So I've held Tesla since 2018. The stock has had plenty of ups and downs over time such as the 420 moment, Giga Factory ramp ups, and recent layoffs. Currently my shares have gained around 1800% on the initial investment. This has me wondering is now the time to sell? The current market cap on Tesla is $1.3 trillion USD. I guess my thought process is how much more can Tesla honestly gain over next 12-24 months? Previously we had big product roll outs such as Gigafactories openings, super charger expansion, and new vehicles. The 2024 deliveries where down 1% over previous year. I can see deliveries increasing in the future but I don't see previous growth such as Model Y roll out happening soon. That means Tesla will need to either massively cut costs to raise margins or need a big breakthrough such as full level 5 self driving AI. Tesla's current annual revenue is around $100 billion USD. Google with a market cap of 2.45 trillion has annual revenue of $278 billion USD. Even if Musk's current closeness to Trump administration is helpful I dob't see a way to get revenue anyone near that level and increasing the market cap.

I’m think of making an entry in TSLA after its recent dip. I know it’s a risky short term position but long term it seems like it is positioned for growth.

It has one of the best charging infrastructure in the US, plenty of loyal customers and is market leader in EV. Is there something I’m missing?

Let’s be honest here. This price surge is absolutely crazy and kinda out of nowhere. Yes I know Hertz has been booking cars, and yes I know the credit score just got higher, which is a big thing to consider for big money in Wall Street. But none of this can justify a 40% increase in such short period of time for a company as big as Tesla.

Just FYI I’m a shareholder of TSLA too and 50% of my portfolio is in Tesla. But still I think this is pure madness. I don’t know what your price targets are, but speaking from an extreme long term investor, I just wish the growth of Tesla can be slower and quieter. I don’t like the noises around Tesla these days.

Tesla is now a 1T company and the entire us stock market is 50T. So I just have an honest question: where do you see Tesla in 5 years? Or perhaps by the year 2025? Do you really see it becoming a 10 T company which (assuming total market cap became 100T due to inflation and various other reasons) consists of 10% of the entire market?

And I don’t really know. I wish this can happen, but maybe I’m a conservative person. I don’t even know anymore.

Production dropping, softening demand, price cuts, accelerated depreciation, BYD's market share and Musk's leveraging AI for voting power... Next year's guidance, or lack thereof, totally changed the game for Tesla. Where do we see the stock settling now. It's -27% YTD. I thought it was around 175, but the bears have gotten more bearish and with hopes for rate cuts abating as GDP grew 3.3 and disinflation chugging on, I'm not sure anymore. Where do you see Tesla's stock landing?

This is from CNBC Pro.....

Key Takeaway:

*JPMorgan cuts Tesla's price target to $130, predicting a 30% drop due to profit concerns and high valuation at 56 times 2024 consensus earnings.

*Despite a 20% increase in vehicle volume, Tesla's Q4 automotive revenue grew only by 1%, indicating price cuts aren't boosting revenue significantly.

*Tesla's operating profit forecast for this year is now $11.4 billion, down from an October estimate of $28.5 billion, yet share prices remain similar.

JPMorgan Lowers Price Target for Tesla:

JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman cuts the stock price target for Tesla by about 4% to $130, implying a 30% downside from Thursday’s close of $182.63. The reduction follows softer than expected earnings and a warning from Tesla that vehicle volume growth "may be notably lower" this year. Despite these warnings, Tesla's stock closed down only 12%, suggesting further downside potential according to Brinkman.

Falling Profits and Valuation Concerns:

Tesla's strategy of slashing vehicle prices has not translated into higher revenue, with actual automotive revenue growing by only 1% despite a 20% increase in vehicle volume in the fourth quarter. Analysts have substantially lowered profit expectations for Tesla since October 2022, with operating profit forecasted at $11.4 billion compared to the previous estimate of $28.5 billion for 2024.

Brinkman rates Tesla as underweight due to above-average execution risk and valuation concerns that seem to be pricing in significant upside related to expansion into mass-market segments beyond their volume forecasts for the Model 3.

STREET VIEWS

Ryan Brinkman, JPMorgan Analyst (Bearish on Tesla):

"Tesla profit expectations have fallen, but even after Thursday's sell-off, the stock to us seems in comparison to have hardly noticed, suggesting plenty of further downside potential." "Tesla did not trade profits for sales as measured in revenue — it has traded profits for sales as measured in unit volume." "Although both technology and execution risk seem substantially less than was once feared, expansion into higher volume segments with lower price points seems fraught with greater risk relative to demand, execution, and competition."

..........End of Article.........

CNBC Pro: https://wallstreet-now.com/en/articles/2024/01/26/jp-morgan-predicts-teslas-30-price-plunge-on-profit-woes

As TSLA investors, I obviously believe in the future of the company.

Where do you see the TSLA stock price in 5 years? In 10 years?

It’s obviously all pure speculation, but I would love to hear your guys’ opinions on Tesla’s future.

TSLA surged against the market trend today, reaching a new all-time high of $491.5, while Elon Musk's net worth soared to over $670 billion. This stands in stark contrast to the company's core business struggles, including a nearly 40% drop in European sales and institutional forecasts of declining Q4 deliveries. The truth is: Wall Street has completely abandoned fundamental analysis of TSLA's automotive business. They are making a massive gamble that Musk will successfully transform into the core of an AI empire $1.6 trillion market capitalization is just the beginning. What they truly value is the $1 trillion profit potential of the FSD software, the multi-trillion-dollar market for CyberCab and Optimus robots by 2026, and the epic narrative of the SpaceX space economy behind it all. This high-risk gamble, which completely ties personal wealth, grand narratives, and extreme valuations together, means that TSLA is a bet that will either reach $3 trillion or see its dreams shattered.

At this point, would you buy at a high price, or would you wait and see?

An analysis by someone I know, what do you think about it:

Mid- to late April will be the next earnings report and I expect that it will not be good. With rare exceptions, stocks go way down on poor earnings reports. I think that I will just hold or possibly sell before the earnings report. If I sold now then I would probably not invest in Tesla again I don't think anything will improve Tesla sales in Germany or Europe. Here, Americans have short memories and will continue buying Teslas but maybe fewer than before. There will need to be price reductions which will hurt profitability and thus the stock price will go down. Long term, meaning the next 2-3 years, Tesla must execute nearly perfectly the new robo-taxi service and then the android. Both are extremely risky and will have competition from other companies. The auto business alone is not enough to justify even the current (lower) stock price. However, their energy business is continuing to grow in the US although it's not as "sexy" as the other parts.

Hey fellow Redditors!

I’m curious to hear your thoughts on Tesla and whether you’re feeling bullish about its long-term potential.

With the electric vehicle market expanding and Tesla’s continuous innovations in renewable energy, some investors see promising signs.

However, concerns about competition and market dynamics also exist.

What’s your take on TSLA’s future?

I think they were already big company during that time. What changed and Tesla went a lot.

Tesla’s market cap has pushed up toward ~$1.6T as analysts raise price targets, largely tied to optimism around robotaxis and autonomy. The narrative hasn’t changed much: long-term optionality from autonomy versus near-term pressure from slowing sales, vandalism issues, and margin compression. What’s interesting is how little the market seems to care about current delivery softness compared to future possibilities. EU approval for Model Y L and demonstrations of driverless deliveries are being treated as validation points, even though full commercial rollout is still uncertain. At this point, Tesla feels less like an auto stock and more like a long-dated bet on software, robotics, and regulation moving in the right direction. The valuation assumes a lot goes right the debate is whether that optionality deserves to be priced in now or later.

Due to the nature of my work I cannot sell uncovered options. I need 100 shares. I currently own 45 with an average buy price of $370.

It's currently at $170. If I didn't own the stock, I would buy it now.

Is it worth buying because it's cheap? I would buy another 55, just so I can sell 1 option contract OTM, 1 month out for a measly 30-100 bucks or so.

Due to the nature of my job, I can only do 30 days or longer selling covered calls, so the best strategy woukd be to let them expire. I also am not allowed to buy options less than 1 year out.

My overall portfolio is still up, but this one weighs heavy on me. Lol.

Edit: for those asking about the restrictions, I work at a BD and cannot speculate (thus no naked calls) or day trade or do anything that would appear that I am manipulating the market. Everything I do must be pre approved as well. Yes, a wall street person can lose money in their PA. None of this is financial advice. Please don't do what I'm doing lol.

Edit 2: BD = broker-dealer. I'm not a baby daddy or a black disciple or in business development.

Been a TSLA investor since 2017. This week I made the decision to pull out of the company (over 1,500 shares). After being up 800%+ at one point, I left after it came crashing back down to ~180%. I did not incur a loss, I am just not walking away with retirement levels of money that I could have possibly walked away with a mere year ago. Dumb? Maybe. Did I need to sell? No. Does it give me peace? Absolutely.

Being a TSLA investor was interesting. Elon has always been Elon and I believe the company is indeed positioned for long-term growth (even now). There were plenty of ups and downs, but I never 'doubted my vibe' and the Elon antics up until the latter half of 2022 I would have described almost as eccentric. The guy was an idiot from time to time, but was definitely doing something right. Tesla is competitive, innovative, and is a leader in the EV space. Long-term, the company has a ton of upward potential. Emphasis on the word 'potential.'

However, there has been a change. Things with Elon have certainly become more radical and it seems that every single day there is a new headline that is slowly destroying the brand. Now, before we get into the whole "but Elon isn't Tesla!" let me tell you the incredible importance of consumer sentiment and branding.

I do not imagine Tesla ever being divorced from Elon Musk. When you think "Tesla" you cannot escape thinking "Elon Musk." It is like trying to think about Microsoft without thinking or mentioning Bill Gates or some other strong brand-to-noun association. Go ahead and do yourself a favor and search Tesla now and see what comes up. Headline after headline is about Musk. This is not good for the brand, especially considering their consumer segment is actively being isolated.

Now, one must ask: why do people buy things? There's a wide array of reasons, but I believe fundamentally it boils down to the value and reputation of the product. The value has a mix of factors that range from price, functionality, importance, etc. and reputation can be understood as how the brand is perceived, how the consumer is perceived as a result of owning the product, and how the consumer feels owning the product. This is where I lose the belief in the growth potential despite the positioning. Simply put, I do not think consumers are going to feel good about buying a Tesla with the negativity surrounding Elon.

A mere year ago, if a person bought a Tesla or owned a Tesla, what would this say about a person? How would that person feel about that purchase? Tesla was the cool, sophisticated brand that was essentially symbolic of changing the world. Just look at Tesla's mission statement: "Tesla's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy through increasingly affordable electric vehicles in addition to renewable energy generation and storage. Tesla is accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy."

Where is this brand now? How would a person feel now? Ask yourself, if someone pulled up in a Tesla what would you think about them? What feelings would it invoke?

Often times, we want to distance ourselves from feelings and sentiment and put an enormous emphasis on reason, facts, and data. This is not necessarily wrong, but this is certainly also not unique to the financial realm and TSLA has a history of this as well. We had people putting in orders for vehicles that were not being produced, people YOLOing their life savings into the stock because they believed in the future growth of the company before the company was seriously competitive, an unprecedented cult-like following that boosted the stock and gave the company an incredible amount of capital, and so on. Yet, when we look at TSLA now and think about the projected growth, why think people will actually want to continue to buy this product? Who is going to spend the money of a luxury vehicle to suddenly be associated with a person that people are increasingly viewing in a negative way? Not me. Apparently not my friends or co-workers either who were previously considering a Tesla and now want nothing to do with it. And apparently not my friend who is a Tesla owner and is starting to feel embarrassed for driving one. We can talk about how "dumb" these people are, but we cannot escape these are legitimate and valid sentiments toward the brand that have real costs associated with them.

The sentiment cannot be captured in a graph right now. You have no data points on the would-be consumers because they are now never-were consumers. This data is only going to show in their sales. If sales continue to go up, then it seems reasonable to say that consumer sentiment has not reached a level where people feel so negatively about the product that they stopped buying. What I am suggesting here is that it my belief that this will inevitably happen because of the intimate link between Tesla and Elon. Tesla could get a new CEO, change leadership, etc., but I do not see them escaping this link and I believe it will ultimately be the detriment to the brand. Sales will not completely stop, but the growth projections that the stock relied heavily on I believe will certainly slow a lot sooner than shareholders anticipated and if it ever does reach previous target prices of $250+, this will not be for a long time.

I'm not bullish or bearish on the stock. I do not think the company is going to suddenly vanish and the stock will drop to <$50 (at least I hope not for many of the investors I know). However, I also do not think the growth will be as aggressive as it once could have been and this is going to limit the stock in many ways. If we factor in slowed growth from the recession, one must keep in mind that this is just more time for Elon to further damage the brand between now and when people are in better buying conditions. What's next? Apparently removing Twitter's suicide prevention feature. Maybe tomorrow it's denying climate change and next month will be another stock sell off after yet another promise of not doing so. Though, ultimately, this is no longer my problem. The integrity of my financial future is no longer jeopardized by a guy that is becoming increasingly unhinged without the board properly exercising their duty to act in the interest of shareholders.

My thoughts on being a TSLA investor is what my mother used to say: it's been real, it's been fun, but it hasn't been real fun.

Would love to hear your thoughts about TSLA as a long term investment.

Especially for someone that bought just before the recent dip (avg $298) and down almost 13%

Is it a good idea to keep holding and ride it or just sell and move on to a more stable stock?

I’m playing the long term game, just curious if holding this stock is worth it at this price.

Edit: I thank each and everyone of you for the spending time on replying to this post! This by far is the best community for sharing investment knowledge on Reddit.

I only invested a small amount of my portfolio into TSLA the bulk is in VTI and VGT, I’ll hold it for one year and see since the consensus is its a great company with more potential for growth, still risky since it has big goals yet to achieve as well as steady growth in competition, but risk comes with every investment and this company has been delivering historically.

Tesla’s recent numbers create a split picture. Sales are clearly under pressure, dropping 30% this year with an even sharper 48.5 percent decline in Europe as competition tightens. Margins are sliding too, with gross margin at 17.01% and operating margin at 4.74%, which I think shows how hard the environment has become.

But at the same time, I noticed Tesla moving forward in areas it believes will define the company’s next phase. The robotaxi rollout in Austin is expanding toward a 60-vehicle fleet by December 2025, with plans to push into eight to ten metro areas after that. I saw Analysts still backing the progress they’re seeing in FSD, calling it the point where Tesla still leads. And even with revenue falling, free cash flow tells a different story, rising 540.61%, showing that Tesla still has the financial room to execute its next big moves.

some activities adds another piece. latest filings included two transactions: one stock award valued at $141.57 billion and one stock gift with no reported value, and some little ones happening on ongoings cexs futures stock rush challenges in places like bitget. Total transaction value reached over $141,568,600,887.36. Elon Musk received 423,743,904 shares on November 6, 2025, valued at $141.57 billion based on a price of $334.09 per share. Kimbal Musk gifted 14,785 shares on November 10 with no dollar amount attached. The award accounted for 100 percent of the reported value, while the gift represented zero. The average value across both filings stood at $70.78 billion, shaped almost entirely by the single award. Both transactions were routine, with no unusual indicators.

Looking at all of this, the setup becomes interesting from a trading perspective. When sales are falling but cash flow is rising, when margins are tightening but new segments like robotaxis are expanding, the chart stops being a simple up or down call. It becomes a question of timing the inflection. Do you position early on the belief that FSD and autonomy will eventually outweigh the pressure on the auto side, or do you wait for proof that margins can stabilise again. In moments like this I think small, calculated position will make sense just to stay exposed, or does it require more patience.

If you were placing a trade here, would you lean toward catching a potential early reversal, or would you stay on the sidelines until the sales trend shows a bottom?

I’ve always felt Tesla is one of the strangest stocks I follow. Every few weeks the headlines turn super bearish or sentiment feels awful, and somehow the price just refuses to die. Since October it’s actually held up better than I expected: it was around $456 back then, dropped into the high $380s in November, bounced back to ~430, and now it’s sitting in the mid-440s. After all that noise, it’s basically only a small step down from October.

What’s weird to me is that the news in the same period hasn’t sounded great. I remember a bunch of pieces about “margins getting crushed” and “Tesla losing its EV lead” as cheaper EVs (especially from China) grabbed share. In places like France and Sweden, sales were down something like 40–50% YoY, and I just saw another article saying that in the UK, November sales were down about 19%, yet TSLA still roughly up 4%.

After Q3, the stock did sell off for a bit, which kind of matched the mood: GAAP operating income down ~40% YoY, operating margin ~5.8%, total gross margin ~18%, auto gross margin ex-credits only mid-teens vs close to 30% at the peak. Revenue hit a record, but net income was still down ~35–40% YoY. The one real bright spot was they printed almost $4B in free cash flow and have over $40B in cash, so the balance sheet doesn’t really scare me.

Personally I still see Tesla as a genuinely “very good” auto + energy business, I just can’t really call it cheap here with a big margin of safety. For me to get more comfortable, I’d want either a clear trend of margin recovery, or the AI / FSD / robotics story actually showing up as a visible line on the P&L instead of just keynotes and hype.

So I’m honestly curious: if Tesla mostly stays a really good auto + energy company for the rest of this decade and robotaxis / robots aren’t huge before 2030, what kind of PE would you put on that? Under that assumption, is today’s price cheap, fair, or just straight-up expensive to you? And if I butchered any of these stats, feel free to correct me in the comments. aslo anyone wants to dig into the UK stuff, this was the dashboard I was looking at: Tesla UK sales down ~19% in November, New Automotive data shows.

I cannot wrap my head around Tesla’s valuation. The company sells cars. That’s mostly it. Yet the market acts like Tesla has already reinvented transportation, energy, robotics, and artificial intelligence, all at once.

Tesla sells a fraction of the cars Toyota does. A fraction. Toyota is out here delivering millions more vehicles every year, yet Tesla’s market cap is treated like Toyota is the junior player trying to catch up.

Profit margins have been falling because Tesla keeps slashing prices just to move product. If this were any other car company, that would be a bad sign. For Tesla, investors cheer like it unlocked infinite wealth.

The “no competition” narrative died years ago, but the stock still behaves like Tesla owns the entire EV future and everyone else is building museum pieces.

Everything bullish seems to rely on sci-fi promises. Robotaxis everywhere. Full Self Driving that magically becomes perfect. Tesla somehow turning into a software licensing giant. The energy business transforming the grid overnight. It all sounds cool… but none of it is meaningfully happening today.

So what I’m trying to understand is this:

• Is there any economic basis for pricing Tesla like it already dominates industries it can barely prove it belongs in? Or is this valuation just a collective hallucination powered by hype and Elon’s tweets?

I’d honestly love to hear what the rational explanation is supposed to be.