This would be a decline of about 6% into the end of 2025. The reason for the prediction stems from political uncertainty, particularly around tariffs and the overall impact of inflation on the U.S. economy.

July 8, 2025 - Despite mounting fears of a growth slowdown and resurgent inflation, data throughout the second quarter suggested the labor market was resilient and tariffs were having only a modest impact on inflation. Taken together, investors now see reasons to hope that the Federal Reserve will resume interest rate cuts in the second half, which could further lift shares. Several banks have lifted their year-end S&P 500 targets in recent weeks, with many restoring estimates they slashed after "Liberation Day." The path ahead for stocks could turn largely on questions about trade.

And broadly we have a widening bias in Euro and dollar high yield, more unexpected macro weakening even with the expectation of a total positive return on credit for the rest of the year. We revised lower our forecast on oil, on supply consideration, barring an escalation in geopolitical risk and we also revised our, our forecast for gold as well. Sam Azzarello: Fabio question for you, which markets or sectors will you be especially watching in the second half of 2025 and why?

August 5, 2025 - The financials sector has been one of the better performing sectors this year, but we think the market is overestimating the amount of long-term earnings growth. Stocks across the sector are broadly overvalued as the number of overvalued stocks is triple the number of undervalued stocks. Considering we expect the rate of economic growth will decelerate sequentially over the course of 2025, wed be especially cautious investing in industrials and would require significant margins of safety to guard against slowing earnings over the short term.

14 hours ago - ... Kelly Bogdanova Vice President, ... double-digit and above-average gains, with the S&P 500 rising 17.9 percent including dividends in 2025, boosting the total return to 100.6 percent since this bull market began in Oct...

Outlooks Stock Market Outlook 2025: Can the Bull Run Persist? After two strong years for stocks, more muted gains are likely in 2025, with opportunities in U.S.

While macroeconomic fundamentals remain supportive, any deterioration in labor trends or rise in inflation during the fourth quarter that challenges investors' mostly sanguine view of the future could push back on what is historically the stock market's best three-month period of the year. In our view, U.S. markets enter Q4 with momentum, but the bar for further gains is high. Discipline and being selective are essential to navigating the final months of 2025.

July 11, 2025 - For example, the median S&P 500 company in a goods-related industry entered the second quarter of 2025 with above-average days of inventory totalling roughly three months. “Recent company commentary shows S&P 500 firms plan to use a combination of cost savings, supplier adjustments, and pricing to offset the impact of tariffs,” Kostin writes. ... The S&P 500’s 25% rally since April was one of the sharpest climbs outside of a recession in 20 years. But “the next few months for the equity market will look very different from the last,” Kostin writes.

Importantly, the past few years have taught us that the economy can handle hotter inflation, but it doesn't come without a cost: public backlash, sharp drawdowns in the stock market when yields spike, a Fed that shifts its focus back and forth between its two mandates, and so on. Putting it together, we see some risk that inflation moves higher next year but recognize that if the labor market were to deteriorate faster than expected, a decline in income growth would ultimately be disinflationary. Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, as of 12/5/2025.

Insights from CBS Professor Abby Joseph Cohen paint a challenging year for the U.S. and global economies, but opportunities abound. ... Barely a week into 2025, both U.S. and global stocks continue to be colored by uncertainty.

Tariff rates may still change but the initial shock of the huge jump in levies in 2025 is likely in the past. Meanwhile, valuations are relatively attractive. International stocks as represented by the MSCI EAFE Index tend to trade at a lower valuation relative to the S&P 500 Index due to larger weights in sectors that typically have lower multiples, such as Financials, Industrials, and Materials.

October 3, 2025 - Following this year’s rally, only real estate, energy, and healthcare remain undervalued. As of Sept. 30, 2025, the US equity market was trading at a 3% premium over our fair value estimates.

September 12, 2025 - J.P. Morgan predicted a slight decline in the stock market by the end of 2025. At the time of writing (August 2025), the S&P 500 is around 6,400, but J.P. Morgan predicts it will end the year around 6,000.

September 30, 2025 - Bank of America is feeling good about the prospects for the market rally extending into 2026. Strategists predict the S&P 500 will rise another 8% in the next year, while earnings will grow 12%.

3 weeks ago - Inflation and the dominance of a few mega-cap tech stocks have masked weaker gains for the broader market. Rising earnings have been driving returns in 2025, after years of gains driven mainly by rising valuations such as price-earnings ratios ...

December 3, 2025 - Small-cap stocks outperformed in November as the Morningstar US Small Cap Index rose 2.48%. Comparatively, Morningstar’s US Mid Cap Index rose 0.64%, and the US Large Cap Index declined 0.05%. Small-cap stocks remain the most undervalued, trading at a 15% discount to fair value compared with large cap and mid-cap, trading at 3% and 2% discounts, respectively. Source: Morningstar Research Services, LLC. Data as of November 28, 2025. As we head into the end of the year and look toward the beginning of 2026, we suspect the market’s focus will remain on the size and duration of the ongoing artificial intelligence arms race and buildout boom.

Following two strong years, further stock market gains are likely in 2025 but may be more muted. Continued adoption of artificial intelligence could lead to a productivity boom, as in the late 90’s.

July 16, 2025 - Given how the second quarter of 2025 began, few investors probably expected the quarter to end with the stock market hitting new highs. In early April, stocks collapsed on worries about tariffs and what impact they’d have on the economy.

January 10, 2025 - Based on our valuations, we expect little price appreciation at the market index level until earnings catch up to valuations—which isn’t likely to occur until the second half of the year.

Inflation from the 2021–2022 period has left expectations elevated and made it even more important to insulate portfolios from stickier, more volatile inflation and the positive correlation between stocks and bonds. Tariffs provide upside risks going forward, though a surge in inflation is not our base case. The Fed has resumed cutting rates despite the above-target inflation, and gold has rallied nearly 30% since our Mid-Year Outlook. ... The chart displays the 5-year, 5-year forward inflation swap rate (5y5y inflation swap rate) in percentage terms. The horizontal axis represents years, starting from 2015 and ending in 2025.