November 18, 2025 - Should Xi Jinping opt for invasion, like Putin did in Ukraine, he risks defeat, the opportunity for reunification, and potential damage to his domestic political standing. Economic Fallout. A conflict would have dire economic consequences. It would likely disrupt global shipping in the South China Sea and through the Taiwan Strait, causing vital domestic resources to be reallocated towards warfighting rather than addressing economic ailments.

1 month ago - The relatively minor targeting benefits are certainly not worth risking a near-term war with a rising nuclear power. As Caverley writes, “Going to war because of Taiwan’s perceived military value could destroy the operational balance to save it.”68Caverley, “So What,” 50.

The most extreme possibility involves a full-scale amphibious invasion, characterized by bombardment and ground troops landing and systematically seizing strategic locations, including ports, government buildings and airfields.

May 22, 2025 - Apparent divisions within U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration about how to approach Taiwan compound these risks. If Beijing doubts U.S. commitments to the island, that could encourage China to engage in more coercive actions against Taiwan.

September 10, 2025 - BUSH: Well, this is the main reason we did this book, because we wanted to calm people down a little bit over the possibility of war. I actually think the risk of war is low. I think Taiwan leaders are very sensible. They have accommodated to the status quo preferences of the population.

2 weeks ago - Meanwhile, Taiwan would suffer about 50,000 military casualties and 50,000 civilian casualties, the U.S. would lose 5,000 military personnel and 1,000 civilians, and Japan would lose 1,000 military personnel and 500 civilians, the report estimates.

2 days ago - An all-out invasion of Taiwan by ... pose a daily challenge and are likely to grow. And they, too, risk escalation into all-out war that pulls in the United States....

2 weeks ago - As China’s annual exports account for 20 percent of GDP, compared with 10 percent for the US, any conflict “risks cutting off the country’s only sources of economic growth in the future, leaving its economy entirely dependent on weakening domestic demand,” the report says. Meanwhile, a war could bring “near-total embargoes on trade with China,” US economic sanctions, major fluctuations in global financial markets and disruption to manufacturing supply chains, and Hong Kong might cease to be a global economic hub, it says.

October 19, 2025 - Even if the U.S. could defend Taiwan and expel Chinese soldiers, Beijing could prepare to attack again or make the U.S. position in Taiwan increasingly costly. Some have argued this means the United States should prepare for an invasion by closing the gap and building up its assets, but seeking to achieve dominance in China’s backyard would be provocative, risky, and probably impossible. The fundamental deficits the U.S. faces in a war with China over Taiwan, distance and will, cannot be overcome with more spending on deployments.

A major risk, though, is that Taiwanese production might be used as a bargaining chip if it's not destroyed. This could be as part of a peace deal after a war, but it could also happen before a full-scale war starts. China might impose a blockade, take some outlying islands, or use other kinds ...

3 weeks ago - TAIPEI/BEIJING, Dec 30 (Reuters) - China fired rockets into waters off Taiwan on Tuesday, showcased new assault ships and dismissed prospects of U.S. and allied intervention to block any future attack by Beijing to take control of the island in its most extensive war games to date.

3 weeks ago - China’s ruling Communist Party claims the self-governing democracy of Taiwan as its own territory, despite never having controlled it, and has vowed to take control of the island, by force if necessary. “This exercise serves as a serious warning to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces and external interfering forces,” Shi Yi, spokesperson for the Eastern Theater Command said Monday, using what appeared to be a veiled reference to the US and its allies.

1 month ago - The crisis could prevent the Special Budget for Asymmetric War from passing in a timely manner without significant changes. Lai can dissolve the LY and trigger new elections if the LY passes a vote of “no confidence” against Cho. New legislative elections would prevent the special budget from reaching the floor of the LY until after the elections are over. KMT and TPP opposition to the special budget risks perpetuating the perception that Taiwan is not committed to its own national defense.

Xi’s risk calculus is crucial to understanding if and under what circumstances Beijing might take aggressive actions against Taiwan because any such decision would carry profound political, economic, and strategic consequences for the PRC and for him personally.

US reliance on costly, sophisticated weapons leaves it exposed to China’s ability to mass-produce cheaper systems in overwhelming numbers, the highly classified “Overmatch Brief” warns. A national security official under Joe Biden who reviewed the document is said to have turned pale on realising Beijing had “redundancy after redundancy” for “every trick we had up our sleeve”, The New York Times reported. Losing Taiwan, the US’s key bulwark against Chinese power in the western Pacific, would deliver a severe strategic and symbolic blow to Washington.

3 weeks ago - In a post on Weibo, the Chinese military's Eastern Theater Command - in charge of the Taiwan Strait - described the upcoming military exercise as a "shield of justice". "All those plotting independence will be annihilated upon encountering the shield!" the post read. While some initial drills have begun, the military said it would conduct a major exercise from 08:00 to 18:00 local time on Tuesday. Beijing's foreign ministry called the drills a "severe punishment for separatist forces seeking independence through force" and warned "external forces" against "using Taiwan to contain China".

December 19, 2025 - The risks of such an operation are substantial, even for a modernized and experienced military, however. US President Donald Trump signed the 2026 National Defense Appropriations Act (NDAA) on December 18. The bill places a significant focus on enhancing US alliances in the Indo-Pacific, increasing defense cooperation with Taiwan, and countering the PRC.