^{tl;dr and notable points lower down}

Hey all, here's my Tesla (TSLA) Valuation Model, up until 2030:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RFNyL5k2vEELjfMOGEsF0Rdj8C1taHdOzukfuA8oY9c/edit?usp=sharing

This model provides data including and excluding Autonomous MaaS (AMaaS) revenue, allowing for comparison of potential outcomes dependant on whether full Autonomy is achieved and marketable as a robotaxi program in the next decade.

I believe that this model is relatively conservative in both financial calculations and production growth predictions. This is in comparison to both statements by the companies and to predictions from many buy-side analysts, namely ARK Invest and Baron Funds.

-----------------------------

tl;dr:

2030 predictions excluding AMaas: $5235 share price from $591B revenue, $158B profit, $1.6T market cap

2030 predictions including AMaas: $24844 share price from $1.28T revenue, $365B profit, $5.8T market cap

major notes:

predicted 1.2m vehicle sales 2024 is 40% of Musk's stated expectation of 3m

AMaaS release 5yrs behind Musk's original timeline

predicted auto production growth is 35-40% yoy, Musk has stated that he expects 50% yoy

% AMaaS vehicles on network and hrs/week could be 2-3x realistically once safety and owner profitability has been proven

comparing EV/EBIT and P/S ratios to similar growth companies and the total market in general (as of Feb20) portrays the predicted 2030 valuations as extremely conservative and could realistically be 1.5-3x

vehicle and energy production costs (and thus gross margins) have been modelled in line with Wright's Law; prices have been modelled to steadily decline with costs - alternatively, Tesla could maintain prices and allow their margins to increase much faster

^{^these points and many others are further explained within the Notes section of the spreadsheet}

Despite my longer term (4-10 years) expectations remaining unchanged, here are my model updates for 2020 estimates specifically regarding potential CoViD impact:

2020 estimates pre-CoViD:

Auto Total #: 520000

Auto ASP: $55000

Auto Gross Margin: 21%

Energy MWh deployed: 2700

Energy $/MWh: $735

Energy Gross Margin: 15%

EOY Share Price: $1088

2020 estimates post-CoViD:

Auto Total #: 419000 (-20%)

Auto ASP: $49000 (-11%)

Auto Gross Margin: 20% (-5%)

Energy MWh deployed: 2160 (-20%)

Energy $/MWh: $698 (-5%)

Energy Gross Margin: 15% (no change)

EOY Share Price: $806 (-26%)

Expect another update in the next couple of weeks following Battery Investor Day. The date for this event is yet to be confirmed, however it has long been expected April or May. It may not occur until early-June, however Musk maintains that they will be revealing some of the most important battery-related plans and information of Tesla's history. I am expecting long-term plans to be revealed for multi-TWh battery production in the next decade, allowing for something ridiculous like 20M vehicles annually. If they reveal anything crazy like this I'll definitely be updating the model with that kind of growth.

-----------------------------

full disclosure, I've a current share price buy target of $875 USD with the expectation of that to sextuple by 2030 excluding revenue from Autonomous MaaS

i of course must also say that i have no idea what i'm talking about + that you should take everything in these spreadsheets with a mouthful of salt water, making no investment decisions based on me nor my numbers.

So I've held Tesla since 2018. The stock has had plenty of ups and downs over time such as the 420 moment, Giga Factory ramp ups, and recent layoffs. Currently my shares have gained around 1800% on the initial investment. This has me wondering is now the time to sell? The current market cap on Tesla is $1.3 trillion USD. I guess my thought process is how much more can Tesla honestly gain over next 12-24 months? Previously we had big product roll outs such as Gigafactories openings, super charger expansion, and new vehicles. The 2024 deliveries where down 1% over previous year. I can see deliveries increasing in the future but I don't see previous growth such as Model Y roll out happening soon. That means Tesla will need to either massively cut costs to raise margins or need a big breakthrough such as full level 5 self driving AI. Tesla's current annual revenue is around $100 billion USD. Google with a market cap of 2.45 trillion has annual revenue of $278 billion USD. Even if Musk's current closeness to Trump administration is helpful I dob't see a way to get revenue anyone near that level and increasing the market cap.

I’ve always felt Tesla is one of the strangest stocks I follow. Every few weeks the headlines turn super bearish or sentiment feels awful, and somehow the price just refuses to die. Since October it’s actually held up better than I expected: it was around $456 back then, dropped into the high $380s in November, bounced back to ~430, and now it’s sitting in the mid-440s. After all that noise, it’s basically only a small step down from October.

What’s weird to me is that the news in the same period hasn’t sounded great. I remember a bunch of pieces about “margins getting crushed” and “Tesla losing its EV lead” as cheaper EVs (especially from China) grabbed share. In places like France and Sweden, sales were down something like 40–50% YoY, and I just saw another article saying that in the UK, November sales were down about 19%, yet TSLA still roughly up 4%.

After Q3, the stock did sell off for a bit, which kind of matched the mood: GAAP operating income down ~40% YoY, operating margin ~5.8%, total gross margin ~18%, auto gross margin ex-credits only mid-teens vs close to 30% at the peak. Revenue hit a record, but net income was still down ~35–40% YoY. The one real bright spot was they printed almost $4B in free cash flow and have over $40B in cash, so the balance sheet doesn’t really scare me.

Personally I still see Tesla as a genuinely “very good” auto + energy business, I just can’t really call it cheap here with a big margin of safety. For me to get more comfortable, I’d want either a clear trend of margin recovery, or the AI / FSD / robotics story actually showing up as a visible line on the P&L instead of just keynotes and hype.

So I’m honestly curious: if Tesla mostly stays a really good auto + energy company for the rest of this decade and robotaxis / robots aren’t huge before 2030, what kind of PE would you put on that? Under that assumption, is today’s price cheap, fair, or just straight-up expensive to you? And if I butchered any of these stats, feel free to correct me in the comments. aslo anyone wants to dig into the UK stuff, this was the dashboard I was looking at: Tesla UK sales down ~19% in November, New Automotive data shows.

tl;dr, notable points and changes since last update lower down

Hey all, here's my Tesla (TSLA) Valuation Model, up until 2030:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cUzJrRJ_QtT4_zpXXkRRpuSnAR3M9t9DDkG5FX5nv1g/edit?usp=sharing

This model provides projections including and excluding AMaaS (Autonomous Mobility as a Service) revenue, allowing for comparison of potential outcomes dependant on whether full Autonomy is achieved and marketable as a Robotaxi program in the next decade.

I believe that this model is relatively conservative in both financial calculations and production growth predictions. This is in comparison to predictions and statements by Tesla, their representatives and many buy-side analysts, namely ARK Invest, Baron Funds, Jeffries Financial Group, Loup Ventures and Piper Sandler.

-----------------------------

tl;dr:

2030 predictions excluding AMaaS: $3709 share price from $694B revenue, $206B profit, $3.7T market cap

2030 predictions including AMaaS: $12940 share price from $1.34T revenue, $468B profit, $12.9T market cap

major notes:

• based on average 100kW/vehicle; predictions infer <2TWh battery capacity utilised 2030 (including <0.5TWh allocated to energy products), this is considerably less than Tesla's stated goal of 3TWh 2030

• in 2018, Toyota sold ~10m vehicles at ~25k ASP; my 2030 projection of 14m at $36k seems realistic when taking into account inflation and Tesla's diverse mix of higher ASP vehicles (S/X, Roadster, Semi, etc.). The ASP for all new vehicles in the US in mid-2021 was est. $40k

• predicted long-term auto production growth is 25-35% yoy, Musk has often stated that he expects YOY Auto growth of 50-100% for several years, with a long-term goal of 20mil vehicles/year

• Solar/Storage prices and margins infer that Tesla will lower prices consistently while maintaining conservatively low margins of 5-15%

• AMaaS release many years behind Musk's original timeline. % AMaaS vehicles on network and hrs/week could be 2-3x realistically once safety and owner profitability has been proven

• comparing EV/EBIT and P/S ratios to similar growth companies and the total market in general (as of Nov21) portrays the predicted 2030 valuations as relatively conservative for a fast-growing blue chip company

• vehicle and energy production costs (and thus gross margins) have been modelled in line with Wright's Law; prices have been modelled to steadily decline with costs - alternatively, Tesla could maintain prices and allow their margins to increase much faster

^these points and many others are further explained within the Notes section of the spreadsheet

Changes to model since last update in May: adjusted Auto ASPs, margins and vehicle mix for 2021-onwards; fixed up Energy tab and separated Storage and Solar; increased Software prices and take-rates due to recent improvements in capability of FSD Beta; adjusted Software 2 tab due to subscription FSD released in Q2 '21; adjusted R&D and SG&A estimates to better reflect efficiency improvements, these are slightly offset by increased depreciation cost estimates; increased valuation multiples as I believe they were excessively conservative before; decreased dilution estimates heavily due to improved efficiencies and thus less need for capital raises; added detail and new points of interest to the Notes section.

~ ~

In closing, I've a current buy-price target of USD$1300, with the expectation for that to increase roughly 2.8x to $3700 by 2030 excluding revenue from AMaaS (Autonomous Mobility as a Service). I do expect a much larger return than this in the long-term, however this would be the lowest return I'd be comfortable with. Based on TSLA's November 11th closing price of $1063, this would be a return of ~3.5x. Including AMaaS and Software projections, my model results in a 2030 price of ~$13000. This would be a return of 12x today's TSLA price. Adjusting my price target with a 10% chance of AMaaS being achieved by 2025, my buy-price target would be $1730.

Keep in mind that the entirety of my model is relatively conservative when compared to other investors and analysts that have formal investment analysis training and actually get paid to do this. For comparison, Piper Sandler have a one-year price target of $1300, Jeffries Financial Group have a one-year target of $1400, and Ark Invest have a 2025 price target of $3000, versus my $2000.

I of course must also say that I have no idea what I'm talking about and that you should take everything in these spreadsheets with a mouthful of salt water, making no investment decisions based on me nor my numbers.

funding secured

An analysis by someone I know, what do you think about it:

Mid- to late April will be the next earnings report and I expect that it will not be good. With rare exceptions, stocks go way down on poor earnings reports. I think that I will just hold or possibly sell before the earnings report. If I sold now then I would probably not invest in Tesla again I don't think anything will improve Tesla sales in Germany or Europe. Here, Americans have short memories and will continue buying Teslas but maybe fewer than before. There will need to be price reductions which will hurt profitability and thus the stock price will go down. Long term, meaning the next 2-3 years, Tesla must execute nearly perfectly the new robo-taxi service and then the android. Both are extremely risky and will have competition from other companies. The auto business alone is not enough to justify even the current (lower) stock price. However, their energy business is continuing to grow in the US although it's not as "sexy" as the other parts.

Let's talk what is a conservative price per share by 2030.

First off, Tesla currently has a market cap of 800B. Let's assume that CCIV/LUCID is half of Tesla's market cap by 2030. Let's also assume that Tesla add only 200B to their market cap in the next 9 years to have a total market cap of 1 Trillion. Yes I know, that is super conservative that Tesla will be 1T by 2030, but let's just keep it conservative. So Lucid will be about 500B by 2030.

Now, let's assume that Lucid gets a 15B evaluation when the CCIV merger goes through. We have 200M shares of CCIV worth 2B after warrants are exercised, so we take 2B/15B and we get 13.3% ownership of the total company.

Now, a market cap of 500B x 13.3% = 650M.

650M / 200M shares equals a share price of $325 per share.

If you buy 2,000 shares of CCIV at 23.50 per share today you will invest 47K. In 9 years I think those shares will be worth at least 650K.

But let's cater to the bears and say that Lucid achieves only 1/4 of the market share of Tesla. Fine, we have a price point of $162 in 2030. Your 2,000 shares are worth 324K.

And again, to cater to the bears let's assume that LUCID gets only 1/8th of Tesla's market share. Fine, we have a price point of $81 per share by 2030. Your 2,000 shares are worth 162K.

But let's assume for just a moment, that Lucid will get to a 35K model eventually, while still maintaining a premium model in the 150K range. Think of their base model as the iphone SE equivalent to the iphone MAX. You can still have a premium feel and look, while catering to more people.

So, let's consider their factory in AZ that has a final capacity of 400,000 vehicles. They will build a factory in Saudi Arabia and one in China. Do you really think they are only going to have 1/8th the market share of Tesla in 9 years? Lucid will continue to innovate, there's no reason to think this won't be worth at least 1/2 of the market share of Tesla by 2030.

Let's assume that Tesla made 26B revenue in 2020. 800B market cap / 26B equals a factor of about 30X.

So let's assume in 2030 that Lucid is selling 400,000 cars from their Arizona factory. And let's assume that the average price per vehicle is a 60K.( That's a mix of some high end vehicles and low end vehicles). That's 24B annually. Now remember Tesla has a 30X factor, so to appease the bears I will only give a 21x factor. 21x times 24B equals a market cap of 500B or $325 per share!

But remember my friends, that's the capacity of just one factory. Let's assume that the Chinese and Saudi factories have capacity of 200K each. Let's further assume all factories are up and running by 2030 at full capacity. Let's further assume that the average price point drops to 40K. So 40K x 800,000 vehicles equals 32B revenue! Even if you only want to give them a 16x sales valuation you still get a market cap of 500B.

I have given what I think is very reasonable estimates. $325 by 2030 is actually an extremely conservative estimate! We are probably looking at $400-$500 per share by 2030.

So, my recommendation is make sure you have at least 2,000 shares so that by 2030 you can be a Lucid millionaire or "Lucidnaire".

Bulls and bears, wake up!

If you want to comment on my post please be respectful and we can have a conversation. Fair enough?

Im an investor in TSLA for 6 years, and i finally made my stock prediction based on math and my own predictions/assumptions.

Please review it and give kind feedback.

N

Currently TSLA is trading close to $265/share, or about an $880B market cap.

It's a reasonable argument that if an asset can beat the S&P 500 CAGR, then it's a good investment. Given that the S&P typically provides a 5% CAGR, let's see what would be needed for Tesla to achieve a 10% CAGR by, let's say.. end of 2030.

$880B * 1.10^7 = $1.71T market cap, or about $512/share

So how does Tesla make it to a $1.7T market cap in 2030? I'm going to assume a 30 P/E, which everyone will bitch and complain about beause they hate Tesla, but I think there's reasonable arguments for and against 30. The "for" argument being that I believe they'll still be growing EV sales and energy storage products. If a 30 P/E, then Tesla needs:

$1710B / 30 = $57B in gaap earnings

So how much gaap earnings does Tesla make per EV sold? I'll link to a graph of the "TTM avg gaap earnings per EV sold" in the comments

Tesla's current earnings profitability is about $5,600 per EV sold, and it continues to go up over the long term, even if rates have caused a recent drop (earnings per EV maxed out at $10.3k in q1 2022). Let's just assume a long term profitability of $5,700 per EV (super conservative imo). Tesla will need to sell about

$57B earnings / $5,700 earnings per EV = 10M EVs annually

Conclusion: If Tesla sells 10M EVs in 2030, then it is not overvalued today, in fact.. it beats the S&P. This isn't even including profits from the energy storage sector of the business, or the wildcards of robotaxis and bots.

Let’s be honest here. This price surge is absolutely crazy and kinda out of nowhere. Yes I know Hertz has been booking cars, and yes I know the credit score just got higher, which is a big thing to consider for big money in Wall Street. But none of this can justify a 40% increase in such short period of time for a company as big as Tesla.

Just FYI I’m a shareholder of TSLA too and 50% of my portfolio is in Tesla. But still I think this is pure madness. I don’t know what your price targets are, but speaking from an extreme long term investor, I just wish the growth of Tesla can be slower and quieter. I don’t like the noises around Tesla these days.

Tesla is now a 1T company and the entire us stock market is 50T. So I just have an honest question: where do you see Tesla in 5 years? Or perhaps by the year 2025? Do you really see it becoming a 10 T company which (assuming total market cap became 100T due to inflation and various other reasons) consists of 10% of the entire market?

And I don’t really know. I wish this can happen, but maybe I’m a conservative person. I don’t even know anymore.

Hey guys, there is a lot of discussion about teslas price going up and down. But in the end its all just noise. Arguably the greatest investor of our time warren buffet used a buy and hold good companies strategy. Even if you hate elon musk the reality is tesla is a good company. The question is do you believe in their vision.

I personally think tesla is investing for a future economy where they are primary disruptors. And I wouldn't be surprised if they are the most valuable company in the world by 2030.

This is because as many of you may not fully appreciate, tesla has a moat. They own the full ecosystem of technology. They have the charging infrastructure, the manufacturing capacity to build robotaxis/humanoid robots, energy storage, software development, the data, and even lithium production. The fact that tesla owns the full stack of technology gives them a competitive advantage. The robotaxi and humanoid robot industries are going to be the key pillars of the 21st century industrial revolution ushering in a productivity and profit boom.

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/tesla-mizuho-cuts-price-target-194119363.html

Many say they will sell their Tesla shares in 2030, the logic behind this is that in 2030 Tesla will reach maturity like Amazon, Apple and grow at a slower rate (10-30% yoy) so for them whatever price the stock reaches doesn't matter to them, only the year "2030".

But is 2030 the best time to sell? Will Tesla yoy growth justify its stock growth?

Tesla doesn't have a demand problem cause it sells every car it makes, so their main problem is their supply capacity.

So this analysys is based on the Utopia principle that Tesla will have enough demand until 2030 and that it will grow at a 40% rate. And that it will be able to build their factories in 12 months without any geopolitical problem and with swift negotiation with the goverments of all the countries. And with the asumption that Tesla suppliers will be able to grow at a similar rate and that all the copper/alum/etc mines will be able to satisfy the demand.

Important data

Elon said that they will search where to build more factories in 2022 and that they will announce the location in 2023.

The calculation is based on the premise that the factories will be built in 12 months and that they will be able to go at max output instantly. Elon said that they will increase their max output of the factories by 50% next year, so in the calculation in the 1st year the factories will have a max output of 500.000 cars and in the next 750.000.

END OF 2021

Max output: Shanghai 500.000 cars

Max output: Fremont 600.000 cars

Total Max output: 1.100.000 cars

Production: 700.000 cars

Result: Supply meets the demand

END OF 2022

CHINA: 750.000

USA: 900.000

GER: 500.000

TEXAS: 500.000

Total Max output: 2.650.000

Production: 980.000 cars (+40% vs 2021)

END OF 2023 - Tesla announces 2 new factories

CHINA: 750.000

USA: 900.000

TEXAS: 750.000

GER: 750.000

Total max ouput: 3.150.000

Production: 1.372.000

END OF 2024 - 2 new factories go full production

CHINA: 750.000

USA: 900.000

TEXAS: 750.000

GER: 750.000

NEW: 500.000

NEW2: 500.000

TOTAL: 4.150.000

Production: 1.920.800 cars

END OF 2025 - Tesla announces 3 new factories

CHINA: 750.000

USA: 900.000

TEXAS: 750.000

GER: 750.000

NEW: 750.000

NEW2: 750.000

TOTAL: 4.650.000 cars

Production: 2.689.120 cars

END OF 2026 - 3 new factories go full production

CHINA: 750.000

USA: 900.000

TEXAS: 750.000

GER: 750.000

NEW: 750.000

NEW2: 750.000

NEW3: 500.000

NEW4: 500.000

NEW5: 500.000

TOTAL: 6.150.000 cars

Production: 3.764.768 cars

END OF 2027 - Tesla announces 4 new factories

CHINA: 750.000

USA: 900.000

TEXAS: 750.000

GER: 750.000

NEW: 750.000

NEW2: 750.000

NEW3: 750.000

NEW4: 750.000

NEW5: 750.000

TOTAL: 7.150.000 cars

Production: 5.270.675 cars

END OF 2028 - 4 new factories go full production

CHINA: 750.000

USA: 900.000

TEXAS: 750.000

GER: 750.000

NEW: 750.000

NEW2: 750.000

NEW3: 750.000

NEW4: 750.000

NEW5: 750.000

NEW6: 500.000

NEW7: 500.000

NEW8: 500.000

NEW9: 500.000

TOTAL: 9.150.000 cars

Production: 7.378.945 cars

END OF 2029 - Tesla announces 5 new factories

CHINA: 750.000

USA: 900.000

TEXAS: 750.000

GER: 750.000

NEW: 750.000

NEW2: 750.000

NEW3: 750.000

NEW4: 750.000

NEW5: 750.000

NEW6: 750.000

NEW7: 750.000

NEW8: 750.000

NEW9: 750.000

TOTAL: 10.150.000 cars

Production: 10.330.523 cars

END OF 2030 - 5 new factories go full production

CHINA: 750.000

USA: 900.000

TEXAS: 750.000

GER: 750.000

NEW: 750.000

NEW2: 750.000

NEW3: 750.000

NEW4: 750.000

NEW5: 750.000

NEW6: 750.000

NEW7: 750.000

NEW8: 750.000

NEW9: 750.000

NEW10: 500.000

NEW11: 500.000

NEW12: 500.000

NEW13: 500.000

NEW14: 500.000

TOTAL: 12.650.000 cars

Production: 14.462.732 cars

Result: Supply doesnt meet the demand

This shows that in 2030 Tesla wont be able to grow at a 40% rate unless it builds more factories than in this analysis. In the case that Tesla announces a lower number of factories in the next years vs the analysis then their supply wont meet the demand sooner.

In my opinion Tesla is more than capable to built 3-4 factories at the same time, the main problem would be the lack of human resources, regulatory problems like in Germany, negotiation issues, etc, all external problems that Tesla cant do anything about them.

Internal problems like a lack of money for the new factories are not an issue for Tesla.

One main advantage that Tesla has is that they can make the new factory better than the last one, so in 2030 they could need less factories to meet the demand by making each factory produce close to 1M like they aim to do in Fremont, this would offset any external problem like in Germany.

And this is where i ask for help: Has any automaker be able to built 5 factories at the same time? or any other industrial company? Apple, BYD?

In my opinion Tesla is a safe bet until 2025, then we will need to reevaluate it, cause predicting 9 years ahead is just guessing, anything can happen.

In my opinion BYD is the main threat to Tesla. And Starlink is the main threat to Tesla stocks cause even tesla investors will sell some shares and stop buying to buy Starlink shares when it goes public in 5 years.