Primedope
primedope.com › poker-variance-calculator
Poker Variance Calculator - Primedope
Poker Variance Calculator for cash games. Displays variance, possible downswings, upswings and probabilities depending on your win rate.
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Reddit
reddit.com › r/poker › primedope variance calculator
r/poker on Reddit: PrimeDope Variance Calculator
November 29, 2019 -
I am currently at 71.5BB/100hands over approximately 1500 hands live.
According to this calculator site, my chances of running at or above an observed win rate of 30BB/100hands are 94%.
How much should I read into this? Does this site actually do a good calculation of finding true win rates or is it just kind of b.s.?
Top answer 1 of 4
3
Could not be falser. 1500 hands is nowhere near enough to make an accurate assumption of winrate.
2 of 4
2
If NLHE results followed a completely Gaussian distribution , it would be fairly unlikely to observe that winrate over 1500 hands if your "true" winrate was marginal or losing. That's what the calculator is implying. I've seen evidence that poker results do tend to culminate into a bell curve. The problem is it makes too many assumptions. Player pools are not consistent. The quality of your play over 1500 hands cannot be extrapolated infinitely. Maybe in the future you face harder decisions than you have thus far. Maybe you start getting bored. Maybe you'll succumb to tilt when you hit a bad downswing. The idea of true winrate is kind of bogus, which is why you can't put too much stock into confidence interval calculators.
Twoplustwo
forumserver.twoplustwo.com › two plus two forums › other topics › probability › primedope variance calculator - bb is big blinds or big bets?
Primedope Variance Calculator - BB is big blinds or big bets? - Gambling and Probability - Probability Theory Forum
I have been using the variance calculate here: https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/ They use BB/100 which I assume mean big bets per 10
Primedope
primedope.com › tournament-variance-calculator-legacy-version
Tournament Variance Calculator (legacy version) - Primedope
Legacy Tournament Variance Calculator. Please refer to the current one: » Tournament Variance…
Primedope
primedope.com
Primedope - Online Poker Tools and Great Stuff
Useful resources for Poker Players & Online Poker Tools: Poker Variance Calculator, Tournament Variance Simulator, ICM Calculator and Pushbot-Charts.
Conscious Poker
consciouspoker.com › home › bankroll management › how to use a poker variance calculator
How to Use a Poker Variance Calculator | Conscious Poker
December 30, 2019 - PrimeDope suggests using 60-80). Lastly, I estimated that our pro plays a very modest 10,000 hands per year (plays 25 hands per hour x 8 hours per week x 50 weeks per year). Again, I aimed to simulate the opportunity cost between cash games and tournaments, as in the previous example, one who plays 50 tournaments a year will play one per week and average roughly 8 hours of poker. Here are the results from the poker variance calculator...
Primedope
primedope.com › wp-content › themes › primedope › embeds › tournament-variance-calculator-legacy.html
Tournament Variance Calculator Legacy Version
Combined distribution · Compare tournaments
Primedope
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About Primedope: Poker Tools, Guides, & Tips - Primedope
Primedope.com is your one-stop destination for all things poker and beyond! Our website offers a comprehensive suite of poker tools, guides, and resources to help you improve your game and make informed decisions at the tables.
BBZPoker
bbzpoker.com › home › the truth about variance in mtts: lessons from bbz’s toy game
The Truth About Variance in MTTs: Lessons from BBZ's Toy Game - BBZPoker
October 23, 2025 - To better understand and prepare ... from PrimeDope. This free online tool lets you input variables like buy-in, field size, and payout structure to estimate your expected variance and the likelihood of downswings or upswings over a given sample....
Run It Once
runitonce.com › nlhe › question-about-variance
Question about variance | Run It Once
I played almost 71k hands at NL2 and my winrate is 18.94bb. I put in Primedope variance calculator for real winrate 10.15bb and for observed winrate my current winrate at nl2. Primedope says that t
GTO Wizard
blog.gtowizard.com › home › variance and bankroll management
Variance and Bankroll Management | GTO Wizard
February 29, 2024 - Variance is measured with the “Standard Deviation” metric. You can find this metric in most poker HUDs, but it can also be calculated directly from your results. For cash games, this is measured in BB/100. Let’s look at some examples. The following charts are examples of 20 random runs given a set of inputs (credit: Primedope...
CardsChat
cardschat.com › forum › poker discussion › online poker › poker software & tools
Tournament variance calculator | CardsChat
September 10, 2020 - https://www.primedope.com/tournament-variance-calculator/ Giving back to the site that has given to me over the years. This is a GREAT tool for determining what should be good game selection and what is more-or-less shot taking. The reality is you will notice you are going to lose much more in larger field events than if you play smaller fields.
GipsyTeam
gipsyteam.com › poker › poker-variance-calculator
Poker Variance Calculator Guide for Beginner Users | GipsyTeam.Com
September 28, 2024 - If you want to know how to find the variance calculator, there’s a free version you can use on PrimeDope.com.
PokerStrategy.com
pokerstrategy.com › news › content › The-impact-of-rake-on-poker-variance_128251
News: The impact of rake on poker variance
August 30, 2023 - Rake is such an important consideration in game selection that I wanted to run a test using the variance calculator at Prime Dope to see how significant a rake decrease is.
GipsyTeam
gipsyteam.com › poker › software › pokerdope
PokerDope’s Basic and Free Online Poker Tools | GipsyTeam.Com
February 12, 2024 - This calculator shows your expected up and downswings of a certain period of hands. After inputting some information into the variance calculator, you can project your win rate over 100,000 to 10 million hands.