Looks like little pull back happening tomorrow..
So I've held Tesla since 2018. The stock has had plenty of ups and downs over time such as the 420 moment, Giga Factory ramp ups, and recent layoffs. Currently my shares have gained around 1800% on the initial investment. This has me wondering is now the time to sell? The current market cap on Tesla is $1.3 trillion USD. I guess my thought process is how much more can Tesla honestly gain over next 12-24 months? Previously we had big product roll outs such as Gigafactories openings, super charger expansion, and new vehicles. The 2024 deliveries where down 1% over previous year. I can see deliveries increasing in the future but I don't see previous growth such as Model Y roll out happening soon. That means Tesla will need to either massively cut costs to raise margins or need a big breakthrough such as full level 5 self driving AI. Tesla's current annual revenue is around $100 billion USD. Google with a market cap of 2.45 trillion has annual revenue of $278 billion USD. Even if Musk's current closeness to Trump administration is helpful I dob't see a way to get revenue anyone near that level and increasing the market cap.
Tesla (TSLA) has been one of the most watched stocks in the market, and its recent price action is setting up some interesting trade opportunities. On the fundamental side, Tesla continues to dominate the EV market with strong deliveries, expanding Gigafactory production, and innovation in battery and autonomous driving technology. Its energy division provides additional diversification, though margins are under pressure from rising costs and increasing competition from EV peers like Rivian and Lucid. Analysts remain split on valuation: some see upside as Tesla captures more of the global EV market, while others warn that stretched multiples may leave little room for error if guidance or macro conditions slip.
From a technical perspective, TSLA is currently testing resistance around $310–$320, which aligns with prior all-time highs. Support zones to watch are $285–$290, where the 50-day moving average and previous consolidation levels converge. RSI readings are approaching overbought territory, suggesting short-term caution, while strong volume on recent rallies indicates bullish momentum may still persist. Traders could look for breakouts above $320 with confirmation of volume for a potential momentum trade, or consider buying near $285–$290 with tight risk management if the stock retraces to support. For options traders, vertical spreads or protective puts could hedge against volatility while maintaining exposure to upside.
In terms of strategy, long-term investors may focus on Tesla’s growth trajectory, while swing traders may exploit these technical levels for short-term plays. Macro factors such as interest rate expectations, EV incentives, and broader tech rotation will also influence price action. Personally, I’m monitoring TSLA alongside other large-cap EV and tech stocks to evaluate relative strength and potential rotation opportunities.
I’d love to hear how others are approaching Tesla: Are you playing momentum, value, or hedging strategies? Which support and resistance levels are you watching, and how are you managing risk given the stock’s volatility?
I’m guessing it’ll keep dropping until market opens, then immediately spikes up. Once it goes up $5 and stabilizes itself, it will slowly inch up over the course of the day. Around 3pm it will either dart down or dart Up.
Teslas sales are falling month on month around the world. Their forecast for this year is 1.8m cars but my research points to sales of about half that figure just 850k cars.
I'm looking for research on sales figures and your judged number of sales for the next 12 months.
I'm a long term investor but I do want to take advantage of irrational stock prices.
When it peaked Nov 5, 2021, by what metrics could we have determined that the price deviated too far from reality (based too much on optimism about the future). Obviously, all stocks have optimism about the future baked in on probability of future cash flows, when they get realized and at what discount rates, but market makers/institutional money must have some ball park figure where they think it's time to take profits and rug pull retail bag holders.
Thinking back to that last peak, even if we didn't catch the very top but took some profit somewhere around that range, we'd have more dry powder to buy in around the 2 troughs 113 and 140 (again nobody knows the bottom, but when the P/E was in the 30s around Jan 2023, it was a no brainer to load up). So while I don't believe in day trading or options (coin flip gambling IMO), I do think even as a long term investor, there should be points where exuberance from retail hype far exceeds fundamentals, and as a rational investor it makes sense to take some money off the table. What do you guys look for (% deviation from an sma/ema, P/E, other?)
Not Financial Adivce. Price Target Tesla Stock 50-100$ by sometime 2025.
1 Tesla is currently a horrendous value play in the short term to medium term due to speculative long term growth catalysts.
2. Tesla was expected to grow 50% over year next year.
3. Cars overpriced as shit compared to increasingly similar market counterparts. Hyundai Ioniq and Ford get similar milage
4. Growth estimates started changing sometime in q3. Now currently expected ~20% growth in revenue. Possible
5. Other cars are expected to grow fast in self driving.
6. Used cars saturating market.
7. Macro risks - CC/student loans(payments just started) at all time highs. Unemployment ticking up. Market at all time highs carried by chips. Fed rate hike lag effect.
8. Elon wants more shares
9. Sales causing more margins to reduce.
10) Losing market shares overseas rapidly to china. BYD is oging to be a killer once it gets Auto driving.
11) Alot of tesla models were disqualified for the tax credit according to Elon in 2024. Maybe due to china sourcing
https://postimg.cc/gw8rf4qK
Once this sub starts shitting on a stock the way you’re doing, I know it’s time to inverse. Tesla to the moon in 2025
Just like Dan Ives, arguably Tesla's biggest bull said : earnings call was Elon's opportunity to deliver and it was a train wreck.
Entirely depends on whether Tesla investors choose to value it like a car company or a tech company. If a car company, expect it to dip to the low $100 level. If a tech company, low $200 levels. If it cannot maintain its high growth AND move its margin up to the 20% levels, it's likely to be valued more like a car company.
Production dropping, softening demand, price cuts, accelerated depreciation, BYD's market share and Musk's leveraging AI for voting power... Next year's guidance, or lack thereof, totally changed the game for Tesla. Where do we see the stock settling now. It's -27% YTD. I thought it was around 175, but the bears have gotten more bearish and with hopes for rate cuts abating as GDP grew 3.3 and disinflation chugging on, I'm not sure anymore. Where do you see Tesla's stock landing?
This is from CNBC Pro.....
Key Takeaway:
*JPMorgan cuts Tesla's price target to $130, predicting a 30% drop due to profit concerns and high valuation at 56 times 2024 consensus earnings.
*Despite a 20% increase in vehicle volume, Tesla's Q4 automotive revenue grew only by 1%, indicating price cuts aren't boosting revenue significantly.
*Tesla's operating profit forecast for this year is now $11.4 billion, down from an October estimate of $28.5 billion, yet share prices remain similar.
JPMorgan Lowers Price Target for Tesla:
JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman cuts the stock price target for Tesla by about 4% to $130, implying a 30% downside from Thursday’s close of $182.63. The reduction follows softer than expected earnings and a warning from Tesla that vehicle volume growth "may be notably lower" this year. Despite these warnings, Tesla's stock closed down only 12%, suggesting further downside potential according to Brinkman.
Falling Profits and Valuation Concerns:
Tesla's strategy of slashing vehicle prices has not translated into higher revenue, with actual automotive revenue growing by only 1% despite a 20% increase in vehicle volume in the fourth quarter. Analysts have substantially lowered profit expectations for Tesla since October 2022, with operating profit forecasted at $11.4 billion compared to the previous estimate of $28.5 billion for 2024.
Brinkman rates Tesla as underweight due to above-average execution risk and valuation concerns that seem to be pricing in significant upside related to expansion into mass-market segments beyond their volume forecasts for the Model 3.
STREET VIEWS
Ryan Brinkman, JPMorgan Analyst (Bearish on Tesla):
"Tesla profit expectations have fallen, but even after Thursday's sell-off, the stock to us seems in comparison to have hardly noticed, suggesting plenty of further downside potential." "Tesla did not trade profits for sales as measured in revenue — it has traded profits for sales as measured in unit volume." "Although both technology and execution risk seem substantially less than was once feared, expansion into higher volume segments with lower price points seems fraught with greater risk relative to demand, execution, and competition."
..........End of Article.........
CNBC Pro: https://wallstreet-now.com/en/articles/2024/01/26/jp-morgan-predicts-teslas-30-price-plunge-on-profit-woes
Rn sitting at 218$. I’m buying a ton, seems like a bargain atm
Tesla's stock price has fallen for six consecutive trading days. I just came across an unusual piece of news about Tesla (TSLA) and wanted to share it for discussion.
Tesla recently proactively disclosed analysts' forecasts for its fourth-quarter deliveries, breaking from its usual low-key approach. According to these projections, fourth-quarter deliveries may decline by approximately 15% year-over-year, a rare occurrence in Tesla's history.
Key factors contributing to demand pressure include:
Phasing Out Tax Credits: The gradual withdrawal of electric vehicle subsidies in certain markets significantly impacts marginal demand
Intensifying Competition: Traditional automakers and new energy vehicle manufacturers are simultaneously ramping up efforts, fueling ongoing price wars
Diminishing demand pull-forward effect: Previous price cuts have already captured some future demand
This “pre-disclosure” strategy has also sparked market speculation:
Is Tesla actively managing market expectations?
Does this signal greater near-term fundamental pressures than previously anticipated?
Or is it merely paving the way for a reset in the 2025 growth trajectory?
From a trading and investment perspective, this could yield two starkly different interpretations:
Bearish View: The high-growth narrative is weakening, necessitating a re-evaluation of valuations.
Bullish View: Releasing negative news early could actually mitigate the impact after earnings reports.
Tesla currently sits at the intersection of macroeconomic factors, industry competition, and its own growth trajectory. Heightened short-term volatility may become the norm.
What are your thoughts?
Is this expectation management, or a signal of a demand inflection point? Share your bullish or bearish perspectives.