I know it might be too early to know “why” he completed military actions in the country, but I’m just curious as to where/how this all started?
https://www.reddit.com/r/news/s/BiyKcAYStI
With the swift and unexpected capture of Maduro, it would have been logical for the United States to support the winner of the 2024 Venezuelan election, Edmundo Urrutia. However, it apeprs that Trump is instead attempting to support VP Delcy Rodriguez, with not so veiled threats from the Trump Administration to force compliance with US demands
What options does the leadership of a nation such as Venezuela - or for that matter, any other nation that fears unilateral action from the Trump Adminstration - have to deter him? The North Korean example demonstrates that possessing Weapons of Mass Descruction are sufficient... while the Iranian example demonstrates that not having them but *pursuing* them is insuffient.
Obviously a direct military confrontation is unlikely to be successful, but Ukraine has demonstrated that it is possible to wound a stronger nation using unconvential tactics. Are there unconvential capabilities that are available to weaker nations to deter the Trump Administration? How would they be demonstrated in a way that deters but does not trigger an immediate and overwhelming attack?
The abduction of Maduro doesn’t achieve anything by itself, so we're yet to see:
whether it will result in a democratic revolution in Venezuela or conversely in a strengthening of the Venezuelan dictatorship;
and whether the shift of Venezuela’s politics will be beneficial or harmful to the US, its allies, and its adversaries;
But Trump’s arbitrary-whimsical lawless actions already certainly:
united previously rather neutral to the USA South American and other countries against the now perceived as a threat United States, meaning they will try to obtain nukes and avoid strengthening the US, consequently may prioritize cooperation and trade with Russia and China instead of the USA;
made the US allies wary of the US, meaning they will try to obtain nukes and avoid strengthening the US, consequently may prioritize cooperation and trade among themselves over the USA;
provided diplomatic and propagandistic excuses for China, Russia, and other the US adversaries to lawlessly invade other countries without the UN approval similarly to the USA, so if China invades Taiwan, or Russia invades even more of its neighbors, Chinese and Russians will always have an excuse: "The USA did it, so why can’t we?" with the only difference that unlike utterly incompetent Trump China and Russia may actually gain something from their military operations;
Meaning the US has already paid and will continue to pay substantially for decades to come for this Trump’s lawless careless recklessness, but whether this current Trump’s costly gigantic failure will bring any positive consequences we’re yet to see.
Also, the increasing lawlessness of the US military is an increasingly gigantic threat to the US democracy — either Americans swiftly end the US dictatorship politically via elections and implement the institutional preventive measures-mechanisms-procedures or the probability of lawless abuse of the US military against the US population to cement the US dictatorship will continue to grow steadily, increasing the risk of America following the descending trajectory of many other former democracies, including Venezuela under Maduro or Germany under Hitler. … :(
We’ve all read the news, but what are Trumps real motivations. What do you guys think he wants?
Flooding the global oil supply will lower prices, or more importantly, give Trump additional control over the global economy through the oil supply. This may potentially be used as a bargaining chip (e.g. to weaken Iranian, Russian, Chinese economies, or to strengthen the dollar through Tariff style manipulation and leverage). Funds like USO and UCO will be interesting to watch - personally i’m staying away.
Not only does Venezuela hold oil, but it also holds lots of gold. While Gold is currently trading at all time highs (and many economies like BRICS have been stocking up on reserves), Trump may wish to crash the gold price to ‘reinforce’ the safety of the dollar. Or, again, he may wish to leverage control. I am holding IAUM, but may sell some to resize. Again interesting to watch.
Some have also speculated a digital currency backed by tangible (potentially Venezuelan) assets - I don’t really buy this but its interesting nonetheless.
US grid capacity shortages have been noticeable and heavy generators are already being rolled out to fuel Data Centres and AI Infrastructure. As mentioned by Energy Secretary Chris Wright, ‘massive fleets of diesel and gas’ generators (35GW massive) may help to bridge the gap until renewable energy / grid upgrades materialise. It would cost a huge amount to buy that much fuel, if only I could get it for free… I think CAT is a miss for other reasons, but GNRC and CMI might be good plays given this background.
All of this can be very damaging to China, as well as the fact that China has been ‘renting’ Venezuelan resources through loans granting them rights to gold, oil and rare earth materials. While I don’t think that the Rare Earths are particularly significant, snubbing China is still useful for Trump in terms of resources and ego. There may be a rise in the likes of USAR…
Personally I believe that the gold price and ETFs will start to plateau, and pending Trumps actions, maybe even fall.
Oil ETFs will probably remain fairly stable until Trump does something, although I believe that stocks such as HAL or CVX would be solid investments over the next two years.
Did i miss anything?
What is America doing in Venezuela?
On Jan. 3, the Trump administration launched an operation that ended with the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, who is now in New York City on narcoterrorism and weapons charges. “We’re going to run it, essentially, until such time as a proper transition can take place,” Trump said.
Mr. Trump’s policy here is strange for a number of reasons: The U.S. is suffering from a fentanyl crisis, but Venezuela is not known as a fentanyl producer. Venezuela’s oil reserves are not the path to geopolitical power that they might have been in the 1970s. Mr. Maduro was a brutal and corrupt dictator, but Mr. Trump has left his No. 2 in charge. And Mr. Trump ran for office promising fewer foreign entanglements — not more.
So why Venezuela, and why now? That’s the question we look at in this conversation.
Jonathan Blitzer is a staff writer at The New Yorker. He has profiled Stephen Miller and has been following the U.S. military’s drug boat strikes in the Caribbean, as well as the Trump administration’s evolving agenda in Latin America. He’s also the author of the book “Everyone Who Is Gone Is Here: The United States, Central America, and the Making of a Crisis.
Mentioned:
Everyone Who Is Gone Is Here by Jonathan Blitzer
Alien Enemies Act
1979/1980 Refugee Act
Monroe Doctrine
“How Stephen Miller Manipulates Donald Trump to Further His Immigration Obsession” by Jonathan Blitzer
“Who’s Running Venezuela After the Fall of Maduro?” by Jonathan Blitzer
Book Recommendations:
The Known World by Edward P. Jones
What You Have Heard Is True by Carolyn Forché
The Spy and the Traitor by Ben Macintyre
Just stated in press conference at Mar-a-Lago. Fascinating development in the American activity in the region.
https://www.npr.org/2026/01/03/g-s1-104346/trump-venezuela-maduro-press-conference