Hi gang,

I posed two different models in the last 6 years that I'm continually revisiting and updating based on new data that's available to me.

Here's the first one below from 6 years ago where I attached a $450 price target by end of 2018 https://old.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1k15cb/my_model_of_tsla_through_2013/?st=k5h2987i&sh=78a9694b

Here's the second one I posted a year later with a price target of $800 by end of 2020 https://old.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1yn1kx/my_revised_model_of_tesla_tsla_by_2023/?st=k5h26rti&sh=43f78d64

It appears that my models are running roughly a year behind of where my assumptions are ending up, so I figured I'd share my latest model for your viewing and entertainment pleasure.

In no way am I trying to insinuate that my models are somehow predicting where Tesla's price is going to end up - I'm simply sharing my thought process with you fine folks in the investing community to gather feedback and understand different points of view.

See below model: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GUPfQhpFfax8lYC4iyvYT-gD_i9LIRkngFB_o6MZXA8/edit?usp=sharing

My broad assumptions:

• There will be a 90,000,000 global new vehicle market in 2028

• Roughly 50% of those sales will be electric

• Tesla will capture 17% of the EV market which is roughly 7.6 million cars a year

• I'm assuming a new vehicle introduced in 2025 that will capture the truly affordable car market that will be designed in China and released for worldwide consumption (average of $20k per car without autonomous features). This is called Cybercar in the model

• Autonomous vehicle revenue will begin to kick in around the year 2025

• By 2028, roughly 33% of Tesla's new fleet sales (7.6 * .33 = 2.3m) will be generating some level of revenue for the company as autonomous revenue. For this model I'm assuming $7.3k of sales from autonomous per unit on average at 80% margin

• I'm assuming roughly 1% dilution YoY

• I'm assuming ~300k Tesla operated RoboTaxis manufactured yearly by Tesla to cover gaps in coverage in the self driving network

• I'm assuming Tesla Energy to grow to generate similar levels of sales from the Energy business by 2028 as compared to Auto

• i'm assuming a total operating income % of sales of 17.3% on $508b of revenue by 2028

• I'm assuming a 38 P/E multiple on $87b of yearly earnings by 2028

That covers all the big picture stuff as it pertains to what the model takes into account.

The price is obviously eye popping and would give Tesla a market cap of ~3.5 trillion. However, the way I think about this company is drawing a parallel to Apple, which is a Hardware company that has a SaaS (Software as a Service) component bolted on top of it selling units that generate vastly more $ per unit sold, and is entering an entirely disrupted market in the last 100 years that is about as large as it gets on the auto side - and then you add energy on top of it.

Let me know your thoughts.

EDIT: Thanks for the silver!