global liquidity will begin to dry-up as most other OECD nations take more moderate monetary policies and more severe theories about the yen carry-trade show true.

I always play defensively as I live off my savings - I intend to stay in SGOV in my long portfolio - I'll take a safe 4.25% over a risky 8.5% any day of the week. For options, where I normally sell CSPs, I'll likely pursue more delta neutral strategies.

Everyone is starting to ask what next year’s market outlook will be. So let’s study Wall Street’s latest New Year forecasts together. The market has really been wild lately. One minute everyone is celebrating Nvidia’s earnings, thinking tech stocks can keep rising for another ten years, and the next minute the market suddenly tanks and big players dump Nvidia to rotate into Google. The AI ​​boom has clearly entered its second half.

So the question is: how long can this wave last? After this round of Christmas gains, will next year keep taking off or fall flat? Every year end, those suit-and-tie Wall Street elites start brainstorming and draw a road map for the next year. This year, I looked through everything almost all of them are bullish. Eternal bull market.

The most optimistic one is Deutsche Bank. They boldly claim the S&P 500 could reach 8000 points next year, nearly a 20% increase. Keep in mind, the S&P has already risen more than 10% this year, and they still want more. Why so optimistic? It basically comes down to two words: Artificial Intelligence.

AI is no longer just a tech buzzword. It has become the engine of the entire capital market. Nvidia, Microsoft, Google these giants are throwing insane amounts of money into AI R&D. Capital expenditure is at record highs. Deutsche Bank believes AI investment and adoption will dominate market sentiment next year and could even spark a true productivity revolution.

But here’s the problem the S&P 500 is now trading at a 25x P/E ratio, while the historical average is just above 15. Isn’t that expensive? It definitely is. But Deutsche Bank insists that even if valuations don’t expand further, they can stay high. Why? Because supply and demand for stocks are extremely strong. Money is still flowing into equities, corporate buybacks haven’t stopped, and earnings expectations are rising. They even predict that in In 2026, EPS could reach $320.

Interestingly, Morgan Stanley is also bullish, targeting 7800 points, yet they didn’t buy the Magnificent Seven. Their chief strategist Wilson thinks tech stocks might fall alongside the broader market. They prefer small caps, consumer discretionary, healthcare, financials, and industrials. Why? Because they see a key signal earnings expectations are shifting from tech to other sectors, and consumer spending is moving from entertainment to physical goods. This suggests the economy might be entering a new phase.

More importantly, Morgan Stanley is betting that the Fed will cut rates early. The logic is simple: if employment weakens, liquidity tightens, and risk assets fall, Powell won’t be able to hold he’ll have to pump liquidity back into the market. Once rates turn down, the valuation ceiling opens again.

HSBC, Barclays, and UBS all agree. HSBC even said: who cares if there’s a bubble? The dot-com bubble also rose for three to five years just get on the ride first. UBS even drew a bull scenario where the S&P hits 8400. But they also admit the market is shifting from tech dominance to broader sector participation. Capital spending is no longer only on AI chips it’s spreading across more industries.

From my perspective, the U.S. market is still the top priority next year, but we shouldn’t be overly optimistic because it will be Trump’s second year in office. You might not know this, but historically, the second year of a U.S. presidential term especially midterm election years has been the weakest and most volatile for stocks.

In 2018, during Trump 1.0’s second year, the first half was great, then the market collapsed in the second half. The trade war began, tech stocks plunged, the VIX soared 70%, and even crypto and emerging markets crashed.

And now? The script looks nearly identical. Policies change every day. Tariffs can hit at any time. Even if the Supreme Court slows down tax hikes, the possibility alone is enough to make manufacturers, retailers, and exporters lose sleep.

Plus, the 2026 midterm elections are coming. Both parties will go all-out, meaning fiscal policy may freeze again, and market trust in the government will keep eroding.

What’s worse, sector divergence is even more extreme than in 2017. In the U.S., only AI related tech stocks are supporting the market. Materials, energy, real estate everything else is dropping. Europe isn’t much better. Finance and utilities barely hold up while others slump.

When only a few assets are booming and most are stagnant, it signals a fragile market. If tech stocks cool off, the entire market could lose momentum instantly.

So next year, political cycles, policy risks, and the pressure of converting AI hype into real profits these three mountains won’t disappear. Right now the market is pricing in aggressive rate cuts while also assuming a soft landing and continued earnings growth. Wanting everything at once often ends badly.

In my view, the script may look like this:

First half: AI momentum and liquidity expectations may push the market higher again.

Second half: As midterm elections approach, policy noise increases, earnings get disrupted, and volatility returns.

Whoever holds high valuation, low cash flow story stocks will be the most at risk.

Is it really safe to invest right now when people like Peter Schiff and Michael Burry who both CORRECTLY PREDICTED THE 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS think that we will have a stock market crash in 2026?

Lowering interest rates in a hot economy with high and sticky inflation is bearish and most of the new investments by institutions & family offices appear to be in oversold defensive sectors. I’m genuinely concerned about 2026 with market driven by sentimental factors than technicals or fundamentals. Any insights?

Evidence Supporting a Potential 2026 Land-Driven Economic Crisis

Historical Cyclical Patterns

The 18-year real estate cycle theory has shown remarkable consistency throughout modern economic history:

• The 2008 housing crash + 18 years = 2026

• Previous major U.S. real estate crashes occurred in 1989-1990, 1973-1974, 1954, 1935 - showing this pattern holds

• Economist Fred Harrison accurately predicted both the 1990 recession and 2008 crash using this cycle theory

Current Land Value Surge

The Current Data Supporting a 2026 Land Price Crash

The evidence for a potential 2026 economic crisis triggered by land speculation is compelling:

1. Historical Cycle Analysis

• The 18-year real estate cycle theory shows remarkable consistency throughout history

• Previous major crashes occurred in 1989-1990, 1973-1974, 1954, 1935, and 2008

• If we count from the 2008 housing crash + 18 years = 2026

2. Surging Land Values Despite Economic Warning Signs

Land values have increased dramatically since 2020:

• Agricultural land values jumped 5% in 2024 alone, hitting a record $4,170 per acre

• Residential land prices have surged 82% from January 2020 to February 2025 in California

• Home price-to-income ratios have reached record highs, with the national average at 4.7, and states like Hawaii (9.1) and California (8.4) seeing extreme imbalances

3. Credit Conditions Enabling Speculation

• The Federal Reserve cut rates by 1 percentage point in 2024 (from 5.25-5.50% to 4.25-4.50%)

• This loosening of monetary policy is creating conditions similar to previous speculative cycles

• Further cuts are projected through 2025, potentially fueling more land speculation

4. Unaddressed Structural Issue

• The fundamental problem that I will leave down in the comments - lack of land value taxation - remains completely unaddressed

• Without this structural reform, there's nothing stopping the cycle from repeating again

• Current tax policies still encourage land speculation rather than productive use

5. Housing Affordability Crisis

• In 2022, the median home price was 5.6 times higher than median household income - the highest on record

• This ratio has worsened significantly since 2019, when it was just 4.1

• This disconnect between housing costs and incomes is precisely the kind of imbalance that precedes major corrections

My Assessment: Why 2026 Is Likely for a Crash

Looking at all this data together, I believe a 2026 land-driven crash is highly plausible. Here's why:

1. We're following the same pattern as previous cycles: The housing market recovered from 2008, entered a growth phase, and is now entering the speculative phase where prices detach from fundamentals.

2. The post-pandemic surge in land values matches historical pre-crash patterns: Just as speculation shifted from land to stocks before the Great Depression, we're seeing investment capital moving between asset classes now.

3. The price-to-income ratio is flashing warning signs: When housing becomes as disconnected from incomes as it is now, it signals an unsustainable bubble.

4. Monetary policy is enabling speculation: The Fed's rate cuts, while intended to support the economy, are creating conditions where speculative investment in land becomes more attractive.

5. The structural reform needed to prevent the cycle hasn't happened: Without land value taxation to capture the unearned value, there's nothing preventing the same cycle from repeating.

If Henry George's theory is correct - and the evidence suggests it is - we're approaching the peak of the land value cycle. The coming year could see further speculation before a significant correction in 2026, absent any major policy intervention.

As we all know, 2025 has been a great year for equities yet again, with major indices significantly outpacing historic gains. Personally, as far as an AI bubble is concerned, the market still has legs to run -- and empirical as this is, I don't think we'll have a crash when everyone has a crash at the back of their mind. Here's my current portfolio weights, how I'll be reallocating for the new year, and my predictions on how each will move! I'll be deleting my trading apps once the new year starts due to other commitments and come back to this post at the end of next year :)

NVDA - 17%
Nvidia continues to be my largest holding. There is significant overlap with my ETFs, but it was and continues to be a long hold for me which I'm comfortable having overweight. Doubt we will see 30+% gains after such a huge run-up though, although a 20% gain wouldn't surprise me.

QQQ - 16%

I've unfortunately been holding QQQ from a time I didn't realise there were alternatives (QQQM) with much lower expense ratios. Anyway, doesn't make sense for me to sell and buy back, but just a note for beginners. Mag 7 propelled it to 20+% gains this year, I'm predicting a more conservative but evenly distributed 12% gain in 2026, supported by more mid caps.

VOO - 15%

Essentially the same thing as QQQ but with slightly less tech. Predicting a healthy 9% as tech continues to outpace other sectors.

AAPL - 11%

The Vision Pro hasn't seen much success yet, and I think it's very much a work in progress especially given the extremely high price point. However, with Apple regaining its spot as the top smartphone manufacturer and likely releasing a foldable phone next year, I think it'll continue to see revenue growth. Predicting a 16% upside.

META - 9%

Great to see that Metaverse expenditure is being cut, hope to see more of that in the coming year. While Meta AI is one of the worst AIs out there now, I don't think it'll be difficult for them to improve their model seeing how quickly Gemini has caught up with ChatGPT. As far as I'm concerned, the core advertising business continues to be a solid model and Instagram is still growing in terms of MAUs and average usage. Share price has been relatively shaky this year, but I think it will deliver more stable shareholder returns of 18%.

VT - 7%

Going to continue DCAing into VT, likely will be my top holding before the start of the new year. Non-US markets outperformed in the first half of 2025 but I don't have enough conviction to go into VXUS. Assuming global markets do better than the US, I'm projecting 11% upside.

XLU - 6%

My only defensive holding in utilities. Being capital-intensive, utilities should benefit greatly from a low-rate environment and having some exposure marginally reduces my drawdown risk. Looking to add on dips to increase holding as well. Don’t expect big gains, at most 8%, just on pace with the overall market.

DUOL - 5%

One of my only two high-risk plays. Down from highs over 540 this year, share price has begun to consolidate. The CEO mentioned in the Q3 earnings call that they are prioritising long-term user growth and teaching quality which was taken negatively by the market, but this is a good long-term outlook. With a 34% 3-5 year projected EPS growth rate, I expect the market to revalue the company more optimistically with a 32% gain.

ANET - 3%

Last but not least, my smallest holding (for now). My long-term AI data centre play that has a lot more upside than the big names have. Quite a volatile stock that has a high beta especially in tech downturns, but with the prospect of a continue, albeit slowing bull market, I believe renewed data centre investment will propel sales and earnings growth. My guess is 35%, and I will be adding ANET/VRT on dips close to their 50MA.

Let me know what you guys think about my predictions!

2025 EPS for S&P 500 is estimated to be 263.44 S&P 500 at 6,941, the PE is 26.35.

2026 EPS is estimated to be 308.97 so 17.3% growth. Assuming 25x PE that makes S&P 500 at 7,724. At 20x PE then it's 6,179.

So assuming no black swan event, it's another good year for stocks!

Yes, PE is above the historical average of 20x. But S&P 500 is now 34% Technology. Plus operating margin is at all time highs at 14%. Might go higher if AI makes things more efficient.

That's all. Happy Holidays and New Year! Can't wait to lose more money next year 🥲

Reasons:

1. Statistically second year of presidency has been weak (eg 2018 and 2022). Most of the new admins policies have been introduced. So there aren't many new things to look forward to. (Tax cuts are done, most of the country deals are done)

2. Tariffs and deportations will cause costs to raise - In economics things take time to show up. All the money printed in 2020 caused a lot of inflation during 2021. Companies are absorbing costs now to be in the good books of potus but they might have to pass the costs some day. Decrease in farm workers will also cause price increase

3. Most of the AI announcements are already in place. OpenAI has announced a deal with every company I can think of. Most chip stocks are at elevated valuations. We can see market reaction was tepid for most AI players so far (Celestica, Astera, AMD, Qualcom)

4. Rate cut is the only positive catalyst left. But whether the later cuts will give same euphoria to market is doubtful. After initial few cuts future ones may not have same effect

5. We've had 3 years of double digit returns. Except during dot comm boom such a pattern has always been followed by a down year or a low percentage gain year

6. AI players are all doing the same thing. Unlike dot com boom where we had different types of websites AI players seem to be doing same stuff (LLM, Image or video gen, AI agent). Unless AI players keep showing new stuff market will lose interest by incremental tweaks to same stuff.

What are your thoughts?

For several Decembers we've pinned a prediction post to the top of the sub for a few weeks. Use this to make some predictions for 2026. Here's the 2025 predictions post - who do you think did best?

A few people did well with a lot of their predictions, but everyone also got a few things wrong. u/TemetN & u/omalhautCalliclea scored a lot more hits than misses.

Make some predictions here, and we can revisit them in late 2026 to see who did best.

Many believe the collapse is decades away. That’s not true. It’s likely only a year or two at most. Interest rates should start rising sharply soon.

Without low interest rates, the housing bubble collapses, and large numbers of companies and even nations — go bankrupt.

The most important market in the world is the U.S. 10‑year interest rate. The Fed no longer has control over it because the debt levels are so enormous. The market decides. If it rises too much the economy will collapse.

Artificial intelligence is accelerating the process. Even today, a large share of office jobs can be replaced by AI. These jobs are largely what prevent the housing bubble from imploding. As more people lose their jobs, it becomes harder to repay loans, and lenders will demand higher interest rates. That, in turn, can trigger a doom loop of rising unemployment and even higher rates.

This is very important to understand, and I don’t think politicians realize it. The market won’t wait until unemployment is high. Interest rates will be raised long before that. AI is therefore accelerating the collapse. The critical level for the 10-year is approximately 5–6%.

In order, my anxieties are job security then a "lost decade" of no growth in investments.

My job is not very secure right now and finding a new one will be tough, especially for same salary. Overall demand is down, salaries are down, offshoring is at peak, etc. I used to think it'd take me at most 2 months to find a new comparable job. Now who knows, 1 year?

Then of course there is all the talk of another lost decade. I think people often forget that we've had years and years of no appreciation. People will say, "but that's the perfect time to buy assets at lower valuation!" True, except if you don't have a job!

Are there other FI related anxieties that top your list for 2026 and beyond?

I’ve seen a lot of predictions about an economic crash (some people even said it would April 2024), but the big crash is coming by early 2026 and the tipping point will be massive cuts to social services like Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security. It depends on those cuts. The economy will limp along, but if/when those social program cuts happen, that’s when we're all screwed.

Why social service cuts? They prop up consumer spending and general economic stability. Millions of Americans rely on Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security just to get by. (Medicaid/CHIP alone covers about 79 million people as of 2024​ and Social Security supports ~73)

If funding gets slashed, a huge number of people will suddenly have less money to spend on groceries or essentials and that’s a direct hit to consumer spending, which is like 70% of our economy. On top of that, cuts to things like Medicaid/Medicare mean more people unable to afford healthcare which could leave them with medical debt or skipping care​.

States would hurt since they share the cost of these programs. States either have to fill the gap (blowing up their budgets) or cut services locally. It's really just less money flowing through local economies and more financial stress on families and state governments.

The economy is already under strain from multiple directions. We’ve been living in an economic “bubble” especially in the stock market. Valuations are wildly high by historical standards (the U.S. market is trading around 38 times earnings, which is in the 95th percentile of historical valuation levels​).

At some point that bubble could burst if investors get spooked. There's also corporate debt. Companies binged on cheap loans for years and now those debts are coming due in a high interest rate environment. We’re actually starting to see signs of trouble with corporate defaults jumping 80% in 2023 (153 companies defaulted vs 85 in 2022)​. A lot of firms have to refinance their bonds soon, and it’s going to be way more expensive so some might not survive that.

Commercial real estate is a ticking time bomb. Office buildings are sitting half-empty and their values have plummeted. Building owners are struggling to repay loans.

If landlords default, that puts banks (especially regional) in trouble and could tighten credit availability further. We’ve seen the cracks with some regional bank failures in 2023, partly because they didn’t manage risks well when interest rates rose. (Worth noting: even the Federal Reserve pointed to a 2018 deregulation rollback under Trump as one factor that made Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse more likely​. Basically, some safeguards were loosened and banks took on more risk than they should have.) So the financial system isn’t as solid as we’d like, and higher interest rates by the Fed (to fight inflation) are slowly pressing on the bruises of the economy.

Tariffs are essentialy taxes which translates into higher costs for businesses and consumers. It's that simple. Worse tariffs will cause higher prices or thinner margins which quite simply is not great for economic stability. Deregulation (not just banking, but environmental, etc.) might boost short-term profits but WILL cause long-term costs or instabilities (think of environmental cleanup costs and risky financial behavior).

We have a war in Ukraine that’s messing with energy and food markets, new conflicts popping up (the Middle East and oil prices), and general geopolitical rivalry (US vs China) which will affect supply chain uncertainties. Global instability means more risk of something big going wrong like a supply shock that could hit our economy at a vulnerable time.

So with all that as background, here’s how I see the timeline playing out:

Early 2025: The economy holds up. We don’t get the big crash yet. We avoid a real recession through 2025. Unemployment might tick up a bit but stays relatively low. Consumer spending might not be great but manages to keep going because people still have jobs and some savings. There is a political incentive to keep things looking good (I think?!). Maybe we see corporate defaults but nothing dramatic.

Mid 2025: Slowdown is noticeable. Higher interest rates will start biting harder. Consumer savings start running out if social services get cut quickly. Not full recession.

Late 2025: The recession hits. By late-2025, if there really are major budget cuts on social programs, those will start to be felt. Millions of people will have reduced benefits or lose coverage which translates to less spending in the economy pretty quickly. I see layoffs to increase. Businesses struggle. Rising unemployment, falling stock prices, credit getting tighter, perhaps some smaller banks failing or needing bailouts. Confidence would dive.

Early 2026: I predict we’ve crashed. It's a financial crisis or a really sharp economic contraction. The stock market bottoms out and big companies go bankrupt. Unemployment is bad. I’d expect at that point the government and Fed would scramble to intervene, maybe they'll wave around those Elon Musk $5000 to those who are worthy, but by then a lot of damage is done similar to how it felt in 2008.

So, why might this not happen? I’m open to the idea that I could be off-base or missing something. Maybe all the social service cuts won’t be as severe or won’t happen, or it will face political gridlock, or they get watered down. Maybe the economy could be more resilient than I expect like if the Fed manages a “soft landing” to bring down inflation without a major recession. Maybe it's also possible consumers and businesses adapt, but how?

What reasons are there to think the economy won’t crash by 2026? Maybe you think the timeline is wrong? I’m genuinely interested in seeing if this seems right.

Is it when retail are forced to sell their positions, even at a loss because they lack the funds to cover bills, etc?

So like recession times? Is it when unemployment rates are high? is it when disposable income is at its lowest? is it when people can't affford new triple A games? etc.