I'm very curious to see how the market performs now that Trump is officially in office. I'm a newbie so I didn't invest a single penny since, well, maybe 3 years ago.

What normally happens? With ETFs in general being rather (not fully) low-risk, do you think you guys will see any significant change?

Just curious.

What do you think what is going to happen to stock market next week? I am just curious and want to plan ahead for my life and living. I appreciate your insight. Please be kind! Thank you for your answers! 🙏🙏🙏

Stock markets churned today, futures churned more. If you don't know what "futures" are, it is trading that happens 23 hours a day for the various stock markets across the world. While the "cash market" is open from 9:30am - 4pm EST, futures only close for an hour in the afternoon.

Just before the cash session opened today, futures were down moderately. The market traded up most of the day and closed moderately higher.

While Trump was giving his speech about tariffs, futures initially climbed 500+ points on the D30, only to reverse and close down moderately.

Futures just reopened sharply lower - down 1,000 on the Dow and 800+ on Nasdaq.

Volatility to the max. Tomorrow might well be drastic and we may get an actual crash.

https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures

Given all the macroeconomic factors at play now, we can't keep thinking that the market will do nothing but go up. So realistically, when do expected the downward spiral on stocks and valuations to begin? With the next 2-3 months? In 6 months? In a year?

Check back soon to hear Fidelity’s director of quantitative market strategy offer her insights and see how your predictions compare. 

Mea Culpa Mea Culpa Mea Maxima Culpa

As you can see from the responses below I screwed up on the day, but rather than deleting the post and hiding my humiliation I have just corrected the day it was posted to Saturday. Also please note that the futures data was dated the Friday close. (Last updated Oct 10 at 4:59:59 PM ET). I figure that leaving it up will give some innocent amusement to all of you and if it comes true, I can just edit this part of the post, and claim to be a hero.

As a final bit of information I asked my AI what the correlation between the Friday Futures close and the Monday open is. It is between .4 and .6 over the past 6 months.

Thank you all for your comments

Pre-market Stock Trading | CNN

It's Saturday at 6:43 PM EST (or it was when I started this post).

Stock futures are

DOW down 2.4%

S&P down 3.35%

Nasdaq down 4.36%

my prediction is that these futures will be reflected at the open, that Trump will rescind his 100% tariffs on China, and that markets will rebound by end of day Monday.

Feel welcome to post your own estimates before the opening Sunday.

If you saw my previous post, you know I was expecting QQQ to hit 637 before a major correction... and so far, that’s exactly how it’s unfolding.

I’ve been running more calculations, and everything still points to this being a textbook large-scale Elliott Wave pattern. QQQ has followed this structure almost perfectly for over five years, and this current correction is arriving right on schedule.

The market tagged 637 precisely and has been highly volatile ever since.

So what happens next?

On the short-term (30-minute chart), I’m expecting the current pullback to find support around 585 before we see another bullish push. Take a look...

>> 30 Minute Chart

We should also get a symmetrical move and a positive RSI divergence at that level. However, I expect that bounce to be short-lived, a likely bull trap. I’ll be using it as a chance to unwind some of the bullish trades I recently opened.

For example, I just put on an MSI 380/400/420 January butterfly for $3.80. I won’t go into the full reasoning behind MSI unless people are interested, but I do think it’s due for a move higher. The butterfly keeps my risk controlled in case I’m wrong and volatility keeps rising.

Looking at the bigger picture...

>> Weekly Chart

I expect QQQ to correct down to somewhere between the top of Wave 3 and the bottom of Wave 4, the two red dotted lines on the chart, which gives us a range of 401 to 541. Interestingly, these levels also line up closely with the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements.

I’m sure plenty of people will think I’m crazy again, but this is what the charts are showing me, and it’s been playing out so far.

I can't believe the amount of posts and comments saying things like:

"The market has everyone stumped"

"The market is not operating with any logic"

"No one knows what's going on with the markets"

Meanwhile professional / institutional investors are making billions from the volatility. Banks are creating so much money they are beating expectations and reporting record earnings.

My definition of investing: you spend time researching a company that will grow over the next decade, you buy shares in that company and you hold them for years, you review yearly but aim to hold shares until retirement.

I'm UK based but heavily invest in the USA because no other country in the world offers anything close to that mix of stability, growth and most importantly innovation (and that's even with Trump in power).

Germany, Japan, China, Russia, no one else is producing innovation at that pace and scale and that's what is driving growth. Mobile phones, AI, VR, wearable tech, pharmaceutical, electric vehicles (initially) etc etc

This means growth, big growth, this also means regardless of politics, money will continue to flood into innovative companies as people try to capitalise on the next big things and those companies are always in the USA or purchased by big US companies.

So with that in mind it should be obvious how I was able to predict the markets.

I've done my research, and I'm confident in my stock picks, i believe regardless of Geo political events the shares in my portfolio will go up long term.

Because I'm an investor and not a day trader I can also weather any downturn.

So when the market crashes I buy, if it crashes again the next week, I buy more I repeat until I have no more cash. I then continue to put x% of my pay into my portfolio every month for life.

Let's put it into perspective:

• if you purchased S&P tracker in 2007 the peak before the 08 crash, you would be up 300% today....

• buying apple at the 07 peak, you'd be up 3000% today

There are companies out there right now that will grow 1000%+ in the coming years.

Innovative companies can weather multiple presidents, wars, economic downturns, you just need to do your research and then hold long term, that imo is called investing.

Is it when retail are forced to sell their positions, even at a loss because they lack the funds to cover bills, etc?

So like recession times? Is it when unemployment rates are high? is it when disposable income is at its lowest? is it when people can't affford new triple A games? etc.

I made predictions for all the stocks in my portfolio. In just 10 days, a lot of them aged badly. To myself, and to you investors, don’t try to predict the market.

My thesis: Stock Positions 10/20/2025

GOOG: Hold after earnings when I will likely buy the stock

NEM: While tariffs devalue the U.S. dollar, Gold is likely to see record highs. Interest rates are declining, which creates more inflation which will likely help NEM, which is a Gold miner, and gold miners are cyclical with the price of Gold. As worse data approaches the stock market (which is likely to come) Gold will keep making record highs.

The USD devaluing + Interest rates likely being cut + an overvalued stock market + most other markets being overvalued is likely to allow NEM and Gold to continue to go up.

Even though NEM has a large connection to Gold, NEM still must abide by regulations which could drag down the price, even if Gold is going up. Also, my MSR ratio shows NEM at 82/16 odds, which shows that NEM is highly overvalued on the (D) chart on TradingView.

However, NEM has good leadership, and their debt has reduced by 8.69B to 7.13B (as of June 2025). Their debt-to-equity ratio is sound at 0.24.

This is why I will hold NEM and wait for more earnings which are on Oct 23 2025

NFLX: Likely to continue with strong growth through Q3. Many analysts rate NFLX a buy before earnings and are increasing their price targets, especially after the release of some big hits (Squid Game 3, Kpop Demon Hunters).

However, NFLX has fallen below its 50-day moving average of tomorrow’s earnings report. This should initiate caution to investors.

Q3 has been a very good season for companies in the S&P 500. Out of the index, 12% of companies have had their earnings, with 86% surpassing expectations. So far, this has been a fantastic quarter. NFLX is a big company and it’s likely to have a beat as well.

Even though Q3 has been a good performance, NFLX is exposed to the American consumer, which if they feel the effects of inflation too harshly, might start to cancel their Netflix subscriptions. Also, Donald Trump, the president of the U.S said that he will put 100% tariffs on movies outside of the U.S, which would drastically affect NFLX’s profit margins, because 59% of all Netflix revenue comes from international markets.

Despite this, I believe that NFLX will continue to thrive and will likely beat earnings. This is why I will buy some NFLX before earnings tomorrow.

MU: Earnings were fantastic. Revenue surged up to 37.8B, nearly a 49% increase year-over-year. Analyst targets range from $240 to $270, which is approximately a 20 – 30% upside.

Although a fantastic earnings report, MU plans to sever its chip business in China after its ban in 2023 on its products in infrastructure. While it will still supply some things to China, this will likely, over the long term hurt, revenue and revenue diversification. MU has also been facing tariff headwinds after the U.S added 10% universal tariffs on all imports, which MU has suffered from.

This is why I will hold until geopolitical tensions decrease. If they increase, I will sell a chunk of my position. I have already made 33% profit at the time of writing.

UNH: One of the biggest healthcare / insurance service companies in the U.S, with exposure across insurance (UnitedHealthcare), health services, data and pharmacy benefits. This means it has multiple levers for revenue and margin improvement. It is an established network, relationships with other companies have been built over many decades (since 1977)

Investors like Warren Buffett and Michael Burry have invested billions into UNH, seeing it as undervalued from recent highs. However, there is a reason for UNH being valued as ‘undervalued’.

UNH have been facing rising medical costs, utilization and squeezed margins. The company has faced a lot of uncertainty, even at one point suspending its 1-year outlook. The company has faced ongoing scrutiny into the investigation of Medicare billing practices and over adjustments.

This could bring potential fines, reputational damages or operational constraints. The UNH CEO, who was shot in December 2024 caused turmoil in the company. Even though it’s been nine months since the shooting, it has scarred many investors, and customers about why the CEO was shot, and if UNH is doing bad practices at the company.

For these reasons, I will likely hold the stock for the foreseeable future.

JNJ: The stock has seen a good Q3 report, sales up 6.8% year over year. The growth came from its “Innovative Medicine” and “MedTech” segments, so its not overly reliant on one division. JNJ is also pushing new therapies into the markets, so its business is diverse.

JNJ also revised down its tariff expectations from $400M to $200M, reflecting improved global trade conditions. The reason why I bought JNJ in the first place was because it was reliable and solid. It helped me hedge against market geopolitical volatility.

Even though I like JNJ stock very much, key drugs like Stelara (which is a big revenue driver) is losing its exclusivity or facing biosimilar competition which could erode further revenue. After a strong run for JNJ, positive news might be priced in. Some valuation models say that JNJ might be 4-5% overvalued relative to its fundamentals.

In the worst-case scenario, if a court hands down a massive talc verdict, or series of judgements JNJ could suffer an earnings shock, cash flow and reputation. This should keep investors cautioned of the future of JNJ.

I will hold JNJ for these reasons until further notice.

BABA: This stock has a lot of exposure to the AI market, building the ‘compute’ layer, which is for LLMs. It is e-commerce, but it could expand into technology through this. The stock has rallied in 2025, and some models suggest that BABA is still undervalued. BABA has substantial cash reserves for extra projects that could fuel revenue growth.

Geopolitical tensions between the U.S and China has made created trouble for BABA. U.S scrutiny because of U.S national security concerns has impacted the valuation of the stock. While AI growth is exciting, Alibaba’s traditional services are under margin pressure. China is dealing with a slowdown in economic growth, property stress and consumer spending being soft in many areas. Trade tensions may disrupt Alibaba.

Alibaba is also viewed as a “comeback” and “transformation story”, so there are high expectations, like any AI stock. Some analysts suggest most of the good news is already priced in.

This is why I am going to hold Alibaba until 11/21/2025, when it has its earnings, and then I will do another analysis on the company then.

TSM: This stock manufactures a large share of all the most advanced chips in the world, for big players like NVDA and AMD. Because it has such a large share, it has greater area for growth and revenue expansion. TSM has a moat in advanced technology which is extremely hard to replicate.

The accelerating demand for GPUs, AI accelerators, data centre chips, and related semiconductors benefits TSM. TSM has had strong recent earnings.

The leading edge that TSM has is extraordinarily expensive to maintain, for a company like TSM. If demand slows, then as the whole operation is so expensive, it could hurt TSM profitability.

Geopolitical situation in Taiwan is delicate, because if China declares war on Taiwan, the stock will likely drop a lot. Cybersecurity and hacking is also meaningful in the semi conductor industry.

Competition to remain the company with the most advanced chips is fierce, with Intel saying it will invest 33B euros and Samsung investing 11 – 16B dollars annually.

I believe that TSM will continue to grow (no signs of growth slowing down) but if the AI bubble pops, and as China – US tensions grow (especially over Taiwan and tariffs) an invasion into Taiwan is not off the table. This is why I am cautious of TSMC’s future prospects. I am planning to hold and buy small chunks because of this earnings report and because of Post-Earnings-Announcement-Drift which will likely last a few more weeks.

MS: The stock recently had a good Q3 performance, with their investment banking revenue jumping 44% year over year. MS has also been given more flexibility to deploy capital, increase dividends or make investments, because the Federal Reserve has agreed to lower MS’ “stress capital buffer” from 5.1%, to 4.3% for the upcoming year.

Morgan Stanley is a big company, which has many diversified operations, like asset management, institutional securities, investment banking, trading and other operations which allows for multiple angles to expand revenue.

However, much of their revenue comes from investment banking, so if just a handful of operations underperform, it could affect MS and drag on profit margins. MS is also exposed to the health of credit markets and the health of corporates, so if credit defaults rise, MS could face losses.

Morgan Stanely would also be hurt, in the worst-case scenario, by a recession. In a recession, deal making, a large revenue driver would be hurt hart, causing a drag on MS. Given the moderate chance by most institutions of a recession coming in 2025/2026, trimming the position of MS might be a good idea. This is why I will hold until recession fears are larger.

JPM: Similar to Morgan Stanley. I will hold until recession fears are larger.

UBER: Uber has a diversified business model, (uber eats, normal driving, and AI services). This helps mitigate the risks associated with any single revenue stream.

UBER faces regulatory scrutiny because of some drivers not being licensed. In Hong Kong, lawmakers have passed a bill to regulate this. The FTC has taken action against UBER for deceptive billing and cancellation practices related to its subscription, Uber One. The legal challenge could result in fines and damage to Uber’s reputation. Uber faces competition from Deliveroo and Just Eat, especially in the U.K.

This is why I will likely hold, and if earnings are bad, sell some of my position.

SPGI: Standard and Poor’s. Had a good Q2 performance of 3.755B, a 6% increase year over year. The company also announced a 1.8B acquisition of With Intelligence, a private markets data provider. This will enhance SPGIs offerings, in the rapidly growing private financial market sector. Analysts maintain a “strong buy” rating for SPGI, with a 12-month price target averaging 609$ indicating a potential upside of ~28%.

SPGI’s valuations are concerning. The P/E ratio is at 36.3x, which is above the industry average of 25.7x. DCF model suggest that a fair, closer value is 288$, indicating the stock may be overvalued. Like MS and JPM, market downturns could reduce demand for SPGI services and seeing as a recession has a moderate chance for 2025/2026, this is a possibility.

Even though SPGI has concerning valuations, I think that I will allocate a large amount of money to SPGI before earnings. Right now, it is down -11% in my portfolio, but to me it, it suggests a buying opportunity, and as the stock has gone down a lot, the expectations for Q3 might be lower**. I will buy moderate chunks more SPGI**. Earnings on the 30^th of October 2025

BKNG: Earnings on the 28^th of October 2025. Booking Holdings has demonstrated good financial results, with revenue growth being in the travel sector. BKNG is diversified, having many brands such as Booking.com, Agoda, KAYAK and OpenTable, providing a broad range of services. The company has operations in 220 countries, meaning that it has a strong global presence.

Booking Holdings is exposed to currency exchange rate volatility, which may impact revenue. BKNG is also very economically sensitive, so in a recession, it is likely to be impacted very hard. An economic downturn is likely not good for BKNG. The industry is highly competitive, with players like Expedia, Airbnb and other regional platforms wanting market share. BKNG has a beta of 1.35, so it’s more volatile than other stocks.

For these reasons, I will buy a small amount of BKNG before earnings.

BRK.B: 70% increase in profits in operating earnings, driven by a substantial rise in insurance.

Berkshire Hathaway has underperformed the S&P 500. I am not holding it to outperform the S&P 500, I am more holding it as a counterweight to more volatile stocks in my portfolio. Warren Buffet stepped down in 2025 which has been an issue for some investors, but I am confident in the leadership of Greg Abel.

BRK.B is a very small position in my portfolio (because of Warren Buffet stepping down, and that turbulence) but the dust has likely settled, so I will buy large chunks before earnings (which is on the 3^rd of November, 2025).

DOW: This stock has a strong history of dividends, which is why I bought it in the first place. It has a diverse revenue stream from multiple angles.

The company is facing many lawsuits over misleading investors that it could withstand tariffs and sustain dividends. Analysts project that DOW will have a loss of 0.31$ a share, a significant decline from the same quarter last year, that yielded positive profit per share.

This is why I will likely hold DOW through earnings, and see where things stand after earnings.

OPEN: Meme stock / speculative. Hold / Sell before earnings report with the way things are going.

AVGO: Strong Q3 performance, revenue of 15.95B, a 22% increase year over year. AI semiconductor revenue has surged to 63% year over year to 5.2B dollars, marking 10 consecutive quarters of growth.

AVGO has a high P/E ratio of 89.3, amidst this AI bubble, which is worrying investors. The company has also had layoffs affecting sales, customer success, and account management roles, including VMware, which it acquired in late 2023. Even though AVGO had strong revenue, the stock still declined 4% following because it was not a good enough earnings report to please investors.

This is why I am likely to hold till the next earnings report.

NVDA: Like AVGO, but they work in slightly different areas. P/E ratio is 52, and the stock will be a hold until earnings.

Sorry for the long essay!

After my post about Goldman Sachs S&P500 forecast for the next 10 years (https://www.reddit.com/r/eupersonalfinance/s/8uorwocLOz) got pretty good discussion with a lot of different views and opinions, I decided to collect all S&P500 forecasts for 2025 that I can find in media published in the last 30 days. So here are predictions I have found:

POSITIVE:

UBS says SP&500 could reach 6,600 by the end of 2025 which is 13% up from current level.

Goldman Sachs says S&P500 will reach 6,000 by the end of 2024 and 6,300 by the end of 2025.

NEGATIVE:

Barry Bannister (chief equity strategist at Stifel) says that S&P500 in 2025 will return to where 2024 began (that is at 4,609).

If you know for any other prediction, write it in the comment.

The world right now is showing three signs which are very similar to exactly what happened before the Great Depression in 1929 and the dot com crash of the year 2000.

Which means most experts around the world are expecting a major market crash to happen, and we need to look at the strategy of what investors like Warren Buffet are doing right now and copy that to protect our wealth.

The first metric which is very similar is a valuation multiple in the stock markets called the Shiller P/E ratio. Now whenever it goes above the point of 32, it means a major crash is expected, exactly what happened in 1929 and the year 2000. And right now this ratio is at 39, which is 23% higher compared to the previous benchmarks, which means it's extremely risky.

Now, the second thing is actually this very interesting concept called the yield curve inversion. What does it mean? It basically means that, you know, in the short term, when you put money in the bank in an FD, the bank gives you higher return compared to when you make an FD for a longer duration. Now, this seems very counterintuitive, but this is one of the best indicators available in the world economy today to be able to predict a recession. And this yield curve inversion is showing up in the US market since October of 2022 to December of 2024.

( FD is same as HYSA in USA)

Now, while it has normalized and become okay right now, most economists are expecting that 18 months from December 2024 is where the crash will happen.

Now comes the third sign, which is concentration of valuation of the stock market index in a handful of stocks. And we are seeing exactly this in the S&P 500 or the US index, where out of 500 stocks, just seven stocks called the Magnificent Seven AI stocks hold 47% the value of the index. And most financial analysts around the world know that AI right now is in a massive bubble, which means over the next six to twelve months, a major crash is expected and the US stock market may fall by 30 to 40%, which will have ripple effects around stock markets around the world.

Now, in such a time, what is Warren Buffet doing? Well, right now practically close to 28% of his portfolio is just in cash and bank deposits, which is the highest ever allocation he's made to such assets in history. Earlier, he would maintain his cash and bank deposit portfolio share to just about 10% because he's expecting a major crash, which is why I would recommend, you know, you really need to look at diversification in your portfolio. Possibly have 20% of your portfolio in gold, about 20 to 25% in cash and bank deposits, and please, please diversify away from risky assets.