September 18, 2025 - The U.S. has not been in an economic recession since 2022.

The sharp contrast between the index’s average recession path and the six-month path in 2022 suggests that a recession is unlikely to have started in first quarter 2022, despite two consecutive quarters of declining GDP in the first half of 2022.

According to the BEA's advance ... been revised downward to a decline of only 0.6% following a 1.6% decline in GDP reported for the first quarter of 2022....

September 26, 2024 - One of the adjustments: GDP is now estimated to have grown in the second quarter of 2022 at a 0.3% annual rate. It had previously been estimated to have shrunk at a 0.6% rate, the second of two quarters of contraction.

In short, we are positive about the economy’s fundamentals and believe they can provide ballast in the event of a recession. Nonetheless, the bear-market bottom for stocks may still be 5%-10% away. Investors should remain patient and consider using tax-efficient rebalancing, including by harvesting losses, to neutralize their major overweight and underweight exposures. And, as we continue to emphasize, pursue maximum asset-class diversification. This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from June 27, 2022, “Inflation-Driven Recessions are Different.” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy.

Chicago Booth. (June 12, 2022). Most likely starting quarter of the next recession according to macroeconomists in the United States, as of June 2022 [Graph]. In Statista.

July 28, 2022 - There are many different signs but there’s no one indicator.” During the second quarter of 2022, growth slowed at a 0.9% annualized rate, which some economists would consider to be the start of the recession.

July 1, 2022 - chief economist, writes that “economic momentum will likely protect the U.S. economy from recession in 2022.” She puts the probability of a recession at 40 percent, adding that “it’s hard to see the economy walking out of 2023 unscathed.”

Consumer prices will stabilize at 5% by the end of 2022. Inflation will continue into 2023, and unemployment will rise. In the next five years, inflation will remain at the level of 4% per year.8 · Against the background of moderately optimistic assessments of the economic growth prospects, ...

January 26, 2023 - "In times of economic hardship, you see pretty significant booms in the business," Usher says. "So I'm kind of lucky in that regard." Many business forecasters think the economy is likely to slide into a recession this year.

September 12, 2022 - The next release of GDP growth for the second quarter of 2022 is scheduled on September 28. These indicators signal a robust outlook for the U.S. economy, at least for the time being, which is in line with a recovery from the Pandemic Recession.

April 23, 2020 - The lower the interest rate, the more appealing the product is for consumers. But interest rate cuts are not intended to bring about a recession. The Fed raised rates from March 2022 to July 2023.

January 28, 2025 - We build recession odds models for each of these vectors and then average the outputs.10 The resulting output shows that the likelihood of recession in the next year is just under 30%. We think this is too high because (as we’ve discussed) ...

United States has been in recession since 2022.

Basic Statistic Everyday purchases consumers are putting off due to inflation in the U.S. 2022 ... Premium Statistic Expected causes of the next recession U.S.

July 28, 2022 - The U.S. economy shrank in the last three months by 0.9%. This is the second consecutive quarter where the economy has contracted. In the first quarter, GDP, or gross domestic product, decreased at an annual rate of 1.6%. While two consecutive ...

Conclusion The post-Covid economic backlash, in conjunction with faltering external economies and global conflict will directly impact US domestic interests, foreshadowing an emerging recession in the next 18 months with implications for consumers ...

Real retail sales are currently ... April 2022 (data through September 2025) Real personal income is currently 0.08% off its all-time high from April 2025 (data through August 2025) It's difficult to discuss the behavior of the big four leading up to the "COVID" recession - it likely ...

September 22, 2021 - Some define a recession as two consecutive quarters of declining Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. However, more complex formulas are often used. The accepted arbiter of a recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), considers a variety of measures to determine a recession’s timing and length.

December 27, 2022 - What they do agree on is that the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies will be the trigger for the recession, while it was the central bank that rode to the rescue after the last two downturns. "Usually recessions sneak up on us. CEOs never talk about recessions," said economist Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics.