Institute for the Study of War
understandingwar.org › home › china & taiwan update, november 21, 2025
China & Taiwan Update, November 21, 2025 | ISW
November 24, 2025 - The PRC has escalated pressure against Japan in response to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi saying that a war over Taiwan could threaten Japanese security. The CCP is trying to coerce Takaichi into retracting her statement and deter other countries from tying their security to that of Taiwan.
Videos
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China takes Japan–Taiwan dispute to the United Nations - YouTube
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Xi 'Teases' Japan On War: Chinese Cutters Storm Into Taiwan Waters ...
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Can Taiwan prevent an invasion by China? - YouTube
07:16
Is China Preparing to Use Civilian Boats to Invade Taiwan? | Vantage ...
25:39
China-Japan Tensions Soar: Taiwan on Edge | Will There Be Another War?
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Russia Training China for War? The Plan to Invade Taiwan Explained ...
Why would China even want to invade Taiwan?
If they successfully take Taiwan it would mean they are no longer contained by the eastern island chains. Kind of a break out of sorts. More on reddit.com
What does a Chinese invasion of Taiwan actually mean?
You're right that these small islands cannot be defended from military force. It is hard to read Chinese domestic politics. If China did this they would certainly spin it as some sort of victory to the domestic public. But my sense is that the general public are not idiots. So while there will be some small ultranationalist part of the population, this probably unsettles a rather larger portion. There will also be a reaction from Taiwan. A likely outcome being that the "status quo" population suddenly shifts to "pro independence". This would likely be bad news for the KMT who would then be forced into a choice of taking some sort of appeasement position (likely unpopular) or shift away from cooperation with China. In the most serious but unlikely scenario, this gives an opening for a pro independence referendum in Taiwan. The problem (likely for the Chinese) is this kind of overt offensive move to take territory opens the doors to all kinds of economic and diplomatic actions. Saying that you want to do something and actually doing it are very different things. There is a strong likelihood of potentially painful economic sanctions. Then, it puts the Western bloc countries in a situation where (worst case for China) the big countries repudiate their "One China" policy (as many countries have affirmed in the UN). Formal recognition by the EU and US that Taiwan is separate from China is a nightmare. But these countries would have a hard time arguing against this (morally/diplomatically) especially if Taiwan presents itself as a victim of aggression and has a broad popular mandate for independence. This move by China is risking a lot of pain for themselves in return for not very strategic gains. More on reddit.com
Taiwan Invasion Likelihood
It’s entirely possible. The Chinese military has been preparing for this for decades, it’s one of the primary purposes for their existence at the moment. As difficult as it would be, as many factors that must be considered, as much damage and casualties as the PLA would take, it is very possible that they will try, and even that they will succeed. Taiwan is not an impenetrable fortress. It’s an objective that presents numerous tactical disadvantages for an attacking force, but that can be said about a myriad of objectives faced by militaries throughout history. It’s comforting for many to sit and talk about how they “could never do it”, or “we’d kick their asses if they tried”, but for those of us in the military, the ones who’d have to go out there and put warheads on foreheads if shit hit the fan, it’s a nightmare that we pray never becomes a reality. More on reddit.com
Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the near future seems likely
Mja, the only time I will regard it as likely is when Chinese investors start pulling most of their investments out of EuropeAnd U.S, because they have got a warning from Chinese leaders and they dont want to end up like the Russians who lost their assets. More on reddit.com
Foreign Affairs
foreignaffairs.com › xi jinping › how war in taiwan ends
How War in Taiwan Ends: If Deterrence Fails, Could America Thwart China?
November 6, 2025 - The Trump administration’s new National Defense Strategy is therefore correct to embrace a strategy of denial for stopping an invasion of Taiwan. But rebuffing an invasion might not end the war. Joel Wuthnow, an expert on the Chinese military, has warned, “There is no scenario in which China, following an unsuccessful invasion, accepts responsibility, acknowledges that military solutions are impractical, or pivots to a fundamentally different set of political objectives toward Taiwan.” In the wake of a failed invasion, Chinese leader Xi Jinping (or his successor) would be unlikely to simply pack up and go home.
Ynetnews
ynetnews.com › magazine › article › hjtjsgjxzg
Even 10,000 missiles won’t be enough: China’s sprint toward Taiwan invasion
November 21, 2025 - David Santoro, head of the Pacific Forum think tank, warned of the dangers of escalation: “We’re already in a cold war,” Santoro said. “It’s present across every domain — economic, technological, and military. The real danger is that it turns into a hot one.” · Tensions surrounding Taiwan are now spilling into a full-blown diplomatic clash between China and Japan.
Stimson Center
stimson.org › security & strategy › defense policy & posture › rethinking the threat: why china is unlikely to invade taiwan
Rethinking the Threat: Why China is Unlikely to Invade Taiwan • Stimson Center
November 18, 2025 - The military argument against the Taiwan scenario is the weakest of the four because most military challenges can eventually be overcome if leaders are willing to absorb the human and resource losses necessary to do so. Mainland China’s military doctrine and long-standing declared policies indicate its strong preference for using all measures short of war to bring about unification with Taiwan, relying on the threat of military force only if “possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted.”3Fǎn Fēnliè Guójiā Fǎ (反分裂国家法) [Anti-Secession Law] (promulgated by the President of the People’s Republic of China, Nat’l People’s Cong., March 14, 2005, effective March 14, 2005), Xianfa art.
War on the Rocks
warontherocks.com › home › taiwan’s will to fight isn’t the problem
Taiwan’s Will to Fight Isn’t the Problem
September 18, 2025 - Join War on the Rocks and gain access to content trusted by policymakers, military leaders, and strategic thinkers worldwide. ... China’s increasingly powerful military has bracketed Taiwan with exercises. Its air and naval forces launch daily incursions, and Beijing has erased the unofficial maritime border between them.
Channel NewsAsia
channelnewsasia.com › cna-insider › china-victory-day-parade-wwii-military-strength-weapons-peace-2027-5333901
After show of might, is China now ready to invade Taiwan by 2027? - CNA
November 10, 2025 - As the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe once mentioned, a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency. Japan is increasing its military budget as it warns of an increasingly complex global security environment. Geography explains much of this reasoning. After the then US House of Representatives Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taipei in 2022, China fired missiles at the waters around Taiwan, near Yonaguni Island.
The Independent
independent.co.uk › asia › china
It would now be wise to assume China’s Xi is going to move against Taiwan – this is how it will happen
September 5, 2025 - US intelligence and military officials have testified that Xi has instructed the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready to “invade or coerce” Taiwan by 2027 – a date marking the centenary of the PLA’s founding. The date is not very far away. It must be taken seriously, because the autocrats may think there may never be a better time in world politics to strike. Xi and his comrades have watched as Putin’s war in Ukraine turned from blitzkrieg to stalemate. But there is no higher consideration in the Chinese system than survival. China considers that Putin has won the war merely by avoiding defeat.
Institute for the Study of War
understandingwar.org › home › china-taiwan weekly update, september 8, 2025
China-Taiwan Weekly Update, September 8, 2025 | ISW
September 8, 2025 - The PRC hosted an extravagant military parade immediately after the SCO summit to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the Japanese surrender in World War II. Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attended the parade.
Responsible Statecraft
responsiblestatecraft.org › asia-pacific › taiwan
Three reasons why China can't afford to invade Taiwan | Responsible Statecraft
1 week ago - There are three non-military conditions that make a full military assault or blockade of Taiwan a nonviable option for the CCP. First is the global importance of Taiwan’s semiconductor manufacturing base, second is the impact on trade and the shipping industry running through the Taiwan Strait and Luzon Strait, and third is China’s own less-than-favorable economic conditions.
BBC
bbc.com › news › articles › cp94v42gmg9o
Taiwan is preparing for a Chinese attack but its people don't think war is coming soon
August 25, 2025 - Any formal declaration of independence by Taiwan could trigger military action from China, which has a law stating it will resort to "non-peaceful means" to prevent the "secession" of Taiwan. Lai maintains Taiwan is already a sovereign nation and therefore has no need to formally declare independence. ... Besides turning up its rhetoric, China has also increasingly sent its warplanes and ships into Taiwanese airspace and waters.
Sky News
news.sky.com › story › china-is-preparing-to-invade-is-taiwan-ready-for-war-13394457
'China is preparing to invade Taiwan' - but there are questions over whether the island is ready | World News | Sky News
July 31, 2025 - Self-governing and democratic, it is viewed by China as a breakaway province. Under President Xi Jinping, the long-held aim of reunification has been turbocharged - he has reportedly asked his troops to be ready for a potential invasion as early as 2027. Meanwhile, Taiwan's new president is seen as a deeply provocative figure on the mainland, with Beijing depicting him in propaganda as a parasite "courting ultimate destruction".