Everyone is starting to ask what next year’s market outlook will be. So let’s study Wall Street’s latest New Year forecasts together. The market has really been wild lately. One minute everyone is celebrating Nvidia’s earnings, thinking tech stocks can keep rising for another ten years, and the next minute the market suddenly tanks and big players dump Nvidia to rotate into Google. The AI ​​boom has clearly entered its second half.

So the question is: how long can this wave last? After this round of Christmas gains, will next year keep taking off or fall flat? Every year end, those suit-and-tie Wall Street elites start brainstorming and draw a road map for the next year. This year, I looked through everything almost all of them are bullish. Eternal bull market.

The most optimistic one is Deutsche Bank. They boldly claim the S&P 500 could reach 8000 points next year, nearly a 20% increase. Keep in mind, the S&P has already risen more than 10% this year, and they still want more. Why so optimistic? It basically comes down to two words: Artificial Intelligence.

AI is no longer just a tech buzzword. It has become the engine of the entire capital market. Nvidia, Microsoft, Google these giants are throwing insane amounts of money into AI R&D. Capital expenditure is at record highs. Deutsche Bank believes AI investment and adoption will dominate market sentiment next year and could even spark a true productivity revolution.

But here’s the problem the S&P 500 is now trading at a 25x P/E ratio, while the historical average is just above 15. Isn’t that expensive? It definitely is. But Deutsche Bank insists that even if valuations don’t expand further, they can stay high. Why? Because supply and demand for stocks are extremely strong. Money is still flowing into equities, corporate buybacks haven’t stopped, and earnings expectations are rising. They even predict that in In 2026, EPS could reach $320.

Interestingly, Morgan Stanley is also bullish, targeting 7800 points, yet they didn’t buy the Magnificent Seven. Their chief strategist Wilson thinks tech stocks might fall alongside the broader market. They prefer small caps, consumer discretionary, healthcare, financials, and industrials. Why? Because they see a key signal earnings expectations are shifting from tech to other sectors, and consumer spending is moving from entertainment to physical goods. This suggests the economy might be entering a new phase.

More importantly, Morgan Stanley is betting that the Fed will cut rates early. The logic is simple: if employment weakens, liquidity tightens, and risk assets fall, Powell won’t be able to hold he’ll have to pump liquidity back into the market. Once rates turn down, the valuation ceiling opens again.

HSBC, Barclays, and UBS all agree. HSBC even said: who cares if there’s a bubble? The dot-com bubble also rose for three to five years just get on the ride first. UBS even drew a bull scenario where the S&P hits 8400. But they also admit the market is shifting from tech dominance to broader sector participation. Capital spending is no longer only on AI chips it’s spreading across more industries.

From my perspective, the U.S. market is still the top priority next year, but we shouldn’t be overly optimistic because it will be Trump’s second year in office. You might not know this, but historically, the second year of a U.S. presidential term especially midterm election years has been the weakest and most volatile for stocks.

In 2018, during Trump 1.0’s second year, the first half was great, then the market collapsed in the second half. The trade war began, tech stocks plunged, the VIX soared 70%, and even crypto and emerging markets crashed.

And now? The script looks nearly identical. Policies change every day. Tariffs can hit at any time. Even if the Supreme Court slows down tax hikes, the possibility alone is enough to make manufacturers, retailers, and exporters lose sleep.

Plus, the 2026 midterm elections are coming. Both parties will go all-out, meaning fiscal policy may freeze again, and market trust in the government will keep eroding.

What’s worse, sector divergence is even more extreme than in 2017. In the U.S., only AI related tech stocks are supporting the market. Materials, energy, real estate everything else is dropping. Europe isn’t much better. Finance and utilities barely hold up while others slump.

When only a few assets are booming and most are stagnant, it signals a fragile market. If tech stocks cool off, the entire market could lose momentum instantly.

So next year, political cycles, policy risks, and the pressure of converting AI hype into real profits these three mountains won’t disappear. Right now the market is pricing in aggressive rate cuts while also assuming a soft landing and continued earnings growth. Wanting everything at once often ends badly.

In my view, the script may look like this:

First half: AI momentum and liquidity expectations may push the market higher again.

Second half: As midterm elections approach, policy noise increases, earnings get disrupted, and volatility returns.

Whoever holds high valuation, low cash flow story stocks will be the most at risk.

What is the consensus on what can happen with the stock market?

I am up about 9% since the beginning of the year. I shoot for 8-12% per year. if I get a CD at 5% or Robinhood 5% money market fund I can guarantee a return of 9+(10/12 * .05) = 13.16%.

Thoughts?

As we head into 2026, i see the stock market entering a phase of cautious optimism. Inflationary pressures have eased compared to the last two years, and central banks are signaling a more balanced stance. This creates room for value investors to look beyond defensive plays and start identifying sectors with sustainable growth. The broader market may still face volatility, but opportunities exist for those willing to dig into fundamentals.

For the first quarter of the new year, i expect strength in energy transition stocks (companies tied to renewables and grid infrastructure), semiconductors (driven by AI and data center demand), and healthcare innovators (particularly firms with strong pipelines in biotech). These areas combine resilience with long term tailwinds. I am also watching undervalued industrials that benefit from reshoring trends, as they could quietly outperform while the spotlight remains on tech.

One advantage of sticking with traditional finance is the transparency and regulatory oversight it provides. Public companies are required to disclose earnings, governance, and risk factors, which gives investors a clearer framework for decision making compared to more speculative markets. Value investing thrives in this environment because it allows us to separate noise from fundamentals and focus on intrinsic worth.

That said, i have been trading traditional stocks on CEX, as bitget bridge traditional assets with crypto. Traders have been testing out the new TradFi product. But am curious how others here view this kind of new product?

Check back soon to hear Fidelity’s director of quantitative market strategy offer her insights and see how your predictions compare. 

Firstly, let me say I hate these over-done posts as much as the next person hah, but I did want to offer my insights as a 20+ year investor with both a long portfolio and an options portfolio that I generate a living income off of.

My long portfolio is currently 100% SGOV. Without overanalyzing or cherry picking, the simplest historic indicators show that market valuations right now are extremely rich, of the type that always proceeds a major correction.

Shiller PE nearing dot-com levels: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Trailing PE highest on record: https://worldperatio.com/index/sp-500/

Forward PE at a ceiling it only surpasses during major market crises: https://en.macromicro.me/series/20052/sp500-forward-pe-ratio

On top of that you have a flight to safety, gold, and a flight from risk, bitcoin, rounding out 2025 narratives.

However, despite this, I'm not actually bearish for 2026. There will be an come-uppance, we all know this, but I can see 2026 melting up another 5-10%.

This is because the single most influential variable the market has responded to in the last 15 years is liquidity, and apparently the biggest source of liquidity isn't jobs or GDP, but interest rates. This has driven the Main St vs. Wall St divide since 2008.

Now the US has an administration that is hell bent on lowering interest rates, regardless of any orthodox impetus to do this. Trump will be appointing a new Fed chair, and possibly more members, who will basically vote how he says. Not only that, but I could see this new chair making statements during any moderate 10% market correction that support QE and rescuing the market, meaning almost any red month will be a buy-the-dip type situation.

We also have a pending SCOTUS decision, possibly as soon as Jan 9th, that actually looks like it could undo tariffs, which I think would cause a rally in the S&P493.

You never know with someone like Trump at the handle, but it's hard for me to see any major negative catalysts for 2026, aside from 'concerns about valuations'. Maybe a single missed ER by nVidia will cause an unwind, or maybe global liquidity will begin to dry-up as most other OECD nations take more moderate monetary policies and more severe theories about the yen carry-trade show true.

I always play defensively as I live off my savings - I intend to stay in SGOV in my long portfolio - I'll take a safe 4.25% over a risky 8.5% any day of the week. For options, where I normally sell CSPs, I'll likely pursue more delta neutral strategies.

With another year wrapping up, I’m curious how people here are thinking about next year.

What do you think will be the biggest drivers of returns by the end of 2026? Are you making any portfolio adjustments now based on those views?

It's going to be an interesting year for sure..lol.

Hey everyone,

I’ve been doing some research across different platforms and news sources, and I’ve put together a list of 10 stocks I’m keeping an eye on. Not sure which ones will continue to climb in 2026, but here’s what I’m watching:

1. INTC – Intel (CPU / Semiconductor)

2. AMD – Advanced Micro Devices (CPU / GPU / Semiconductor)

3. AVGO – Broadcom (Enterprise Chips / Semiconductor)

4. NVDA – Nvidia (GPU / AI / Semiconductor)

5. TSLA – Tesla (Electric Vehicles / EV / AI)

6. GOOGL – Alphabet (Google) (Internet / AI / Cloud)

7. AMZN – Amazon (E-commerce / Cloud / AI)

8. MU – Micron (Memory Chips / Semiconductor)

9. RKLB – Rocket Lab (Aerospace / Space Launch)

10. ANET – Arista Networks (Networking / Data Center)

The order is random, not a ranking.

Since it is the first day of the year, I decided to give my predictions for 2026 and beyond. All of these are based on damped sinusoidal waves with 7-year, 5-year, and 19-year cycles. All of the cycles have been checked for significance.

• 2026-Anemic and below historical trending average.

• 2027-Higher than average potential for market losses.

• 2028-Even higher than average probability for market losses. This year holds the highest potential for a market crash in the near future.

• 2029-2031-Anemic and below historical trending market averages.

• 2032-Higher probability of better than average market gains.

I am telling my peeps to take some money off the top, and fall in love with cash and cash equivalents.

If I were to guess what the catalysts are, we have a lot of political risks (i.e., Trump tariffs), and market risks with AI being an over-hyped reality (similar to the tech bubble, but not as severe).

Wall Street sentiment is starting to shift more positively heading into 2026, especially after the S&P 500 and Dow both hit record highs in the same week the Federal Reserve delivered a rate cut. The timing mattered markets were already on solid footing, and the policy move helped reinforce the idea that financial conditions may stay supportive for longer. What really stood out to investors were Jerome Powell’s comments after the Fed meeting. Instead of pushing back hard against easing expectations, Powell sounded noticeably less hawkish than many feared. That tone gave markets room to breathe, especially after months of uncertainty around inflation, growth, and the labor market. It doesn’t mean risks are gone valuations are still stretched in parts of the market, and economic data remains mixed but the combination of rate relief and calmer Fed messaging has clearly improved confidence. Right now, it feels like investors are less focused on short-term scares and more willing to look ahead into 2026 with a bit more optimism. Curious how others see it: is this the start of a steadier phase for markets, or just another relief rally before the next macro test?

Source:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/not-very-hawkish-at-all-wall-street-optimistic-on-stock-market-rally-in-2026-after-fed-rate-cut-150011314.html

Given all the macroeconomic factors at play now, we can't keep thinking that the market will do nothing but go up. So realistically, when do expected the downward spiral on stocks and valuations to begin? With the next 2-3 months? In 6 months? In a year?

If you saw my previous post, you know I was expecting QQQ to hit 637 before a major correction... and so far, that’s exactly how it’s unfolding.

I’ve been running more calculations, and everything still points to this being a textbook large-scale Elliott Wave pattern. QQQ has followed this structure almost perfectly for over five years, and this current correction is arriving right on schedule.

The market tagged 637 precisely and has been highly volatile ever since.

So what happens next?

On the short-term (30-minute chart), I’m expecting the current pullback to find support around 585 before we see another bullish push. Take a look...

>> 30 Minute Chart

We should also get a symmetrical move and a positive RSI divergence at that level. However, I expect that bounce to be short-lived, a likely bull trap. I’ll be using it as a chance to unwind some of the bullish trades I recently opened.

For example, I just put on an MSI 380/400/420 January butterfly for $3.80. I won’t go into the full reasoning behind MSI unless people are interested, but I do think it’s due for a move higher. The butterfly keeps my risk controlled in case I’m wrong and volatility keeps rising.

Looking at the bigger picture...

>> Weekly Chart

I expect QQQ to correct down to somewhere between the top of Wave 3 and the bottom of Wave 4, the two red dotted lines on the chart, which gives us a range of 401 to 541. Interestingly, these levels also line up closely with the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements.

I’m sure plenty of people will think I’m crazy again, but this is what the charts are showing me, and it’s been playing out so far.

Hello everyone

I have used the following senteces in Deepseek, ChatGPT, Copilot, Claude, Grok and Perplexity Pro and Gemini

"You are a financial manager with 100 years on experience trading stocks.
You have a BsC in Economic Factors, a Master in Accounting and a PhD in Market Analysis.
You predicted with 95% certainty & accuracy the market crashes since 1920 until 2025.
You avoided the collapse of your portfolio by redistributing the stocks before the market crashed.
You know exactly the leading indicators of a market crash so you acted before it happened.
Provide
- a comprehensive list of ALL the markets indicators that you must track
- what you need to focus / look- what is the range / tendency that you need to pay attention
- show these indicator in ALL the market crashes since 1970 to have history- Prepare a PDF file with all that information, with graphs in color, tables, range, descriptive information etc. That file must be extremely comprehensive in data and analysis"

EVERY single AI gave me the same results

Your toughts??

It’s that time of the year again we’re nearing the end of 2025 and heading into a brand new year soon. Thanks to recommendations from fellow Redditors, I picked up ASTS, RKLB, and NBIS earlier this year and managed to make some gains.

What bags are you holding now that you think could seriously take off and go to the moon in 2026? #MOONSHOT2026

The world right now is showing three signs which are very similar to exactly what happened before the Great Depression in 1929 and the dot com crash of the year 2000.

Which means most experts around the world are expecting a major market crash to happen, and we need to look at the strategy of what investors like Warren Buffet are doing right now and copy that to protect our wealth.

The first metric which is very similar is a valuation multiple in the stock markets called the Shiller P/E ratio. Now whenever it goes above the point of 32, it means a major crash is expected, exactly what happened in 1929 and the year 2000. And right now this ratio is at 39, which is 23% higher compared to the previous benchmarks, which means it's extremely risky.

Now, the second thing is actually this very interesting concept called the yield curve inversion. What does it mean? It basically means that, you know, in the short term, when you put money in the bank in an FD, the bank gives you higher return compared to when you make an FD for a longer duration. Now, this seems very counterintuitive, but this is one of the best indicators available in the world economy today to be able to predict a recession. And this yield curve inversion is showing up in the US market since October of 2022 to December of 2024.

( FD is same as HYSA in USA)

Now, while it has normalized and become okay right now, most economists are expecting that 18 months from December 2024 is where the crash will happen.

Now comes the third sign, which is concentration of valuation of the stock market index in a handful of stocks. And we are seeing exactly this in the S&P 500 or the US index, where out of 500 stocks, just seven stocks called the Magnificent Seven AI stocks hold 47% the value of the index. And most financial analysts around the world know that AI right now is in a massive bubble, which means over the next six to twelve months, a major crash is expected and the US stock market may fall by 30 to 40%, which will have ripple effects around stock markets around the world.

Now, in such a time, what is Warren Buffet doing? Well, right now practically close to 28% of his portfolio is just in cash and bank deposits, which is the highest ever allocation he's made to such assets in history. Earlier, he would maintain his cash and bank deposit portfolio share to just about 10% because he's expecting a major crash, which is why I would recommend, you know, you really need to look at diversification in your portfolio. Possibly have 20% of your portfolio in gold, about 20 to 25% in cash and bank deposits, and please, please diversify away from risky assets.

After my post about Goldman Sachs S&P500 forecast for the next 10 years (https://www.reddit.com/r/eupersonalfinance/s/8uorwocLOz) got pretty good discussion with a lot of different views and opinions, I decided to collect all S&P500 forecasts for 2025 that I can find in media published in the last 30 days. So here are predictions I have found:

POSITIVE:

UBS says SP&500 could reach 6,600 by the end of 2025 which is 13% up from current level.

Goldman Sachs says S&P500 will reach 6,000 by the end of 2024 and 6,300 by the end of 2025.

NEGATIVE:

Barry Bannister (chief equity strategist at Stifel) says that S&P500 in 2025 will return to where 2024 began (that is at 4,609).

If you know for any other prediction, write it in the comment.